The economy on a consumer basis is about the sale of goods and services. One of the best borometers that I have are the activites of the UPS and Fed Ex trucks.

Being in a downtown environment where I live and work, I know the names of the drivers and talk to them frequently.

Recently, I did not see one of the UPS guys around the neighborhood for about a week. I figured it was vacation time. Wrong!

I saw him today and he told me that they cut a lot of routes into Center City Philadelphia because of the slowing economy. So on the day that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke declared that the recession is "technically over," along comes the sobering news from the people that deliver all the stuff you bought cheaper on the net. The bigger problem is that I think this may really cause inflation.

For the last few years, people have fought inflation by finding it cheaper on a website like Amazon or eBay but if people slow down their spending, either the super discounted products will end and/or local stores will go out of business causing prices to rise from the survivors. It's all about job creation.

If we don't find the magic job spark (like the internet was to the 90's) we are going to have way too many people upset in our late 00's jobless recovery (a boon for Wall Street, though). What's the answer, I don't have it yet.

Maybe after the next cup of coffee!