I know the article naming Church Hill as the 10th Most Dangerous Neighborhood in the U.S. has caused an uproar, especially among people who live there and love it. And one commenter has noted that she feels much safer in her Church Hill neighborhood than she does in the Fan or Museum District. So it got me to thinking....
What is the truth about crime statistics in Richmond's urban neighborhoods? Is Church Hill safer than the Fan? Was the article naming Church Hill the 10th Most Dangerous Neighborhood in America unfair and based on inaccurate information?
NOTE: In the interest of full disclosure, I freely admit to being a total Fan groupie. I've lived here for more than 12 of the 15 years that I've been back in Richmond post-college and Big Easy, except for about 2.5 years near the University of Richmond while I was in law school. And I've been in my current house on a side street between Floyd and Grove since 1999. I'm a single mom with a young daughter and perhaps I'm naive, but I've never felt afraid in my home or my neighborhood. But this topic comes up a lot, and often from suburbanites concerned about the big, bad City. So I'm curious about the actual facts on City of Richmond neighborhood crime statistics.
Here's what you can do: You can go to the City of Richmond Police Department and search the crime statistics various ways - by census tracts, civic association, council district, neighborhood association, etc. Here is a link to the Crime Incident Information Center.
But here's what I see as a problem: I can't figure out a way to compare apples to apples, because I cannot find on the City of Richmond Police Department web site a break-out of Sector Crime reports, which would give a more accurate comparison of neighborhood vs. neighborhood. I think precinct crime reports are too broad. And using the neighborhood civic association category isn't really a good tool, because how do you define a specific neighborhood? For example, you have to figure out on the front end what you are calling "Church Hill." I realize it is probably not technically accurate, but when I refer to "Church Hill" I am including all of Church Hill, Union Hill, North Church Hill, and Chimborazo. The Fan doesn't pose the same problem, because it as a neighborhood is very specifically defined with very explicit boundaries, a result of the entire neighborhood being on the National Register of Historic Places.
So, back to the point raised by the commenter, who feels much safer in her Church Hill neighborhood than the Fan or Museum District - Is Church Hill safer than the Fan? I dunno. I can't find a way to compare Sector 313 (Fan, Randolph and Maymont) to Sector 111 (Union Hill, Oakwood, Fulton, Church Hill, Church Hill North, and Chimborazo), which I think would provide the fairest comparison.
BUT, If I run JUST Precinct One (including Church Hill) vs. Precinct Three (including the Fan) back for one full year exactly, to July 6, 2008, get the following:
- Homicide: 5 vs. 1
- Sex Offense: 22 vs. 29
- Robbery: 55 vs. 57
- Assault: 342 vs. 339
- Burglary: 74 vs. 153
- Vice: 366 vs. 217
- Theft: 265 vs. 645
- Vehicle Theft: 69 vs. 72
- Other: 1697 vs. 1875
Interesting stuff. The homicide rate in Precinct One is five times greater than in Precinct Three, but the total number of homicides overall is (thankfully) relatively small, six total. There is a higher incidence of sex offenses in the area that includes the Fan, and you are more than twice as likely to be burgled. Incidences of robbery, assault, and vehicle theft are relatively equal across both Precincts The number of vice offenses - drugs, weapons, and prostitution, I suspect - is substantially higher in Precinct One, but the number is thefts is almost three times as great in Precinct Three. And I have no idea what the "Other" category entails, but there is more of it in the Fan than Church Hill.
I will admit I didn't scour the data and I didn't dissect the methodology for collecting the Richmond Police Department's crime statistics. But, Church Hill isn't looking so terribly dangerous to me, unless I'm missing something.
So dig through the data yourself, and draw your own conclusions. And as always, feel free to share your conclusions or your thoughts in a comment. I always publish them, unless I am specificall asked not to do so.
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