For those of you who read my last post and disagreed with Deutsche Bank's report that nearly 50% of all mortgages will be underwater by 2011, a recent AP report may be more up your alley, so long as you don't think a rising tide of foreclosures will negatively impact property values.

The AP writes, "It was - note the past tense - the worst housing recession anyone but survivors of the Great Depression can remember."

The recent AP article goes on to say, "By every measure, except foreclosures, the housing market has stabilized and many areas are recovering, according to a spate of data released in the past two weeks".

"By every measure, except foreclosures"?

Are foreclosures no longer responsible for driving home values lower?

Are foreclosures no longer an integral part of that pesky supply and demand relationship which drives home values?

How is it possible to determine the health of the housing market without considering the volume and direction of the number of foreclosures?

If there are more foreclosures than there are buyers entering the market, isn't this something that should be considered?

According to the NAR, while existing home sales have risen for four consecutive months on a seasonally adjusted basis, they are still down -0.2% from June of 2008 to June of 2009.  On the other hand, according to RealtyTrac, foreclosure filings are up 33% year over year in June.

 

 

  

 
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9 Comments on AP: "Welcome to the bottom: Housing begins slow rebound"

AUG
08
Outside Blog

You raise an interesting point. What does it do to market value for an area if all the comps are foreclosures? Good post.

6:17pm • #1
Outside Blog

While Texas did not get hit near as bad as Florida and California, we are still hurting.  I am so ready for the rebound!

6:39pm • #2
114,371 Points 1 Featured Post

Mark, I'm not going to hold my breath waiting for this great rebound I keep hearing and reading about. What I see is not the same as what I read and hear in the media. Sorry to sound so negative, but I call it as I see it.
Sue

6:45pm • #3
144,004 Points 13 Featured Posts

I could buy that argument except that because of the high unemployment rate we will see those good credit, but lost their job foreclosures hitting the market this fall and winter.  How much of an impact depends on many things.

7:05pm • #4
234,137 Points 9 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

It's all about jobs.  Without job growth, we may be floating on false optimism.  The government is doing all they can to prevent real job growth; thus, most are scared to hire, including me.  We have to wait for that lagging indicator to get into the positives for a few months.

7:51pm • #6
346,382 Points Outside Blog

Hi Mark

Florida has a little more to go, but we are moving in the right direction.

Good luck and success.

Lou Ludwig

10:21pm • #7
AUG
09
178,248 Points 13 Featured Posts

Cindy:  Good question.  If nothing else, I would think it will certainly keep a "roof" on home values.

Liz:  Agreed.  Texas has faired really well.  But now we are moving into a phase of prime defaults caused by job losses.  This may change everything for a lot of markets.

Suesan:  I agree completely. 

Melina:  High unemployment, mortgage resets, and rising mortgage rates over the next couple of year will complicate things.

Patricia:  Indeed.  See above.

Tim:  You said it best.  While it is hard to believe, "The government is doing all they can to prevent real job growth", you are correct.

Lou:  I agree.  FL, CA, AZ, and NV have seen the largest improvements in terms of their relationship between the demand and supply for housing.

 

 

 

8:46am • #8
AUG
19
300,857 Points 3 Featured Posts

Numbers are in the eyes of the beholder. It would be nice if we went by the same standards wouldn't it.

6:33pm • #9

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Mark MacKenzie

Phoenix, AZ

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Mark MacKenzie Real Estate Planning

Office Phone: (480) 600-0330

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