Note: This is a follow-up on last weeks blog post When Will Home Prices Rebound (2020..2030..Longer?). Read that post on TimandJulieHarris.com now.

 

Breaking News: Negative Equity Data from First American CoreLogic shows that Nearly One-Third Of All Mortgages Are Underwater.

Here are the bullet points….

• More than 15.2 million U.S. mortgages, or 32.2 percent of all mortgaged properties, were in negative equity position as of June 30, 2009 according to newly released data from First American CoreLogic. As of June 2009, there were an additional 2.5 million mortgaged properties that were approaching negative equity. Negative equity and near negative equity mortgages combined account for nearly 38 percent of all residential properties with a mortgage nationwide.

• The aggregate property value for loans in a negative equity position was $3.4 trillion, which represents the total property value at risk of default. In California, the aggregate value of homes that are in negative equity was $969 billion, followed by Florida ($432 billion), New Jersey ($146 billion), Illinois ($146 billion) and Arizona ($140 billion). Los Angeles had over $310 billion in aggregate property value in a negative equity position, followed by New York ($183 billion), Miami ($152 billion), Washington, DC ($149 billion) and Chicago ($134 billion).

• The distribution of negative equity is heavily skewed to a small number of states as three states account for roughly half of all mortgage borrowers in a negative equity position. Nevada (66 percent) had the highest percentage with nearly two?thirds of mortgage borrowers in a negative equity position. In Arizona (51 percent) and Florida (49 percent), half of all mortgage borrowers were in a negative equity position. Michigan (48 percent) and California (42 percent) round out the top five states.

There are some interesting tables and graphs in the article that inquiring minds are investigating. Here are some partial alphabetical lists.

Negative Equity Share

core logic 2 Breaking News: Nearly One Third Of All Mortgages Underwater!

Property Values and Loan-To-Equity Ratios

Core Logic1 Breaking News: Nearly One Third Of All Mortgages Underwater!

Nevada, not shown has a near-negative equity share of 68.9% and a Loan-To-Value ratio of an amazing 115%!

Mortgages – Select States

  • California has $2.4 trillion in mortgages debt. 42.0% of the properties have negative equity.
  • Florida has $923 billion in mortgage debt. 49.4% of the properties have negative equity.
  • Illinois has $447 billion in mortgage debt. 29.4% of the properties have negative equity.
  • Arizona has $298 billion in mortgage debt. 51.0% of the properties have negative equity.
  • Nevada has $149 billion in mortgage debt. 65.6% of the properties have negative equity.
  • Nationwide there is $10.1 trillion in mortgage debt. 32.2% of the properties have negative equity.37.6% of the properties have “near-negative” equity.

Summary……32-37% Of All Mortgage Holders Are Stuck, Unable To Sell. What does this mean for Realtors? Simple, if you are not listing and selling Short sales you are making it so you will be cut out of nearly 40% off all available listings? Get started NOW, watch the FREE Agent Short Sale Secrets video and grab your FREE Short Sale Secrets crash course book.

California alone has $2.4 trillion in mortgages debt. 42.0% of the properties have negative equity! Nearly half of all home owners (with Mortgages) are upside down in their homes!

Nationwide there is $10.1 trillion in mortgage debt. 32.2% of the properties have negative equity, another 5.4% are nearly underwater. Don’t believe the green-shoots story…we are no where near the end of this real estate correction.

If underwater sellers want to sell they have 3 choices:

1) Foreclosure.

2) Bringing cash to the closing to make up the difference between what is owed vs what the home sells for.

3) Short sale. For many reasons a short sale is often the best solution for the seller. Clearly, there is an enormous demand for agents who know how to do short sales. Agents, watch the FREE How-To do short sales video now.

When will the housing markets recover to peak 2006 values? Experts are expecting the recovery to take 10+ years. Read this story here.

We have been warning HREU students for over a year that the biggest wave of foreclosures would come in late 2009…early 2010…
And it appears that we were correct.

Realtors: its NOT too late for you to become a REO listing agent. The biggest opportunites to make money listing and selling REOs (bank owned homes) has yet to come. Watch the FREE Agent REO Secrets Video NOW. Learn how to list REOs.

California Foreclosures

California Foreclosures Breaking News: Nearly One Third Of All Mortgages Underwater!

Nationwide Foreclosures

hanson+nationwide+foreclosures Breaking News: Nearly One Third Of All Mortgages Underwater!

California Pent Up Foreclosure Demand

hanson+pent+up+ca+foreclosures Breaking News: Nearly One Third Of All Mortgages Underwater!

Why will the foreclosures (and REOs) hit harder now than ever?

  • The number of people underwater in their mortgages is increasing NOT decreasing.
  • The stigma of a foreclosure is all but gone. Now if you lose your home to a foreclosure you are called a ‘foreclosure victim’.
  • The reported nationwide unemployment figure is 9.4% with the real unemployment above 16% and rising.
  • Wages are falling.
  • The jobs market will suffer losses for another year.
  • Notices of Default and Trustee Sales are high and rising.
  • People now see ‘walking away’ from their homes as a prudent financial move vs. being irresponsible.

Agents, what do you think....? What will happen to how people think about real estate...owning a home...if 50% of all homeowners (with a mortgage) are upside down? Share your thought, post your comments:

 
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31 Comments on Breaking News: Expected Over 50% Of All Homeowners Underwater in Their Homes!

AUG
18
326,687 Points 5 Featured Posts Outside Blog

This is some amazing numbers. .thanks for taking the time to put it together. . I'm "twitting" your report

3:19am • #1
AUG
20
608,237 Points 244 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

Those figures are staggering!! My micro market is truly suffering. Almost everyone purchased with low to no down payments and now values are down close to 70% over ther last 3 years. It's going to be a long time before we are out of this mess.

7:16am • #2
178,248 Points 13 Featured Posts

Awesome report.

This is reason number one why this recession/recovery is going to be protracted.  You can't have a normal economy or banking system when 1/3, soon to be 1/2, of all mortgages are under water.

8:09am • #3

My local market has only 5% upside down according to recent news reports.  We're in a bubble and we know it! Glad I'm not in one of those locations that have really been smacked by this mess.

11:06am • #4

I realize that HREU is the lone voice in the Realtor education space when it comes to passing along this type of info.

My thinking is that even if we make agents turn away because they don't want to hear the truth...in the long run they will be thank-ful.

We need to accept and be prepared for the fact that this market is the new NORMAL. Its going to be a long time before the market is anywhere near stabilized.

Thank-you to those of you who 'get it'.

Tim

Tim and Julie Harris
11:10am • #5

It truly is sad to see as this market really is as close to as a depression as you are going to get.  We are in denial that it is here.  We are told that it is not and we believe. 

So many have had their lives destroyed by this.

It definatley is not a fun topic to discuss, but it is reality.

11:19am • #6

Tim,

Our local market has seen some stabilization over the past few months we have actually seen an increase in the average selling price while inventories have reduced by approximately 20% during that time.

One interesting point:  Although we see the Lis Pendens in the court records the homes don't seem to be making their way to the retail market.

Any thoughts?

Thanks for providing this interesting information.

Ray

11:22am • #7

Ray,

Working on a new blog post about this very topic now....here is a tease:

"Mortgage Delinguencies Reach Record 9.24% as prices fall"

Will be on the blog shortly.. TimandJulieHarris.com

James,

I 100% agree. These are historic times. But, we CAN help...agents can make a difference. If all this economic pain started with real estate its our collective jobs to learn how to help. Short Sales, REOs...and...dare I say...at least understanding Loan Mods. Those are the new 'tools' that every agent must have in their toolbox.

A quick word on loan mods. Agents need to at least understand how they work. For no other reason than:

1) Agents can mod their own loans.

2) Know how to advise their clients about the ins and outs of doing a mod. If your past clients come to you asking about a mod you should be able to at least understand the process and have the skill set to point them in the right direction. If you don't (for whatever reason) want to do the mod yourself at least you were able to help.

Hope all of this help!

Tim

Tim and Julie Harris
11:38am • #8

Thank you Tim & Julie...excellent, excellent information.  I have re-blogged your article...thank you again for sharing :)

12:22pm • #9

THANKS!

Check this out....just posted this to the blog....new info:

http://timandjulieharris.com/2009/08/20/real-estate-coaching-training-are-we-at-the-bottom-of-the-housing-market/

Tim

Tim and Julie Harris
12:29pm • #10

It is in the best interests of our clients to stay ahead of the "news". Those of us that are in the trenches and see what is happening can tell that the market is so far from being over the slump!...what about all the popular 5/1 arm loans that were selling like hotcakes in 2005??...they all adjust next year...hmmmm smells like a whole new wave of short sales to me.

12:44pm • #11
Outside Blog

UGH. I knew the numbers were bad but did not know they were this bad. Thank you for the great info, Sandy

12:56pm • #12

Tim, Truly staggering statistics. Not a suprise that Nevada, Az and California are at the top of the list.

I recall Nevada had like a 53% increase in 1 year which made no sense. Lots of Loan mod's still need to be done. I negotiated my own here in Socal last year. Part of the problem is that some lenders are not extending the loan mod's long enough. I have heard many of them doing short term fixes like 5 year terms....Makes for more problems down the line.

 

Thanks, Dan

Dan Chapman
2:19pm • #13

Hi Dan,

Yep, they are doing sort-s half baked mods in some cases. We are seeing this as well. And I agree, this is indeed the new normal in terms of the housing markets.

 

Tim

Tim and Julie Harris
3:30pm • #14
345,907 Points Outside Blog

Yes - you are in Nevada and we are in Arizona and both of our states are some of the worst hit by this mess.

5:45pm • #15

Tim--As usual, you and Julie have done an outstanding job researching and summarizing the data.  I,too, am concerned about the 'band-aid' loan mods and what will happen in five years.  May just be a setup for more failure.

6:43pm • #16
Outside Blog

Thank-you Barbara!

What we have been telling all of our students is....

"Stop Waiting For The Market To Return To Normal....THIS IS The New Normal"

Its interesting to see how agents behaviors change for the better when they accept the fact that this is the new normal..vs being in a constant holding pattern.

Tim

6:51pm • #17
104,909 Points 3 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

Wow - so sad and so scary!!!  I heard this news elsewhere today as well and it just makes me cringe.  So many people are in this position...

11:15pm • #18
AUG
29
156,123 Points

What are we as real eatate agent going to do if this many people need to selll and have to sell short? What will the banks do?

3:04pm • #19
408,296 Points 74 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Not to be a wise ass or nothing and this information is good stuff but I kind of knew this already...my area is a shambles...even my own home...if I had to sell it now I'd have no choice but to bring money to closing and I put down 40%...lost a quarter of a million in cash trying to do the right thing. So now I'm just going to grieve my RE taxes if they think my value is 50% lower.

4:37pm • #21
Outside Blog

Hi Sandy,

Not what will they banks do....its what they ARE doing.

The banks are preparing for more short sales, faster closings. They know what is going on

and they are adding staff etc. Wachovia has been doing 30 day from contract to close short sales

for a while now (in central Cali)...full commission, 2-3 forms from the seller...thats it.

Listen to the Superstar interview we did with Russ Shaw...300 closings this year...almost all

are SS. There are many agents across the US who are closing vastly more sales in this market

than they did in the previous sellers market.

If you are not doing droves of SS yet...start here:

Agent Short Sale Secrets

Hope all of this helps!

Tim

 

4:38pm • #22
Outside Blog

Hi Neal.

Nothing wrong with being a wise-ass....better than the opposite :)

The real numbers....what is really happening...vs the (BS) we are being fed... IS amazing.

In most markets if you aren't doing short sales...as in 25-30 listed...closing 5-10 per month...

you won't really have any business. In Russell Shaws market (Pheonix) close to 70% off all

available business (listings) will require a SS or they are on the slow march to foreclosure.

If you get a chance..give that Shaw Superstar Interview a listen.

Tim

 

4:44pm • #23
104,909 Points 3 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

Such sad statistics - wondering when this is all going to turn around...

6:53pm • #24
Outside Blog

It is sad.

Harder times than most of us have ever experienced. Makes being a Realtor and knowing how to

help folks through these times even more meaningful.

How long will it last...how long will it take for housing to recover to peak prices?

Read this:

http://timandjulieharris.com/2009/08/24/housing-values-house-values-real-estate-bottom-bubble-burst/

7:53pm • #25
Outside Blog Hit Router

These are mind boggling numbers, and hard to comprehend. How much upward movement is required before we reach a "normalcy" amount of underwater values?

8:01pm • #26
Outside Blog

Hi Dave,

The answer is...time. And a lot of it.

http://timandjulieharris.com/2009/08/17/how-to-list-reos-bank-owned-homes-realtor-coaching-training/

Check that post out...and we have many others on the blog on the same topic.

Bottom line, best case for some markets 7 years....most markets...10 years....and some markets will never recover

to their peak 07 prices.

Depressing...if you don't have the skills and the mindset that this market demands.

Tim

8:19pm • #27
2 Featured Posts

Wow, this is alot to think about and absorb.  I wonder how this is effective in our area.  I am going to study this more.  Thanks

8:40pm • #28
586,960 Points 63 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Tim and Julie, I have heard of this skewing by the handful of states but the worst ones do have numbers that are incredibly bad as far as percentages.

9:03pm • #29
Outside Blog

Hello All,

Please do as Donna suggested and study your market.

Next, understand that this is no longer a sub-prime issue/ sand states issue...this is a country issue.

And its getting worse. Lots of information on the HREU Blog: Tim and Julie Harris.com

Don't panic, be prepared. Thats the bottom line. The fact is that agents with skills and the mindset to be

of service will have no shortage of buyers and sellers that need them. In every market in the US...right now...

the fastest way to get into action and make a difference..for your makret place, your community and YOURSELF

is to learn how to list and sell short sales. We have been preaching this for what seems like forever but, its more

important now than ever. Check this link out: http://www.AgentShortsaleSecrets.com

Hope all of this helps,

Tim

11:00pm • #30
1 Featured Post Outside Blog

This is really scary and sad for all of those owners who are underwater or will be soon.  Thanks for all of the interesting statistics.

 

11:11pm • #31

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