OK...so who will win the "big game". I thought to prepare for the game and to get a feel from what the experts are saying, I would check out the various sports writers and what they are saying about the game. All of this is from the web....but is good for us Cal fans, as well as Trojans.
It was supposed to be a matchup of top-10 teams. It was supposed to determine Pac-10 supremacy. It was supposed to signal an end of a 50-year drought - or the continuation of domination.
So much was expected be at stake in Saturday's California-USC game that even the skinflints on Tightwad Hill would be inspired to buy a ticket.
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| Jahvid Best only rushed for 30 yards in last year's meeting. |
So much for that.
Instead, the much-anticipated clash with championship implications has become a desperate duel of survival.
That's what a couple of trips to the Pacific Northwest wrought. Two weeks ago, USC was upset 16-13 by Washington in Seattle. Last week, California was annihilated 42-3 by Oregon in Eugene.
As a result, USC's streak of seven consecutive Pac-10 championships is in jeopardy. And California's aspirations of making its first Rose Bowl appearance since the 1958 season are fading.
"We still believe in each other and we still believe in our goals," Cal senior tackle Mike Tepper said. "We have long-term goals. We can still achieve everything we want to achieve and still have a great season."
Of course, so can USC.
The Trojans are counting on a typically suffocating defense to contain explosive Cal running back Jahvid Best. USC also hopes its defense can compensate for the team's shortcomings on offense. Those shortcomings may be multiplied because of the loss of running back Stafon Johnson, who had to undergo seven hours of emergency surgery earlier this week when his larynx and windpipe were crushed in a freak weight-room accident.
USC ranks sixth in the country in total defense. The Trojans are especially stingy against the run, having allowed just 1.7 yards per carry. Last season, the Trojans held Best to 30 yards on 13 carries in a 17-3 victory.
"That's how we've played over the years," Trojans coach Pete Carroll said. "We have really fast guys that are playing smart and not giving up any easy things with mistakes and stuff like that. We have an experienced secondary and have the athleticism that makes for a good defense. We feel pretty good about it, and we're just getting going."
The Trojans can't feel as good about their offense. Although freshman quarterback Matt Barkley drew raves for directing a game-winning drive against Ohio State, he has been troubled by an injured shoulder. More troublesome for the Trojans is that they're converting just 25 percent of their third downs (11-of-44).
"We've always been a good third-down team, but we're not there right now," Carroll said. "Generally speaking, when you're playing a young quarterback, the red zone and third downs jump out at you. We have to clean things up and execute in those situations."
That may be more difficult without Johnson, the latest casualty in a rash of injuries for the Trojans. Johnson is USC's second-leading rusher and led the team with five touchdowns.
His injury, which was life-threatening, left his teammates stunned.
"He's one of the spiritual leaders of the group, and it hit everybody hard," Carroll said. "There's kind of a disbelief that something could happen like that in a controlled situation."
A feeling of disbelief also was permeating the atmosphere in Berkeley, but for dramatically different reasons. Cal posted three impressive victories to open the season and appeared every bit as good as the preseason hype suggested. Then came the blowout at Oregon, the Bears' worst loss in eight seasons under coach Jeff Tedford.
Tedford, making like a used-car salesman, claimed the lemon wasn't as bad as it looked.
"We were one step away from making a lot of plays, but we didn't get it done," Tedford said. "There were a lot of opportunities there. The first play of the game, we had a guy wide open running downfield but didn't get out of our stance and get a sack.
"It was a perfect example of 10 guys playing and one guy not getting it done. It's so important for all 11 players to do their jobs. We just took turns that day."
Cal had ranked 10th in the nation in run offense, but managed just 77 yards. Quarterback Kevin Riley was 12-of-31, the offensive line allowed five sacks and the defense gave up 524 yards.
"That's one game," Tedford said. "It's a game that's pretty significant and a game we didn't play well at all. Our team understands that is not who we are and we're capable of playing better."
Who gets the edge?
USC rush offense vs. California rush defense:
Elusive USC running back Joe McKnight has rushed for 354 yards and is averaging 7.5 yards per carry. But Stafon Johnson's absence is cause for concern. He provided a power element to the running game. USC is 16th in the country in rush offense, but more than a third of its rushing production (342 yards) was posted against San Jose State in the season-opener. Cal was gutted for 236 rushing yards by Oregon. Before that, the Bears had allowed just 187 yards in the first three games combined. Sophomore LB Mychal Kendricks leads in tackles with 40.
Edge: USC
USC pass offense vs. California pass defense:
Freshman QB Matt Barkley has had two solid games, but was inconsistent against Ohio State. He's thrown only one interception. WR Damian Williams is among the best in the nation. A big-play threat, he's averaging 16.1 yards on 16 catches. TE Anthony McCoy is averaging almost 23 yards on seven receptions. No other USC receiver has more than six catches. USC has allowed five sacks. Cal's secondary was considered among the nation's best entering the season, but the Bears allowed three touchdown passes last week and have allowed seven on the season. Cal is third in the nation with 17 sacks. DE Tyson Alualu leads with 3.5.
Edge: California
California rush offense vs. USC rush defense:
Cal's Jahvid Best is the most explosive running back in the nation, but he was held to 55 yards and no touchdowns in last week's loss to Oregon. He's the key to Cal's success; it's hard to see the Bears winning if the running game is stymied. In the Bears' three victories, Best rushed for 412 yards and eight touchdowns. Best was held to 30 yards in last year's 17-3 loss to USC. Shane Vereen has 148 yards as Best's backup. USC is allowing opponents an average of just 1.7 yards per rushing attempt. No opposing back has gotten close to 100 yards. LB Chris Galippo leads USC with 27 tackles.
Edge: USC
California pass offense vs. USC pass defense:
Questions persist about Cal QB Kevin Riley, who completed just 38.7 percent of his passes against Oregon. Riley has thrown five touchdown passes and no interceptions. WR Marvin Jones has star potential, but getting him the ball isn't easy. Cal has allowed 10 sacks. That doesn't bode well for facing the USC pass rush, which has posted 18 sacks - more than any team in the nation. But DE Nick Perry, who leads the Trojans with six, has a bruised knee and his status is uncertain. All-America FS Taylor Mays leads a secondary that has not allowed a touchdown pass.
Edge: USC
USC special teams vs. California special teams
Both teams have good return units but also shaky kicking situations. USC has done a nice job covering punts but a poor job covering kickoffs; Cal is the opposite. USC running back C.J. Gable averages 25 yards on kickoff returns and Williams averages 12 yards on punts. K Jordan Congdon has converted three of his five field-goal attempts. P Billy O'Malley averages 37.3 yards. Cal CB Syd'Quan Thompson has been a big-play threat on punt returns in the past, but hasn't broken free this season. Vereen averages more than 28 yards on kickoff returns, but don't be surprised if Best shows up on returns this week. K Vince D'Amato has hit only three of his six field-goal attempts, but he has made a 47-yarder. P Bryan Anger is among the best in the country. He averages 40 yards and has killed seven inside the 20.
Edge: California
Coaching staffs
USC's Pete Carroll is 7-1 against California. USC is 91-16 in nine seasons under Carroll and has won or shared the Pac-10 championship seven years in a row. He has new coordinators this season, and play-caller Jeremy Bates - who is not the offensive coordinator - has come under some criticism. Under Tedford, California has been transformed from a perennial also-ran to a Pac-10 contender. The Bears are 62-31in eight seasons under Tedford. Bob Gregory is a solid defensive coordinator, and the new offensive coordinator is Andy Ludwig, who was at Utah last season.
Edge: USC
X-factor:
How will the injury to Stafon Johnson affect the Trojans? He played a key role in the running game, but that's a secondary issue. Johnson is extremely popular among his teammates and his near-fatal weightlifting accident could inspire or distract them. G Jeff Byers said it would have a positive effect. "It anything, it's something we can use," he said. "Guys have every reason now to come out and refocus on why you love the game because you never when it can be taken from you." Perhaps, but such a traumatic incident also could prevent the Trojans from fully focusing on a football game, even an important one.
USC will win if:
The Trojans must contain Best, as they did a year ago. Protecting Barkley from the Cal pass rush also is a top priority. Watch their third-down conversions; the Trojans were 0-for-11 on third down in their loss to Washington.
California will win if:
Was last week's debacle as much an aberration as the Bears claim it is? Giving Best room to run is essential. Cal has to have a strong running game to keep Riley out of obvious passing situations. Meanwhile, the Bears must prevent big plays. An edge in turnovers also is a key. During Tedford's tenure, Cal is 37-4 when committing fewer turnovers than its opponent.
Wow! That is some kind of comprehensive break-down of the game.... are you an espn junkie??? What about Texas Tech this weekend... can you give me an update on that one> ? :)