Don't believe what people say. Look at the empirical evidence. The stimulus package was signed into law by President Obama on February 13 of this year. Human nature attests when people do not know or understand what is transpiring , they often do nothing. This certainly has been true of the real estate market since the August presidential conventions. Once the stimulus bill passed, the Tucson market began to emerge from hibernation---not because of the stimulus bill, but because people understood government action.
The chart below shows the total unit sales for each month between January 2009 and June 2009. There is an 85% increase in total unit sales from the January numbers to the June numbers. Putting the numbers further into perspective, this represents more units sold in a month since July 2007 when 1182 homes closed escrow. Althought on one hand, this is good news, we will see tomorrow, prices have declined dramatically. The monthly inventory in June is 18.5% + less than January. Each month, inventory has been steadily decreasing. Decreasing inventory bodes well for a stable market.
Total new listings also decreased almost 20% since January. Pending contracts have risen by 52% from 941 in January to 1432 in June. These numbers further indicate the housing inventory is gradually decreasing.
This is all good news for the Tucson real estate market.
| January | February | March | April | May | June | |
| Total Unit Sales | 613 | 693 | 923 | 931 | 1024 | 1139 |
| Total Units on Market | 7694 | 7532 | 7415 | 6890 | 6506 | 6261 |
| Total New Listings | 2361 | 1799 | 1989 | 1703 | 1704 | 1892 |
| Pending Contracts | 941 | 1020 | 1208 | 1345 | 1302 | 1432 |
According to the Tucson Multiple Listing Service, the monthly comparision of the types of properties which sold, is as follows:
| Type of Property | Jan-09 | Feb-09 | Mar-09 | Apr-09 | May-09 | Jun-09 |
| Single Family /New Construction | 518 | 577 | 771 | 774 | 851 | 968 |
| Town House/New Construction | 44 | 53 | 74 | 80 | 80 | 84 |
| Condo/ New Construction | 16 | 34 | 30 | 30 | 45 | 54 |
| Manufacture Single Family | 28 | 24 | 39 | 29 | 33 | 28 |
| Mobile Homes | 7 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 5 |
Once again we see an increase in the sale of single family homes, townhomes, and condominiums. Manufactured homes and mobile homes are a much smaller part of the housing inventory. Sales remain steady at the January levels during the subsequent six months.
Tomorrow: Pricing
Resources:
Tucson Association of Realtors - June 2009 Residential Sales Statistics
http://www.tucsonrealtors.org/tar-v2/MLS_Stats_June.pdf
Statistics come from the June housing report produced by the Tucson Association of Realtors prepared by Scott Weidamoyer.
This was posted to my website blog this morning July 14. 2009, http://www.terrybishop.com
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