This went out to clients and our email distribution list on Monday, June 30, 2009 . . .
I appreciate all of the emails I am still receiving. I just can't respond to them all. So here is a BIG THANK YOU for your emails wishing me a speedy recover, etc. For the record, I am recovered better than the doctors expected. At just two weeks after surgery, I was back at work, driving and doing just about everything. I can't lift things or get out in my kayak yet, but I'm continuing to get better every day.
When it comes to the markets, nothing has changed. We are witnessing the absolute grand theft of the United States of America. Guys like Paulson, Blankfein, Summers. Emmanuel, Lewis, Dimon and hundreds like them at the top are feeding in the trough of your money, savings, pensions, IRAs, 401ks, insurance policies, etc. There is nothing we can do to stop them at this point, and I still believe it will eventually end very violently here and abroad. If not this year, then next year. And the only reason it is not happening this summer, is because Obama has managed to print more money than anyone thought . . . and he's been able to hypnotize the masses with promises he can never keep. I just don't understand how he can live with himself . . . unless the rumors are true, and he is something from the dark side.
I would love to start actively trading the accounts again, but there are still too many traps. We've been making some trades, but our track records is 50/50 on trading. I don't want to trade just to trade. One of my clients is very upset that we are not trading like we were back in the fall of 2008. Well, that was a different time and we had wild swings that made some sense. Now we are at the mercy of rule changes and insider trading that goes beyond the scope of anything we have ever seen. When I see the right opportunities, we will once again be trading as much as we can, and as much as makes sense.
I thought we were headed lower after the market performance last week. So we put on a lot of trades . . . and the market turns around and marches higher. It was interesting to see all of the techies bounce in, then out, then in, then out. They lost a lot of money, but worse was how they reported their losses. I watched as they reported trades they could not have made based on the volume and time of trades. Nor did they mention the cost of commissions on these trades. Overall, they did not have a good couple of weeks.
One service got into a position, but within 30 minutes was recommending to get out with a small loss. They did this three times in two days. These were not hitting Stop limits, but rather based on how the overall markets were performing.
I hope my Mojo is back so when the markets do present trading opportunities again, we can take advantage of them. My basic positions have not changed. Despite the recent analyst upgrade on Starbucks, I think this is one of the best shorts you will find. But beware, Goldman Sachs may find a sucker (I mean buyer) to scoop this piece of ka-ka up at a premium price.
And despite the recent analyst upgrades on the financial (banks, insurance, REITs) these guys are in very deep trouble . . . with more bad news to come. The run up in some of the builders is simply more fiduciary money being pumped into these stocks so Wall Street can dump expensive stock into pension funds, endowments and other fiduciary money.
Let me note something about the builders. They have crossed the line, to the point where they are no going to begin to burn the cash they have accumulated. We still have more homes than we have people to live in them. And the flood of foreclosures has not even started. I am not sure about what CC (Crazy Cramer) has been saying, as I have not seen or read him in more than two months, but remember how bullish he was on a housing bottom this summer. If it's a bottom, it is a false bottom. There is a tremendous amount of bad news coming in this sector, and they are also dealing with a looming disaster from Chinese Drywall litigation.
I will close with gold. I am still very bullish on the gold miners and I really like our portfolio or stocks. It's a great mix. By the way, if you missed it, Germany is going to have 500 vending machines selling gold. You will be able to buy gold, just like you by a soda pop. We'll see how far that gets, considering a 30% premium to spot. But the point is this . . . the demand for gold will grow as the "global" crisis deepens. If you believe Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) are in great shape and ready to explode, you've been drinking the Kool-Aid. Everything . . . and I mean everything I hear from these four countries is NOT promising. In fact, they have so over done the hype, that they only have two choices . . . find a way to hyper-hype or begin to fall apart like the rest of the world.
Well, that's it for now. I promise to hold a conference call in July. I'd love to talk about Eastern Europe, Africa and the EU, but my arms are still weak overall. I just can't type what I would like until my upper body has healed up more. Next week I am in New York on business. I will try to do a conference call the following week. In fact, I will set it up and send you the registration link.
Regards,
Mike
Real Estate Website - www.FloridaHomes.PRO
Financial Website - www.Morgan7.com