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The Housing Market has not hit bottom yet

By Michael Pinter

Mortgage and Lending with First Meridian Mortgage

August 25, 2009 03:16 AM

For all those raving fans who were impressed that the Case Shiller Price index decreased by 15% instead of the 16% that was expected; Keep in mind: It's still going down!

I have been saying that it will take until 2011 for the market to start to rebound. Apparently some other peopel feel it will take even longer.

A recent report by PMI says that they predict that 60% of the top Metropolitan Statistical Areas have a greater than 50% chance of lower home proces in the first quarter of 2011. I have no idea how they came up with those numbers, but here's a quote from the report:

"Rapidly rising foreclosure and unemployment rates, continuing declines in house prices and weakening consumer demand all worked to increase risk in the general economy and the housing market."

I hope 2011 will be when things get better, but 2012 is looking like a possibilty.

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Brian Schulman

Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage, Lancaster PA - Lancaster, PA

Lancaster County PA RealEstate Expert 717-951-5552

With another round of foreclosures, crushing national debt, and inflation atound the corner, we haven't seen the end of our problems by a long shot.

Aug 25, 2009 03:19 AM

Sabrina Solesbee

Solesbee Group - Laguna Beach, CA

Fact is nobody reallys knows. It's all speculation mixed with some bean counters opinion. Some areas will bounce back earlier & the other's will eventually follow. It is the Real Estate roller coaster....what goes up must come down... & it goes back up slowly, up, up, up untill the next big down! Isn't it fun?

Aug 25, 2009 03:20 AM

Michael Pinter

First Meridian Mortgage - Brooklyn, NY

Brian,

I agree with you completely, there is too much bad news for things to get better yet.

Aug 25, 2009 03:24 AM

Sabrina,

Thanks for the comment. I agree that nobody knows. Let's hope things get better sooner rather than later.

Carlos Morales

Re/Max Homes and Estates - Irvine, CA

Hello Michael

I think the rebound is different in each state, I don't know if we are at the bottom in California but it is a Buyer's War here. Buyers bidding in an average of 60K dlls more of the listing price and cash buyers are winning all the homes!

Carlos

Aug 25, 2009 03:25 AM

Carlos,

That sounds great. All Real Estate is local and certain areas will do better than other for sure. My post was about the national housing market. Thanks for the comment.

Aug 25, 2009 03:28 AM

Dave Humphrey, Broker

RE/MAX Marketplace - Celebration, FL

Real Estate Advice You Can TRUST!

Michael,

My long experience in businesses tells me that you will only know the bottom has been reached after it has, and is higher. Predictions are not worth more than the tea leaves they are made from. I think someone who buys now will be richly rewarded later. Will they have picked the bottom? Unlikely, but will they have made a smart purchase? Highly likely!

Aug 25, 2009 03:29 AM

Jeff Glick

BCHloans - Dunwoody, GA

I agree that with the new rush of foreclosures getting ready to hit and the unemployment that we have not seen the bottom. I had a conversation yesterday and the person said "the media was quick to put us in worse shape than we were at the time and they are quick to make things appear better before they really are". I keep leaning more on what my business partners, friends and sphere of influences are saying and doing - this is my litmus test.

Carlos, I can imagine that cash is winning; not sure with HVCC you could get an appraisal to "fly" when paying greater than asking price; I would not pay more than appraised value regardless of purchase price.

Aug 25, 2009 03:34 AM

Dave,

You are absolutely correct. We won't know about the bottom until after it isgone. Thanks for the comment.

Aug 25, 2009 03:36 AM

Jeff,

I agree with the statement about the media 100% Thansk for teh comment.

Aug 25, 2009 03:41 AM

_ _

You won't really read that in the media, but I have to agree. There's still a lot fundamentally wrong with this economy and the govt.'s efforts are unsustainable. Having said that, I guess we're all hoping for things to get better fast.

Aug 25, 2009 12:07 PM

Jason,

Thanks for the comment. Let's all hope for teh best.

Aug 27, 2009 02:00 AM

The Housing Market has not hit bottom yet

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