A recent research report from the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business  and  Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management reports that of the large number of mortgage defaults across the country, 26% were what they call strategic. This report defines strategic as one in which the mortgage default was a calculated, done by homeowners who have the money to make the payments.  The owners decided that the homes negative equity position indicates to them it would be economically wiser to let the property go back to the lender.

According to another nationwide study, 22% of all homeowners had negative equity positions during the first quarter of 2009. This means the homeowners owed more on their mortgage, than the current resale value of their homes.  In some parts of Southern California, Nevada and Florida, it’s speculated that more than half of all homeowners now have negative equity.

Currently, we are just beginning of prime adjustable-rate loan activity called mortgage resets.  The number of these mortgage resets far exceeds the number of subprime loans. The findings from Northwestern University's study seem to indicate that the U.S. housing market is on the brink of another substantial rise in home foreclosures.

Keep in mind, that these are prime loans made to the middle and upper end of the housing market.  The people can afford to make the reset payments on their mortgages. A main reason that these people can afford the new reset payments is because of today's low interest rates hovering at around just 5%.  In a post, dated 1-20-09, ‘San Diego Negative Home Equity’ on my San Diego real estate market blog, I speculated about this exact situation.  The post was well in advance of this study's findings and all the more prophetic today.

I believe the importance of the mortgage reset will wake up homeowners to the harsh reality, and extent, of their negative equity position. Will they want to keep making mortgage payments?  Would you, if the current value of your home was $50,000 less than the balance of your mortgage? What if your home value was $100,00, $200,000 or even $300,000 less than the balance on your mortgage? Would you continue to make payments or let the bank take it over?

I recently sold only in La Jolla. That was purchased new in 2005 for approximately $1.6 million. My buyer, was able to buy this home for just $1.1 million. So, in just about three years, from the time this home was purchased, the original seller’s home value had declined by $500,000, or just over 31%. Now just imagine if this home was originally purchased with a 10% down payment. The original owner would have had $160,000 invested in the property at the start. Plus would have made three years of substantial monthly mortgage payments, plus upgrades and then found out that his original $160,000 equity position had deteriorated into a -500,000 position. Now, should the original purchaser, with the loan balance of $1,440,000 continue to make mortgage payments or let the bank take the property back?

In the Northwestern University study, among those without moral reservations, 63% of those homeowners with a negative equity of $300,000 or more would let the property go into foreclosure. For the other group in the study who had moral issues with letting their home go into foreclosure, if they could make the payments, 38% would let their properties foreclose if their negative equity position reached $300,000.

Another finding in the study showed that the higher number of foreclosures in the zip code, the higher the homeowners’ willingness to walk away from their properties. Plus, 82% of homeowners in the study were likely to have a strategic default when they were aware of others who had defaulted.

The bottom line from this study seems to show that the traditional assumptions that homeowners default on their mortgages because they can't afford their monthly payments, needs to be re-examined. Even with the new Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac 125% refinance mortgages, will these deep in negative equity homeowners really be enticed to refinance their homes, when financially, it looks like a foolish decision?

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