Thin summer trading conditions, uncertainty about the impact (or lack thereof) the government's current stimulus initiatives will have on the forward looking economic picture together with lame activity levels in the stock market are all combining to support steady to fractionally lower mortgage interest rates this morning.  

The trajectory of mortgage interest rates to lower levels is heavily reliant on a steady diet of "bad" economic news.  Next week's schedule of government reports does not appear to offer much that will upset the steady to fractionally lower mortgage interest rate applecart. 

Tuesday's 8:30 a.m. ET release of the June Producer Price Index figures is expected to show a rather "hot" headline increase of 0.9% -- but most of the upward surge is likely a function of temporarily higher gasoline prices.  The core Producer Price Index, a value that excludes the more volatile food and energy components, is expected to show a rather benign 0.1% increase in the measure of prices paid at the factory gate. 

Concurrent with the release of the May Producer Price Index -- the Commerce Department will provide a read on last month's Retail Sales activity.  The consensus estimate among economists indicates a lukewarm 0.4% gain for both the headline and ex. auto component of this data series.

Wednesday's 8:30 a.m. ET release of the June Consumer Price Index is expected to parallel the earlier Producer Price Index figures.  Headline consumer prices likely climbed 0.6% last month - driven by higher prices at the pump.  Excluding the more volatile food and energy components, the so called "core" consumer price index is expected to post a very modest 0.1% gain. 

Thursday's 8:30 a.m. ET release of the weekly initial jobless claims figures and Friday's 8:30 a.m. ET release of the June Housing Starts and Building Permit figures will round out the week's economic data offerings.   Claims for first-time jobless benefits are expected to have grown by 15,000 during the week ended July 11^th -- while the pace of both housing starts and building permits probably remain little changed from the prior month's levels.

If next week's economic data matches or closely approximates the projected values -- they are almost certain to produce little, if any negative impact on the current level of mortgage interest rates. 

Today's conforming 30 year fixed rate is at 5.125%.