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The $300,000 South Lake Tahoe, CA Home, Then and Now.

By
Real Estate Agent with McCall Realty

It's better for Buyers in South Lake Tahoe than one might think.Does one get More for their Money Now than Before, and if so, How Much?

This is a study to determine if one can get more home for their money in South Lake Tahoe today than before. If so, the next important question is how much more, and is it quantifiable?

To best do this we’ll focus on the two most objective factors available to look at the value of a home, which is its size and price per square foot. Lets also look at other more subjective factors such as condition, age and the availability of a newer home.


One gets a lot more house for the money in South Lake Tahoe these days.Since we’ll be looking at market-wide data, “location” will be part of the mix, but lets not highlight that specifically here.

(We will prepare a custom, extensive look at the market, that very much includes location, for you anytime. This is our “value workup", which is used to best advise a listing price for Sellers, or to best assure that a buyer dos not pay too much. example here)

A Bridge over Disconnected Waters? 
As many of you may know, we continually update South Lake Tahoe market conditions via reports that track the median sold price, and any changes thereunto (here).

What sparked this new study are a few recent comments coming from these median sold price reports (here). What these sentiments reveal to us is there is a disconnect with some potential buyers between what the market is, and what they expect it to be.

To goal of this study then is to see if we can bridge that gap between buyers expectations, much of which is fueled by national real estate news, and current market reality, which is determined by tracking the median sold price.

What We Know So Far: 
At present we have seen a 15% decline in the median sold price in South Lake Tahoe since our market highs in 2005/2006 (here).

We also know that a third of this decline is due to foreclosed home sales in 2008 alone (here).

South Lake Tahoe home values have declined more than one might think.The New Study: 
Normally we look at price segments in $50,000 increments. This is how we look at and break down South Lake Tahoe housing demand, or absorption rates, over time (here).

For this study, we think looking at market segments in $100,000 increments will be sufficient to determine how much more house one can get for their money these days.

The $300,000 South Lake Tahoe House Then and Now: 
Please look at the chart below, which details the average characteristics of a home purchased from $300,000 to $399,000 since 2003.

Also note the last column in the chart, with its numbers  in red . These are the same, comparative characteristics for houses currently listed. It is from this chart that the following is revealed:

  • On average, the $300,000 South Lake Tahoe house available right now is listed 10% lower than it was in 2006.
  • On average it takes 91% longer to sell a $300,000 South Lake Tahoe house than it did in 2005.
  • On average the square foot value of a the $300,000 South Lake Tahoe house that is available today is 19.3% lower than it was in 2005.
  • The $300,000 South Lake Tahoe house that is available today is 27% larger than it was in 2005.
  • On average the age of the $300,000 South Lake Tahoe house is about the same today as it has been since 2004. It is some 6 years newer than the average age of a house sold in 2006 and 2007.

What it Means:The Bottom Line
Our assumptions are correct: the $300,000 house in South Lake Tahoe, CA is more than 25% larger, and priced nearly 20% lower in square foot value than homes sold at our market high.

Coupled with the15% decline in the South Lake Tahoe median sold price, this represents at least another 20% decline in value as found in the average home listed in the $300.000 price range today.

We use the term “at least” above because the homes currently listed in South Lake Tahoe in any price range, including this one, will be sold at a further reduction in both current listed price and, correspondingly, price per square foot.

It appears that much, if not most, of the additional declines in home values as predicted in recent national real estate news reports are already factored into the home values of current South Lake Tahoe listings. (Rather than being found exclusively in the median sold price, it’s hiding in plain sight!)

South Lake Tahoe home sales in the $300,000's since 2003.

Comments (3)

Michael Eisenberg
eXp Realty - Bellingham, WA
Bellingham Real Estate Guy

Great to see you back here at AR again, your grasp of statistics is still amazing.

Jul 13, 2009 10:18 AM
1~Judi Barrett
Integrity Real Estate Services 116 SE AVE N, Idabel, OK 74745 - Idabel, OK
BS Ed, Integrity Real Estate Services -IDABEL OK

Gary,  How are things in the Lake Tahoe area?

Sep 18, 2009 12:31 PM
Rosemary Brooks
BMC Real Estate - 209-910-3706 - Stockton, CA
The Mother & Daughter Realty Team

I love the way you know your market. Great post

Dec 19, 2009 10:56 AM