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Outsmart the Crowd: Skip the $8000 Tax Credit and Wait to Buy

By
Mortgage and Lending with Platinum Home Mortgage Company NMLS #238304

You are a first time buyer who has a sore butt. Why? Because you have been sitting on the fence all year long.

Could you be the smartest first time homebuyer out there?

Consider what happened when CASH for CLUNKERS overheated the demand for cars  (just like the FIRST TIME HOME BUYER TAX CREDIT overheated demand for entry level houses).

Before Cash for Clunkers, dealers had huge rebates on cars. They were willing to discount the cars by several thousand dollars just to get someone, ANYONE, onto that empty showroom floor.

The car market was in the toilet and cars were dirt cheap.

Along comes a $4500 handout from Washington to manipulate stimulate car buyers.

And that's when things started to get twisted.

  1. Rebates disappeared almost overnight.
  2. Dealers were no longer willing to discount the cars.
  3. As supply shrunk, a frenzy of buyers lost their heads, bought anything on the lot, and paid over sticker for the car...just to get their clunker cash.
  4. The real price of buying a car went up.

Is the real estate market a little twisted right now? What do you think?

  1. Agents everywhere talk about extreme lack of inventory for entry level houses.
  2. Multiple offers are the norm for lower priced properties.
  3. Across the country, stories about prices going up and the market turning around (even though it is well accepted that there is a foreclosure wave right around the corner).

So you. Yes you, the one with the sore butt. Keep sitting and watch what happens.

You could get a much better price on a house by letting the first time homebuyer tax credit JUST DIE while you continue to JUST SIT on that fence.

Picture this: Its a rainy cold day in December and everyone else is focused on the holidays.  But not you. You're finally off the fence, you sly fox you, and the world is your oyster.

You can take advantage of all this:

  1. Sellers are desperate.
  2. The competition has disappeared. 
  3. Prices drop.
  4. You have no pressure to buy and can be choosy about properties

If you save $20,000 on your house, do you care if you sacrifice an $8000 tax credit?

Probably not. (But don't expect anyone in the real estate industry to talk about this until AFTER the rebate ends).

 

 

 Written by Janet Guilbault, Mortgage Banker/Broker Based Out of the San Francisco Bay Area

Comments(162)

Anonymous
Arthur Carlson

Totally agree!  Currently in Southern California there is a buyer frenzy and a lack of properties, mostly driven by desire for the credit. Calls from the internet and lead systems have increased alot mainly due to desire for the "free" money. Too many buyers chasing few properties. Bank owned properties that are in process for trustee sale,  that are NOT currently in the mls will shoot through the roof during the next six months as they come into the banks inventory.  Keep your powder dry ie cash and FICO scores to be ready to take advantage.   Better deals on the horizon. 

Sep 09, 2009 08:33 AM
#145
Janet Guilbault
Platinum Home Mortgage Company - Walnut Creek, CA
San Francisco Bay Area Direct Mortgage Lender

Re Comment #143 (Bad Advice) Why so hostile and confrontational?

It is not advice, it is an opinion. I am not suggesting that real estate agents advise clients to wait. I think our job as professionals is to make sure clients are aware of all the alternatives.

I am pointing out that overstimulation can lead to a frenzy. At that point, rather than jumping into the game, a buyer might consider alternatives to buying inside of a frenzy.

Clearly from the comments, you can see that markets all over the country have reacted differently to the tax incentive.

BTW: Eating too much icing can give you a sugar high.

 

Sep 09, 2009 08:51 AM
Anonymous
Bad Advice

To Janet Guilbault, Re: Your Comment #148

Janet, you did not come out and title your blog "Playing Devil's Advocate: Something to Think About."  

You most certainly DID present this nonsense as ADVICE, not just an "opinion".  Besides, what is the difference??  If I ask my doctor's "opinion" about a health issue, guess what... there is a very good chance that I will take that "opinion" and put it into practice-- the same as if I had asked for actual "advice".  Wouldn't you?  So what is the difference? 

Do you not expect people (consumers) to value your opinion?

Consider your wording, Janet:

The Title of your blog is:  "Outsmart the Crowd: Skip the $8000 Tax Credit and Wait to Buy."

In the blog you clearly state:  "So you. Yes you, the one with the sore butt. Keep sitting and watch what happens. You could get a much better price on a house by letting the first time homebuyer tax credit JUST DIE while you continue to JUST SIT on that fence."

" Keep sitting and watch what happens."  How would that not read like ADVICE to someone in the general public who doesn't know any better than to take it seriously?

At the very least your blog could have come with a disclaimer that says:  "The 'opinion' to follow only covers about .5% of the market where we might wildly guess at widespread price reductions in excess of $20,000 in the entry level market following the end of the tax credit.  So, please do not HOLD YOUR BREATH while you continue to just sit on that fence."

Maybe they need to invent a little "Devil's Advocate" icon that people can put at the top of their blogs to alert consumers that the 'opinion' to follow is at least half nonsense.

 

Sep 09, 2009 09:41 AM
#147
Janet Guilbault
Platinum Home Mortgage Company - Walnut Creek, CA
San Francisco Bay Area Direct Mortgage Lender

you did not come out and title your blog "Playing Devil's Advocate: Something to Think About."  

Nor would I. What a lame headline.

If I ask my doctor's "opinion" about a health issue, guess what... there is a very good chance that I will take that "opinion" and put it into practice

If a client asks me for an opinion, then my opinion would be based on the actual situation specific to the client (just like a doctor) If you are going to use the doctor analogy, then it would be like researching your ailment on the Internet. If a doctor suggests an alternative treatment, that is something to consider, not something you believe is your absolute cure.

My blog says you "could" get a better price. Not you "will" get a better price. And for the record....I don't believe in disclaimers. Clearly my market is California and clearly this is my opinion.

At least I am willing to sign my name to my opinion.

Sep 09, 2009 10:04 AM
Anonymous
Bad Advice

Janet, I cannot honestly think of a client specific situation where I would take a first-timer client that was RIGHT NOW (T0DAY) able to get a good rate on purchasing a good property and I would tell them:  even though you are ready to buy right now-- and would be getting a good rate on a good property RIGHT NOW-- I still think that in your specific situation you should just continue to sit on the fence and not buy-- because you "could" get $20,000 off the purchase price this winter.

How could you say that to someone?  What kind of specific situation would that take?  How often do you think that would actually come up for you?

Clients should NOT be trading a good, solid situation TODAY for some crystal ball guess tomorrow.  That is solid advice, and solid opinion.

Look, I think you are a nice enough lady, but even with all of the backpedalling you are doing in regards to "this is only an opinion" and "this opinion is not even specific" --- still leaves a fairly wreckless ORIGINAL BLOG POST that did not allude to any of that.

As for being willing to sign your name to this opinion: well, that is your problem.  Thanks to google and its amazing "save absolutely everything" machine, consumers will be reading this opinion of yours 10, 20 years from now-- and you will still be trying to find ways to defend it.  I have thought about it, and I do not want that hassle in the future.

I am serious when I say that you do seem like a nice enough lady-- and I wish you nothing but good luck and fortune in the future.  

 

Sep 09, 2009 10:36 AM
#149
Janet Guilbault
Platinum Home Mortgage Company - Walnut Creek, CA
San Francisco Bay Area Direct Mortgage Lender

B.A.: There are plenty of buyers in my market that are making crazy offers far over asking price in a frenzy of competition just to get the tax credit.

 Lots of them are not going to succeed in time to close their loan. Lots of them are going to buy properties that are ill suited to them just to get the tax credit. Lots of them will buy under pressure and have a lousy stressful experience. Some will buy before they are really ready to be a homeowner just to get the credit.

Would I tell a client they had an alternative to wait and not play into the frenzy? Yes I would.

When you are a writer willing to take a bold stance, sometimes you are wrong. I accept that and will continue to make calls that carry risk, and question the real estate mainstream.

 If you were not afraid of being wrong, you would sign your name. But since you won't...................

 

 

 

 

Sep 09, 2009 11:07 AM
Anonymous
Bad Advice

Re: Comment #153

Janet, believe it or not, but I definitely DO have respect for you based on just a couple of blogs that I have read-- so I will NOT doubt your statement that "There are plenty of buyers in my market that are making crazy offers far over asking price in a frenzy of competition just to get the tax credit."

I will believe you.  But are all of the buyers in your market unrepresented, then?  Or are the Realtors just not very good at explaining the small significance of $8,000 versus the sorry state they will be in after making an unsound real estate purchase?

As for: "Lots of them are not going to succeed in time to close their loan. Lots of them are going to buy properties that are ill suited to them just to get the tax credit. Lots of them will buy under pressure and have a lousy stressful experience. Some will buy before they are really ready to be a homeowner just to get the credit.  Would I tell a client they had an alternative to wait and not play into the frenzy? Yes I would."

That's great.  So would I.  But I would counsel them based on their not being ready at the current time-- regardless of whether or not there was tax credit.  And I would once again talk to them about the insignificance of $8,000 to compensate for a poor decision at the wrong time.

I would NOT be making the argument to those particular clients: "just wait for the tax credit to run out.  You might get $20,000 off your house!"    What does that crystal balling have to do with anything?

And no, I am not afraid that I am wrong on this.  I am right.    :-)

I will give you this Janet, you have spunk and your blog certainly isn't boring.  That's for sure...

[Hey, maybe you are on to something...]

Sep 09, 2009 11:32 AM
#152
Janet Guilbault
Platinum Home Mortgage Company - Walnut Creek, CA
San Francisco Bay Area Direct Mortgage Lender

B.A. You have lots of spunk too. Thanks for taking me to task on this one. Come back and visit again.

Sep 09, 2009 11:39 AM
Bob & Leilani Souza
Souza Realty 916.408.5500 - Roseville, CA
Greater Sacramento Area Homes, Land & Investments

Janet, you will be the first one I notify when I write my first blog post! :)

P.S. I have frequented online forums for many years now in a variety of different fields (real estate, construction, home improvement, animals, cars, motorcycles, food, wine, etc.) and one thing I've learned from the beginning is that people generally don't take anonymous posters seriously, especially in this case if they are a real estate professional (like "Bad Advice") posting on a forum where all of the other real estate professionals post using their online profiles. Kudos to you, Janet...you have demonstrated class in your responses to an anonymous poster.

P.P.S. "Bad Advice", no matter what your opinion is and whether I agree with it or not, I would have respected your opinion if you had just used your real name like the rest of us. :)

Leilani (Souza Realty)

Sep 09, 2009 12:50 PM
Janet Guilbault
Platinum Home Mortgage Company - Walnut Creek, CA
San Francisco Bay Area Direct Mortgage Lender

Leilani: Thank you for this comment, you have made my day, actually.

I never delete comments because I want an open forum, even if people disagree. There is always something to learn.

I am in full agreement with your PPS. If someone is not willing to unmask themselves then you need to wonder why.

Have you ever been to a costume party where everyone is behind a mask? It is amazing to me how differently people act when no one knows who they are. Same applies to blogging.

Sep 09, 2009 01:26 PM
Renée Donohue~Home Photography
Savvy Home Pix - Allegan, MI
Western Michigan Real Estate Photographer

Janet, you and Jeff spurred a post that will be going to my first time buyer's database.  As always, thanks for making *me* think.  Incredible post as always!

Sep 09, 2009 02:09 PM
Joan Whitebook
BHG The Masiello Group - Nashua, NH
Consumer Focused Real Estate Services

Very intreresting..  I am waiting and watching to see what happens next... it is a bit unpredicatable.

Sep 09, 2009 02:50 PM
Bob & Leilani Souza
Souza Realty 916.408.5500 - Roseville, CA
Greater Sacramento Area Homes, Land & Investments

Awww...thanks, Janet! Glad my two cents ended up being worth a lot more than that to you. :)

I've never been to a costume party like you described, but I totally understand your point. It is the same as blogging.

Leilani (Souza Realty)

Sep 09, 2009 03:37 PM
Jenny Durling
L.A. Property Solutions - Los Angeles, CA
For Los Angeles real estate help 213-215-4758

I think some of the frenzy is due to the buyers' credit but it's also due to some of the lowest prices we've seen in Silver Lake and Echo Park for quite a while. It's also due to the great interest rates that are currently available. Do I think buyers will get good deals during the holidays? Absolutely, assuming interest rates are still great. Time will tell.

Sep 09, 2009 04:45 PM
Janet Guilbault
Platinum Home Mortgage Company - Walnut Creek, CA
San Francisco Bay Area Direct Mortgage Lender

Renee: Actually I am surprised as heck. But then I always am because we have such a passionate group of thinkers and writers here in at AR. Happy to be a part of the best real estate think tank on the Internet.

Jenny: I would agree that the markets where frenzy exists is from a multiple set of reasons. Best way to know the impact of the tax credit is to let it die.

Leilani: I just love saying your name. It is beautiful and so are you.

Sep 10, 2009 02:16 AM
Judy Chapman
Referral Network of Illinois LLC - Chicago, IL

I only know it will probably be good news for my listings. Yesterday, 4 agents showed one of my listings! Before, we were lucky if we got 1 a week.

Sep 10, 2009 09:05 AM
Bob & Leilani Souza
Souza Realty 916.408.5500 - Roseville, CA
Greater Sacramento Area Homes, Land & Investments

Thanks, Janet! :)

Leilani (Souza Realty)

P.S. Leilani means "Heavenly Flower" in Hawaiian.

Sep 10, 2009 05:16 PM
Elva Branson-Lee
Solid Source Realty GA - Atlanta, GA
CDPE - Atlanta Real Estate & Short Sale Agent

In our markets here in South & East Metro Atlanta there are enough bargain priced homes on the market that no buyer should have to make a crazy over-market offer. I'm just not seeing that, nor am I hearing of it.

Sep 11, 2009 10:35 AM
Anonymous
CPA

Comparing cash for clunkers to this first time homebuyer credit is not an accurate or reasonable anology. To earn an additional $20,000 AFTER TAX (since principal payments on your home loan are not tax deductible) is a lot different that $8,000 of tax-free credit right now. I am sure you understand that time value of money factors into that as well. Not to mention, any person who is finance savy would tell you that interest rates are only getting higher. You have to look at the whole picture. Your article posting is missing some key information that changes everything.

Sep 16, 2009 10:15 AM
#164
Anonymous
Concerned 4 U

Hi Janet,

I really enjoyed your blog!!  As to Jeff Belonger, he belongs in an English class as he should know that when someone speaks, it is their opinion. Advice, blog, comments, etc. is an OPINION. You do not have to state that it is an opinion, it is understood. Duh!  Seems like Jeff is just trying not to BELONGer as I am sure he is aware of what an opinion is.  And as you so clearly pointed out, when one comes to the net, they come to find a different voice, something that they did not find in a book or on the News. And everyone already knows the normal course of things, which is why everyone is saying that you should not be telling them not to be normal.

My main reason for writing is about Bad Advice. As you stated, he was hostile and confrontational. I got the feeling that he was OVERLY HOSTILE. Janet, I am concerned for you! As you stated, he would not leave his name but of course he has your full real name, picture and where you work and everything!  I would like you to be extra careful to your surroundings as you never know who is lurking on the internet.  I was so concerned for your safety, that I had to write you.  Maybe you could create a Avatar and Internet name where you can express YOUR opinion and still be SAFE!! Please take that into consideration!

I also appreciate that no matter how hostile or rude anyone is, you stand your ground, in such a respectful, genuine, and classy way! Take care and please consider my advice about Bad Advice! I do not mean to scare you but something about the way he wrote really scared and effected me. Be Well.

Oct 24, 2009 05:07 PM
#165