Orignially posted on Tim and Julie Harris.com

Do you actually believe that the housing markets have reached bottom? (I know that some of you do…)

Please consider this.

If you DO believe that the housing markets have reached bottom  (and they haven’t) you won’t be prepared for what is happening next. You may be lulled into complacency and when the next waves of foreclosures hit you will be taken by surprise.

We have been telling you…warning you…heck pleading with you to learn the skills that this market requires.

STOP waiting for the markets to ‘return to normal’…..agents, this is the new normal. THIS market is the market that we will be in for years….don’t be afraid, be prepared.

Remember, this market is about agents who have the mindset of being of service and the skillset to serve.

Lets take a look at Las Vegas. Yesterday a blog reader asked me this question:

“Where are all of these foreclosed properties in Las Vegas?”

So, lets take a look at what is happening in Vegas.

Through June, financial institutions acquired 6,472 real estate-owned properties and sold 11,254, the broker-owner of Residential Resources reported. Las Vegas-based SalesTraq showed REO inventory declining from nearly 16,000 in January to 13,200 in June.

The banks’ voluntary foreclosure moratorium, combined with increased investor activity in Las Vegas, and the $8000 first time buyer tax credit have resulted in a home sale surge homes listed for less than $250,000. This increase in activity has allowed many agents (investors and buyers) to believe that the markets have ‘reached bottom’ and the worst in depreciation is behind us….

That’s about to change.

After the moratorium was lifted in March, bank-owned acquisitions jumped 55 percent in May and nearly 40 percent in June.

Its been reported that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac foreclosures could increase by 400 percent to 500 percent by the end of the year. In a public statement the Fannie and Freddie has reported that they have well over 100,000 already foreclosed on homes being listed for sale soon.

Agents, learn NOW how-to become a REO Listing Agent. Don’t believe for a second that the REO listings are in anyway ‘locked up’. There is still time for YOU to become a REO listing agent. Watch the FREE Agent REO Secrets video now and then download your FREE how-to list REOs book.

Another report recently published estimated that there will be 13,000,000 foreclosures over the next 5 years alone. To support this prediction a recently released report showing that the there are nearly 3,000,000 homeowners who are 60 days late. Why is this important? 90%+ of the time when a homeowner misses 2 payments they are headed for a foreclosure sale (or short sale).

Although the first two waves of foreclosure losses came from subprime loans and borrowers who defaulted when their adjustable-rate mortgages reset — many of them speculators — the next wave will be prime loans, said Whitney Tilson, principal of New York-based investment firm T2 Partners.

Watch this video for more details about the Tilson’s report...

In a recent interview with the Review-Journal Tilson stated:

“These defaults will be due to job losses and home price declines that have left one-fourth of homeowners “underwater,” owing more on their mortgage than their house is worth.

What we’re seeing in housing is prime borrowers and people who weren’t speculating now starting to default,” Tilson told the Review-Journal. “There are sobering implications for expected defaults, foreclosures and auctions in 2009 and beyond, which promise to drive home prices down further.”

June housing data for Las Vegas alone showed 12,545 properties for sale  and 12,821 properties in escrow, awaiting closing. Of those for sale, 3,266 are bank-owned and 5,296 are short sales, homes offered at less than the mortgage balance and requiring lender approval. In other words, more than 50% are Short Sales and REOs.

The actual number of homes available for sale in Las Vegas, including foreclosures and short sales, is much smaller than the 20,613 units reported by the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors, industry observers say.

Las Vegas-based business advisory firm Applied Analysis is showing 13,028 properties listed as available for sale, down 9,224 units, or 41.5 percent, from a year ago. About 5,100 units are identified as short sales, which leaves about 7,900 units available for sale in a normal transaction.

According to CNBC 83% of ALL homeowners in Las Vegas are UPSIDE DOWN. In other words, if those homeowners need to sell they must list with an agent who knows how to list and sell short sales. Clearly, short sales are the make money now opportunity. Watch the FREE Agent Short Sale Secrets video…and grab the Short Sale Secrets crash course book.

The number of units in contracted status — either contingent or pending — has risen dramatically in recent weeks to 13,456, Applied Analysis reported. Contingent sales (9,681) are contingent upon some other action taking place, while pending sales (3,775) are awaiting customary closing procedures.

Las Vegas continues to rank as one of the nation’s most distressed areas for foreclosures.

For the first six months, Clark County foreclosures rose 84.3 percent to 23,588 from 12,800 in the year-ago period, Sacramento, Calif.-based investment advisory firm Foreclosures.com reported. Preforeclosures increased 34.8 percent to 47,467 from 30,922 a year ago.

Estimates for the next wave of foreclosures in Las Vegas range from 20,000 to 30,000 homes.

The Obama administration’s $75 billion Making Homes Affordable Plan and lenders’ commitments to loan modifications have accomplished little to stem the tide of foreclosures, statistics show.

Since 2007, fewer than 500,000 loan modifications have been completed, according to the Center for Responsible Lending. Meanwhile, 60-day mortgage delinquencies surpassed 2.5 million and total foreclosure starts are approaching 3.5 million.

Realtors, re-read those last numbers. THOSE are the potential Short Sales and REO Listings…..you don’t still believe that housing has reached bottom…do you? Learn how to become a REO Listing Agent. The greatest wave of foreclosures is still coming. Learn NOW how to become a REO Listing Agent. Watch the FREE Agent REO Secrets video then download the FREE How-To List REOs Book!

Keith Ernst, the center’s director, in testimony before Congress, said that 1.5 million homes have already been lost to foreclosure, and that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Another 13 million foreclosures are expected over the next five years.

Again from the Review-Journal, Egbert Oostburg of San Diego-based Project HomeWatch said  “banks are also holding back REO inventory in California and Arizona. It’s that hidden wave you keep hearing about. When is it coming? That’s the question,” he said. “We’re going to hit bottom eventually, but as long as the state and federal government put in these false bottoms, we’re not going to move forward and reach the true bottom.”