Thirty year mortgage rates have been moving lower over the past week and are currently at about 5.0% + or - depending on all the loan variables.  Many of you know that over the past month rates moved as low as below 5% for 30 year fixed mortgage loans and as high as just under 6.0%.

After a few days of pricing pressure, Mortgage Bonds are trading near "oversold" conditions, which could make prices ripe for a reversal higher.  If you couple that with the strong underlying support, it gives reason to be optimistic that the rates will mover lower in the near future.  I'm watching very carefully and will be advising my clients to lock if the rates move down to around 5%.  For nearly every home owner, a rate around 5.25% is probably at least .5% lower than their current rates and for loans $250,000 or higher the minimum monthly savings is around $78.  That's nearly $1,000 annually.  What are you waiting for?  

 One thing we are listening to carefully is talk in the trading pits about the return of inflation.  Word is that if Obama's stimulus and rescue packages do indeed work and get the economy headed in the right direction - inflation could gather steam rather quickly.  This is why over the past three days, the Treasury market has been decimated.  Mortgage Bonds - while trading lower - haven't lost even a fraction of the ground that Treasuries have lost, likely due to the Fed's buying of Mortgage Bonds.  This is something worth paying attention to, as a spike in inflation may make it harder for the Fed to drive mortgage rates much lower through their purchase program.

If this economy begins to recover, even the slightest hint of improvement, the mortgage rates will climb to over 6% in a heart beat.  So at this point my position is to take a very conservative stance on the future of lower rates.  I'm going to assume that if we see something around 5% anytime soon that's about as good as it's going to get.

Many of you are still hoping that rates will drop into the 4% range.  It's not likely the Fed will be successful in making that happen.  So get off the fence and make your move.  You'll be more upset if rates go up and you miss what you could have gotten than if you refinanced and the rates went .25% lower.  Don't trip over dollars to pick up pennies.