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Everyone wants to know when we've hit bottom... and many people, including NAR's chief economist have called bottom much too early. But, today, I say, "Yes, San Diego has hit bottom" with a few caveats, such as all the shadow inventory we hear that the banks may have is not simply dumped on the market tomorrow or that when the CA moratorium is over that we don't get hit with a ton of foreclosures and this is on a city-wide basis, so there may still be certain zipcodes that suffer a little longer. (I am getting signed up for the new RETS IDX information so that I can break things down to the zipcode level.)
Why? Well, let me not answer why we're at the bottom, but rather why I believe it is true. No, it is not due to listening to any of the talking heads, but instead is based on tracking the statistics and interpreting them as shown in the following chart. (I'll have to add more charts in later posts.)
We can clearly see in this chart (for San Diego as a whole) spanning from March 1995 to June 2009 the bubble and its popping. But the key part is the last five months. March 2009 appears to be our bottom. Since then is has been sharply upward. Interestingly, its upward motion shows more of a "V" shape than a "U" which many experts told us to expect.
Now, we naturally have seasonal effects, but the bounce here far exceeds those adjustments. I expect we'll get leveling or even some decline this fall, but as we are concerned with the overall activity, this sure looks like the bottom.
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Robert T. Boyer, Ph.D.
San Diego's Finest Real Estate
RobertBoyer.Realtor@gmail.com
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Robert T. Boyer, Ph.D.
Licensed Realtor® #010791063
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on Has the San Diego Housing Market hit bottom? Yes (with caveats)
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The San Diego Real Estate Housing Market tends to lead the nation's real estate activities. This blog looks at current activity and trend data, including sales rates, months of inventory, median home price, unemployment, inflation, etc., with an intent to provide timely predictions for our market. Because such a large part of the current market is make up of San Diego Foreclosures and REOs we will also look deeply at how they affect the current environment. Additionally, specific market segments are monitored, such as La Jolla Real Estate, Del Mar Real Estate, Rancho Santa Fe Real Estate, and Carmel Valley Real Estate
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Just from the information I gather in the process of doing home inspections and working with my marketing & business Clients, I put the bottom at January 2009, whereas you got March. What's 60 days? Unless you're trying to close escrow -- LOL.