•·                The risk of lasting home price declines has increased in Dallas-Fort Worth as foreclosures and job losses mount in North Texas, a new report says.

But there's a "minimal" chance that D-FW home prices will be lower in two years than they are today, according to the latest study by mortgage insurance firm PMI Group.

Dallas and Fort Worth rank among the U.S. cities that are the least likely to see a drop in home prices in PMI Group's first-quarter risk report released Tuesday.

Dallas' housing market has only a 3.8 percent risk of lower home prices two years from now, the analysts said. In Fort Worth, the likelihood is 5.8 percent.

That compares with a 65.5 percent risk of overall lower home prices in the 50 largest U.S. cities, researchers said.

"Increasing unemployment and foreclosure rates - coupled with continued high excess housing supply and pressure from the severe recession - continue to place downward pressure on house price appreciation," PMI researchers said.

The risk of falling home prices rose in the first quarter in 45 of the country's 50 largest metropolitan areas, including Dallas and Fort Worth.

Dallas' home price risk is up from 2.5 percent a year earlier. The Fort Worth risk index moved up from 2.5 percent a year earlier.

"The recession is hitting everywhere, so risk is rising in most places," said PMI chief economist David Berson. "However, it is still relatively low in the metroplex."

The highest home price decline risks are in California and Florida cities, including Riverside, Calif., Miami, and Los Angeles, which all have a 99.9 percent likelihood of seeing lower home prices in two years.

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The Dallas Morning News
July 8, 2009