Lawrence Yun Predicts San Diego Market Recovery 

I Googled San Diego Real Estate this morning and saw the top rated spot was a news article from the Union Tribune, Real Estate Expert: San Diego at Leading Edge of Recovery. The Real Estate Expert they site in the article is Lawrence Yun the Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors.

Yun is known for making many blunders and erroneous predictions in the past.

Check out http://www.lawrenceyunwatch.blogspot.com/ for some in depth research on Yun's other predictions and faux pas. I'm a big fan of laying all the facts out on the table for anyone buying a home in San Diego County. A prediction like this headline needs to have all the facts including the ones behind the scenes. 

The article Real Estate Expert: San Diego at Leading Edge of Recovery bases the recovery on rising prices and sales. Yun states that there is only a 2.5 month inventory of homes for sale and new home construction sluggish. He said that the demand is strong. In an excerpt from the article Yun confesses: "He began with a confession about how he missed the real estate bubble of 2004-06. Surely, the system had enough checks and balances to avoid a runaway market, he thought at the time. "I was clearly wrong," he said." My concern now is what else is Yun overlooking through assuming that others have checks and balances in place.  

In the UT Article, "He also predicted that foreclosures will continue at high levels for the next 12 months because of the weak economy. But unlike last year, he said this year's foreclosures are being snapped up in many markets, including San Diego." The market in many areas of San Diego is saturated with many short sales. Many of the short sales have homeowners in them not making mortgage payments and in the foreclosure process while trying to short sell their home. I think the foreclosures at high levels will carry on well past 12 months. Related Blog Post : http://www.responsiblelending.org/mortgage-lending/tools-resources/new-foreclosures-by-state-for.html  

Many agents and asset managers speak of the tidal wave of foreclosures that are coming. I wonder why the banks are holding back all of the foreclosures that should be on the market. If the foreclosures are being held back and not put on the market for sale then there is a false sense of inventory. They are foreclosed on or will be soon but the homes are intentionally not being made available to home buyers. Why? Maybe this is to stabilize and firm up the market. But is this real or false stabilization? 

The question is by doing this is it creating another problem of false values like the bubble we just came out of. I don't know but the information needs to be out there for potential home buyers so they have all the facts when buying. Let's face it, when NAR says something the news and the public listens. Let's make sure they have all the facts not just the talking points for getting buyers to buy homes. 

Is this last spike in sales and home prices in San Diego due to the mass of foreclosures being held off the market and only a trickling of foreclosures being released for sale? Is there a Great Wave of foreclosures coming? Just do a Google search for REO Tsunami and you will have plenty to read. 

I think it is a great time to buy a home in many areas of San Diego County in certain price ranges. I think interest rates are low and the $8,000 tax credit is a helping hand for first time homebuyers. I also think that a home buyer needs to be aware that there are many more foreclosure due to hit the market and the word on the street is that the banks are holding back many foreclosures. If you are considering a home purchase in San Diego do your homework and gather all of the facts.

Union Tribune Article - http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2009/aug/19/real-estate-expert-sd-leading-edge-recovery/

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