(LAKE TAHOE REAL ESTATE BLOG) We did this one earlier too, after a boat load of questions about, well you know, "what do you think the market is going to do?"

(We'll call this our "duh" interlude here, its stating the obvious, but we're going somewhere with this one... to set up our next detailed study.)

There are basically three avenues the South Lake Tahoe real estate market will take in the foreseeable future. The numbers tell us we’re close to stabilization. Like that or not, it’s what the numbers, using median sold price, looking behind us over six months, say.

Is it possible we will see further home value decline? Certainly, but we are not picking up statistical evidence of that presently (here). We do have a good question coming, though, about the possibility that more decline is already here, hiding in plain sight.

Our foreclosure study indicates, it should be noted, there has actually been less decline in South Lake Tahoe home values than was originally thought (here).  What this data shows is the importance of isolating the effect of foreclosed home sales out of the rest of the South Lake Tahoe market.

Is it possible the market will go up? This too is possible, anything is, but this is about as unlikely, for example, that the South Lake Tahoe real estate market will follow prognostications in the slew of national real estate reports earlier this month of 20% further declines in the median sold price.