Recently an article in Inman News cited opinions from different sources that seem to indicate what I have thought all along. The real estate "recovery" will be here when we see it. Some experts feel it will be by the end of the year, "By Christmas we will probably see most of this nightmare over with what's happening in the new home building business," said Jim Glassman, senior economist for JP Morgan Chase." And yet others predict the beginning of the turn around "...economists participating in the NAHB Spring Construction Forecast Conference in Washington, D.C. on April 26 said they expect the industry to start turning around, as early as the second half of this year."
However others feel it will last longer and predict it will extend into 2008. "Although he believes that housing's decline will extend into 2008, Nariman Behravesh, chief economist for Global Insight, said that "there has not been much of a spillover effect on the rest of the economy, and we expect that benign effect to continue."" My personal experience has been that while people are buying homes, sellers continue to want an inflated value for their homes and buyers seem to feel that sellers are desperate and will take rock bottom offers. It is a tough time in the industry for some sales associates. Those that have accepted doing a "good job" as enough and not followed up and continued to build relationships with their past clientele may be having a more challenging time. Ken Blanchard and Sheldon Bowles book "Raving Fans" is an excellent resource for those real estate agents who want to get on top and stay there.
Educating our customers who are buying or selling by trying to inject some reality into their dreams is an arduous task at best. One successful real estate agent I know counsels his sellers that any offer within 5% of the asking price is an acceptable offer as long as the other contingencies are in line with the sellers goals. While I believe the market has begun to swing back to a more neutral market, the media does hurt the efforts of the real estate agent by sensationalizing the market's challenges. Buyers read and believe what is said to be gospel because it does suit their goals. Sellers read it and don't believe it is that bad. It is very hard to generalize how things are going. For instance in my market place, homes over $600,000 are moving the slowest. But there are more buyers for less expensive homes and some of these homes are selling, but there are many offers written that are rejected due to being priced to low.
In conclusion, we will continue to watch the market and share our findings for this market area because what the experts are saying is too general.
At this point they are all just guessing. The way the markets are going, and I say markets becouse some areas are doing well, and then you travel just 10 minutes away and the market just stinks.
The national news does not help becouse they always want to sensationalize the so called news so that people will be interested in it.