Social Security wasn't supposed to start paying out more than it took in until 2016 according to the 2009 OASDI Trustees Report.  Surprise, Surprise.  Due to the unexpected rise in unemployment and early retirements, that dreaded day is here right now.

Big job losses and a spike in early retirement claims from laid-off seniors will force Social Security to pay out more in benefits than it collects in taxes the next two years, the first time that's happened since the 1980s.

The deficits - $10 billion in 2010 and $9 billion in 2011 - won't affect payments to retirees because Social Security has accumulated surpluses from previous years totaling $2.5 trillion. But they will add to the overall federal deficit.

Applications for retirement benefits are 23 percent higher than last year, while disability claims have risen by about 20 percent. Social Security officials had expected applications to increase from the growing number of baby boomers reaching retirement, but they didn't expect the increase to be so large.

Just what we needed, something else to increase the budget deficit.  Do you think that their assumptions on unemployment and GDP going forward are too optimistic or too conservative?  I think that they are probably expecting  a much stronger recovery than we will actually see.