Economists prognosticate.
That's just what they do. There's plenty of talking heads on television that babble on and on about the national real estate market. I've got news for you. There's no such thing as the national real estate market. Sure, there's national statistics about the housing market, but there ain't no national market! (excuse my grammar)
So, we're stuck with the local market. If you live in Northern Virginia or the D.C. metropolitan region, that's a good thing, since we've got the best market in the country. Sure, we've suffered some along with the rest of the country throughout this past recession (yes, I said past) NB: You may not feel like it yet, but according to Ben Bernanke and others, the recession is over -- it may have even ended in June.
Anyways, back to economists and the local market. If you want to know "what's been going on," "what's going on," and "what's about to happen" in the regional economy of Northern Virginia and Washington D.C., the place to go is the Northern Virginia Association of REALTORS' Annual Economic Summit. I've attended this event every year since I entered the real estate profession.This year was no different. On Wednesday, I headed out Braddock Road to George Mason University anticipating the prognostications of the economists.
Wednesday's speakers were:
- Dr. Michael Fratantoni
Vice President, Single-Family Research & Policy Development, Mortgage Bankers Association - Mr. Allen Jones
Executive of Default Management Public Policy & Outreach, Servicing Division, Bank of America - Dr. Frank Nothaft
Chief Economist, FreddieMac - Dr. Lawrence Yun
Chief Economist & Senior Vice President of Research, National Association of Realtors® - Dr. Stephen Fuller
Director, Center for Regional Analysis, School of Public Policy, George Mason University
If you happen to follow my Twitter stream or my Facebook account, you might have read some of my live updates from the event.
For the rest of you, here's a recap of some of the highlights from the Economic Summit describing the current economic outlook:
- Anticipate 10.2% unemployment peak early 2010
- No meaningful price rises in housing until 2011/2012 (note they did not exactly define meaningful)
- Government lending accounts for 45% of loans. Primarily b/c of higher FHA loan limits.
- Virginia doing better than Maryland or DC in terms of foreclosures.
- Option ARMs will not have a tidal wave problem on the market like subprime did because there are lots of modifications happening.
- Bank of America short sale department gets 80,000 phone calls per day! HOLY COW!
- Virginia one of sixteen states where unemployment has gone down. Fairfax County rate is 4.7%
- All 26 Fairfax County high schools in top 3% of Newsweek's report! If that's not a selling point for Fairfax County real estate, I don't know what is!
- Short sale frustration gets people to go straight for foreclosure sales leading to multiple contracts on REOs
- All cash purchases make up 20% of the real estate market nationwide
- One average home sale leads to additional $62k economic impact (furniture, carpeting, moving truck, etc.) -- very interesting!
- DC market lost 42K jobs in last year but that's the least of any major metro area in country.
- Northern Virginia has more entrepreneurial "juice" than suburban Maryland or DC - Dr. Stephen Fuller
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