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The Fallacy of the Price per Square Foot Method

By
Real Estate Appraiser with Appraisal House Texas

"What is the price per square foot?"  In my job as a residential real estate appraiser, I hear this repeated almost daily.  Other variations include "my neighbor sold for $ (x) per square foot", or "the average in my neighborhood is $(x) per square foot".  Almost always, these comments and questions come from people who are unhappy with the valuation of their home.  Unfortunately, the price per square foot method is very rarely a reasonable indication of the true market value of a property.

Let's look at the basics:  The price/sf is determined by dividing the sale price by the number of square feet of living space (also known as the GLA, or Gross Living Area, which is the attached air-conditioned space of the house).  So a 2,000sf house that sells for $200,000 has a price/sf of $100.  So does this mean that all houses in the area should sell for this multiplier?  Of course not, because there are many variables to consider beyond the total square footage.  If one house is on a larger lot, it should be worth more.  If one house has a pool, it should be worth more.  If one is substantially newer or is of superior original construction, it should be worth more.

An appraisal, at its root, is simply the methodology used to determine the value of the sum of the parts based on what "the market" (buyers) are willing to pay for those parts.  So for every feature of your property, imagine that the exact same house sits right next door.  It was built the same day, using the same materials, by the same builder, on the same size lot, with the same views, is the same floor plan, has the same number of bedrooms and baths, the same floor coverings, cabinets, appliances, garage spaces, etc.  The only difference is (for example) that yours has a fireplace and the other one does not.  It is our job to determine how much value the market gives to that fireplace.  Or perhaps the differing feature is a 3rd garage space, a covered patio, an extra bathroom, etc.  The point is, your house may be very similar to other recent sales, or it may be vastly different.  The more unique your home, the less valuable neighborhood price/sf statistics are.

Many people in the industry will say that the price/sf is not supposed to exactly zero in on your home's value, but it can be used to give you a pretty good "ballpark" idea.  I disagree.  To prove my point, I analyzed the last 30 appraisals my company performed and calculated the low and high range of price/sf for each comparable sale used, the average price/sf, and the differential from the actual price/sf of the subject property.  The results show that only 66% of the properties were within 10% of the average price/sf of the comparable sales.  So as a home seller, would you be comfortable using that method, knowing that you had only a 66% chance of being within 10% of the market price of your home?

A wide variety of factors influence the value of your home besides the actual size.  Do you have a better view than other recent sales?  In some neighborhoods one-story homes sell for more than similarly-sized 2-story homes.  If your home has only 2 bedrooms, it will not likely sell for as much as a similarly-sized 3-bedroom home.  Do you have a large covered patio?  A 3-car garage when most have only 2?  Do you have a pool?  Is your landscaping significantly better or worse than most of your neighbors?  Is your house on a busy street while other recent sales are on quiet culdesac lots with little traffic?  As you can see, there are a wide variety of factors that influence the value of your home. 

When is it a useful indicator?  If can be a reasonable indicator when you have a home that is very similar to every other house in the neighborhood.  If your subdivision was built by one or two tract home builders over a short period of time, with few options or upgrades available, then it is likely that your home's value is in line with other recent sales in the area.  If most of your neighbors have 2-story homes with 1-side brick veneer, 4 bedrooms and 2 & ½ baths, carpet in the living room and bedrooms and sheet vinyl flooring in the kitchen and baths, the same size lot, and are pretty similar in size and age, then it is probable that you are pretty close to them in terms of price/sf.

However, if you are in an area where the sizes, ages, levels of original construction quality, or levels of updating and condition vary greatly, I would highly recommend getting a formal appraisal done, or at least get a detailed CMA (competitive market analysis) from a trusted and knowledgeable Realtor.

Comments(6)

Jesse Skolkin
Independent New York State Certified Real Estate Appraiser - Fresh Meadows, NY

Mike:

I have found price/sf to be most reliable when working with condo and coop units in high-rise buildings in the NY Metro area (Manhattan, downtown Brooklyn, Riverdale, etc).  It can be useful when the subject unit has an unusual size or room count compared to recent sales in the subject development (as an indicator of the adjustment required to compare a two bedroom unit to a three bedroom unit, for example).

However, even under those circumstances the statistic can be misleading at times, as some units have water views, are on more desirable higher floors, or have been recently renovated, and is no substitute for an opinion from an experienced professional familiar with the subject market.

Aug 14, 2009 01:33 AM
David Mescon
DAVID B. MESCON REAL ESTATE APPRAISER AND CONSULTANT - Kailua-Kona, HI

Mike,

I've written ad nauseum about this on a few occasions.  I agree with you that price/SF is generally a poor indicator of value.  I have found it to be helpful in determining upper and lower price trends in certain markets, but even in those instances, I never consider it to be more than a general guide.  Case in point, I appraised a luxury condo a while back, which had a contract sale price of almost $1,500 per SF.  I ended up appraising the unit at just under $1,000 per SF.  The highest unit price of any of the comparables was under $800 per SF.  Sometimes the home we're appraising really is the nicest one in the neighborhood - this was one of those times.

Aug 14, 2009 02:18 PM
Mike Lay
Appraisal House Texas - Austin, TX

Jesse,

Yes, I agree that it can be a corroborating statistic at times, but the concept is so pervasive in the real estate industry (perpetuated by lazy/incompetent agents, IMO) that it drives me nuts.  I wrote this specifically to respond to the occasional angry homeowner/seller/realtor that calls me to complain.  I have never heard a word from them after sending it.

David,

According to every seller I've ever talked to, I have never appraised a home that ISN'T the nicest one in the neighborhood! 
;-)

 

Aug 14, 2009 03:19 PM
Sara Goodwin
Estimation Nation Corporation - Portland, OR
Portland, Oregon Appraiser

All you have to do is look at the range in the price per square foot in just about any of my appraisal reports (especially if they are on acreage or have basements) to see how the price/sf method (which AVMs use) of determining value in this area is not at all adequate. 

Fortunately it seems as if other RE professionals as well as consumers in the area put little if any weight on price/sf.

Aug 17, 2009 05:01 AM
David Jirasek
Jirasek Realty, LLC - Temple, TX
ALC, CCIM

Mike, good post. The adjusted price psf can vary either way, depending on which matched pair analysis you use, from prior research, which varies greatly. When anaylized, most adjustments can be proved to have, or to not have, much, if any, impact on value, thus changing the ppsf outcome, especially in rural properties. I'm currently considering what impact difference the room count adds, or takes away, if only a room or two different from subject, and the amount of adjustment that can be applied, if any, because it is already adjusted in the sf adjustment. The interior of most comparables have not been personally viewed by the appraisers using them, to observe the roomcount (or other differences), therefore forcing reliability on assumption that the Realtor has inputed the data correct, or if at all, and any sizes of the room. Sometimes, the square footage is reported differently from the current sale comp, prior sale comp(s), builder, fee appraisal, tax records, or Realtor's measurements. Collectively, the adjustments determine the outcome of the ppsf, the subject is estimated to have, by the appraiser, and to some degree are subjective opinions as to contributory value of adjustments made. Appraiser's never determine value, only estimate it. However, in cookie cutter subdivisions with homogenous homes, the sf method works fine.

Nov 06, 2009 10:01 PM
Andrew J. Lenza
Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage - Holmdel, NJ

You know your stuff. 

Jan 10, 2010 12:41 PM