Why the South Bay is Bubble Proof

In our weekly sales meetings at South Bay Brokers, we are definitely seeing a market improvement.  Well priced homes in good locations are selling VERY quickly, often within 3 or 4 days of listing and quite often with at least 3 to 4 offers.  We saw, in our office, a 45 percent improvement in dollars in sales for February of 2007 over February of 2006, and there were more total  numbers of houses as well as more expensive houses making up that increase.  While I don't think that all these market economists who are on the NBC Nightly News and CNN are a bunch of dummies, I think that we all have to realize that they are talking about Real Estate in the nation as a whole, not the lovely little micro-economic-climate that is the (dare I say it) Fabulous South Bay. (couldn't help it -- see me at www.FabulousSouthBay.com !) We have a very unique combination of circumstances here that are acting together to keep our prices strong and our market moving along despite what all those PhD's say.  First, we have an extremely desirable location.  Mother Nature isn't making any more perfect weather, with the cleanest air in the Los Angeles Basin, ocean views (or at least ocean breezes), and so many outdoor things to do.  Second, we have an extremely strong local economy, with jobs coming from big defense contractors like Northrop, Boeing, and Raytheon, high-tech firms like Accenture, CSC, and Oracle, the entertainment industry, with Raleigh Studios and lots of screenwriters, producers, agents, entertainment lawyers, etc, choosing to live here, and finally international trade with the Pacific Rim, driving lots of business in the downtown Financial District.  The South Bay is an easy commute downtown on the 105 Freeway from most locations, is close to LAX for those "road warrior" consultant types, isn't TOO far from Hollywood and Burbank for the entertainment moguls, etc.  And let's not forget some of the finest public schools in California.  For example, Mira Costa High School and Peninsula High School are ranked in the top 20 high schools in the United States!  So when you add all these factors together, the dreaded "real estate bubble bust" just isn't coming here -- at least, that's what  I think.  The market seems to be proving me right.  When the homes are well priced and well staged, they are going FAST!
 

10 Comments on Why the South Bay is Bubble Proof

Why because they all work for evil denfense contactor's

& kill babies in the middle east!!

05/18/2008 02:07 PM by Markangelo


I am sorry you feel that way -- I worked for a defense contractor for many years and most of us felt that we didn't fire the weapons and we didn't set the mission, we just tried to make sure they worked well when our troops needed them and that they were produced as cheaply as possible so that less of the country's budget would have to go towards producing them.  I am also very against the war and think it is a damn shame we are over there.  I think it is the most misguided, wrong, illegal war we have ever engaged in, and I too grieve for the thousands of lost lives, both U.S. and Iraqi.  But I don't blame the defense contractors and their employees for it, I blame the current administration and the people who voted for them.

05/18/2008 02:21 PM by Lauren Perreault


Dont blame me I just work here ??

 

U sound like a Wall Mart clerk.

 

Or everybody else in Amerakill but cant win.

05/18/2008 03:30 PM by Markangelo


If you can't be civil, I don't want to discuss this with you.  Please go troll somewhere else.

05/18/2008 04:37 PM by Lauren Perreault


Sorry but the bubble was already burst !!!

05/18/2008 06:53 PM by Markangelo


Trolling? Must have hooked a big fish;

but at at least I wasn't churning the market

with pie in the sky promises about the real estate future.

Oh I forget U only work there & could not have known.

Oh yes the "My Three Son's" syndrome;

"we live the good life because daddy works for defense".

When was the last south-bay down turn ?

When the Berlin Wall fell.

Before that it was in the seventies

after the Vietnam peace.

Yes we live good when there is a war going on

whether cold or hot.

Now the Iraq war is winding down

& oh my housing prices are going down also.

Of course the south-bay always votes to protect their pocket books

& U know what that means. Iran

05/18/2008 08:32 PM by Markangelo


Average price of Single Family in Manhattan Beach in 2005:  1,472,500, 2006:  1,550,000, 2007:  $1,625,000

Redondo Beach:  2005:  831,500,  2006:  $835,000,  2007:  850,000

Hermosa Beach:  2005:  1,102,500, 2006: 1,115,000, 2007: 1,199,000

These weren't 'Pie in the sky promises".  No one can make promises, but I do have data to back my claims up.

Source:  DataQuick

THAT's what I meant by bubble proof. 

And if you think the Iraq war is winding down, clearly you haven't been reading the papers.  The only way it will be winding down is if we don't elect McSame. 

Also, if you read the whole blog, the point of it was that there are multiple sources of employment in the South Bay, not just the defense industry, including hi-technology consulting, (including environmental consulting, which will be increasing), Hollywood, Pacific Rim trading, international finance.

05/18/2008 09:22 PM by Lauren Perreault


Short sited 3 years of data.

I thought an investment was at least 10 years.

Where U promoting flipping ?

Yes churning is illegal.

And the south bay is McCain country.

Yes the south bay is a great place to be

but it is not bullet proof

even if it is surrounded by the

Torrance Police Department

05/19/2008 11:36 AM by Markangelo


I don't promote churning, it's destructive to ultimate Real Estate market and unethical.   I don't think flipping is a good thing now, unless you want to live in the house at least two years in order to take advantage of capital gains shield of $250,000 per person.  When prices were rising rapidly, flipping, which I define as improving a property by adding value and then reselling within a year, rather than the illegal kind of flipping where a property was simply bought and then resold without any changes a few months later by hiring illegal appraisals, was a good idea because the rising tide could carry the carrying costs.

You don't know the South Bay if you think it is McCain country. It's Democrat country. Jane Harmon is our Representative and has been for years.  It also went for Gore and Kerry in last two Presidential elections.

I have years of data all showing good investment. If anyone else wants to see it, please contact me.

05/19/2008 05:37 PM by


Did U even tell your customers that there was a downside at all ?

Perhaps U didn't even live in the south bay at that time but

I suggest "The Last Great Southern California Housing Slump"

http://www.elliottwave.com/features/default.aspx?cat=mw&articleid=3171

It affected the south bay also. I am sure U by now know of your competition

http://sbbeachbubble.blogspot.com/

     Yes Jane Harman , the typical resident,

a democrat in name only. Like most SBs a social liberal

but a econ conservative.  Although I am having trouble finding figures

I am not so sure the SB didn't vote  for Bush '41 & '43 & of course Arnie.

In this map they show up pinkish red like Orange county.

http://64.233.167.104/search?q=cache:0VJdl44L4PgJ:flanalytics.com/Work%2520files/Fall%2520Line%2520Analytics%2520-%2520California%2520Precinct%2520Political%2520Index.pdf+2004+presidential+results+by+precincts+in+LA+county&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=9&gl=us&client=firefox-a

I always feel like I live in the mid west instead of 0 miles from Hollywood;

just look at the films in the theaters, the same as the ones U would see in Idaho !!

Another good thing to read is Joan Didion's new book "Where I Was From"

05/23/2008 01:02 PM by Markangelo


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Real Estate Agent: Lauren Perreault (South Bay Brokers, Inc.)
Lauren Perreault
Manhattan Beach, CA
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South Bay Brokers, Inc.

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