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San Diego Real Estate - Experts Disagree on San Diego Housing Recovery

San Diego Real Estate - Experts Disagree on San Diego Hosing Recovery

Standard and Poor's Case-Schiller Home Price Index for San Diego jumped 2.5% from June to July of this year. That numbers significance is that it is the biggest one month increase over the last for years. And it is on top of the other price increases for the previous two months. That defines what most most experts agree is clear evidence of a trend.. Three months is is the minimum for a “ trend” to be evident and at least they agree on that premise.But many are saying that we have hit bottom and that a recovery is underway.

The disagreement by other experts lies in the fact that a sizeable part of any recovery picture is a bit too cloudy to declare that we are at the bottom.

The evidentiary ( love that word) factors currently in our markets that need to be factored into to the equation are:

1. The end of the temporary Federal Tax Credit for 1st Time Home Buyers.

2. State and local unemployment figures are worsening.

3. A boat load of new foreclosures are expected to hit the market before years end.

4. General economic weakness. The banks are NOT fully immersed in creating mortgages.

It is my contention that we will experience even more upcoming surges in good sales months ahead but there is no correleation that an increase in the number of sales ( short sleas and froeclosures still making up a significant percentage of the ttal sales) indicate that housing prices have stabilized and will be heading up.

I am course hopeful but we also must be realistic . There is too much that is unclear in the outside factors affecting home values to declrae that we are finally at the bottom.

If you are Buying, Selling or Relocating to San Diego and need help from a professional REALTOR®, give me a call or visit my San Diego Real Estate website and sign up for Listing alerts for your favorite San Diego Home and Condominium Property Searches.

For over 20 years in local real estate as a Certified Residential Specialist ( CRS ) , I have specialized in Single Family Homes and Condominiums throughout the coast and inland areas of San Diego. Some of the communities are La Jolla, University Town Center, Bay Park, Mission Valley, Pacific Beach, Scripts Ranch, Poway, Carmel Mountain Ranch, Rancho Bernardo, Rancho Penasquitos,Carmel Valley and Solona Beach. If I didn't mention a city or community that you are interested in, just let me know and i will find you an expert for that community as well.

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Posted by San Diego Real Estate Voice authored by William Johnson on 10/05/2009 09:55 PM

Comments (19)

San Diego Real Estate - Experts Disagree on San Diego Housing Recovery in the Regional (Localism) Channel

san diego real estate, san diego housing market recovery, first time home buyer federal tax credit

Originally posted at: San Diego Real Estate Voice : San Diego Real Estate - Experts Disagree on San Diego Housing Recovery

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19 Comments on San Diego Real Estate - Experts Disagree on San Diego Housing Recovery

OCT

William,

What a time! Never a dull moment. The market is so strange and difficult to project, it is mind boggling. The economy is not improving and the sales are, but what it means, and how long it stays, no clue.

William -- I couldn't agree with you more. The factors that you have delineated (one of my favorite words) are very relevant and will have an impact on the recovery, if any! Excellent analysis... by the way.. I wish I had a really good camera tonight -- there is a beautiful golden moon tonight and I would have loved to have captured it on "film".

OCT

Hi Jon, It is indeed uncertain times. But being hopeful, things do look interesting for Fall and still seeing all this good activity.

Hi Joan,

Well my moment was this morning. An incredibility large and beautiful owl was being chased by a big squad of black birds. He flew in close and I got a great look at him. I got the camera out and then nothing. I left the power on yesterday and the batteries were dead. I got out the back set and just as I went to focus in, he flew off. I would have had a very good shot of him. Wasn't meant to be, guess. Those moments , huh?

The market indicators seem clear but all these other factors will come into play and then we will see what's what. Stock market is not the best guide but it does seems to be refelecting confidence again?

William,

It seems so much of whats happened in the last 3 years is self fulfilling prophecy by people with with a strong opinion and weak logic!

Bill

AHHHH what would be a Real Estate market without economists disagreeing about it:) I hope the market continues to improve!

It is so hard to tell if the housing price spike is a bottom or the result of tax credit incentives. One unknown about the recovery is how much impact the tax credits will have on spending come tax refund season.

Richard

Hi William, Great insight. And I think you are right about that. Thanks as always for sharing here and enhancing this post.

Hi Bill, I see your point and well said. Come to think about t, it is actually us that choose how we think things will be and then we take whatever action (or inaction as the case may be ) and it becomes our reality. Sort of the old adage that "if you think you can't" , you probably can't . And then we see some that totally believe otherwise and act accordingly and just accomplish remarkable things.

Hi Richard, If the extension of the tax credit comes to apply to only those in the military with a min of 90 days overseas duty, then we will actually see what part of this market was influenced by the tax credit. If we get a different type of extension, meaning like what we had or even greatly enhanced for all others, we will know how that affects the market. Then every time things get soft, someone will push for a government intervention. That involvement would not come free but with greater influence over the industry . People who want all this don't have a clue to the longer affects of what the involvment actually costs and who actually is paying for it. I am simply for less government and and agree that more should take responsibility for their own lives. After all that is said and done, we see what banks have done with the money. Certainly not cycle it through lending. Perhaps banks are setting up new business models?

William - A prime example of that old "hindsight is 20/20".

Hi Karen, You are spot on. Thanks for dropping over. I know for me, that my hindsight is actually nearsighted, LOL.

William - Because of the four reasons you list, I suspect we still have some rough going to experience in the months coming. Yet, there are some positive signs (at least here in Sacramento) that provide some optimism. Many of our homes receive multiple offers. There does seem to be pockets of cash out there. Those that have it, know there is blood in the streets and are seeing this as an opportunity to buy now while prices are affordable.

I should also mention the other day another agent said to me, "I wish I could see some statistics which would allow us to project with more certainty." I had a response to that, . . "When someone tells me they want things set in stone, I ask if that is talc or granite." Not all stone is created equal.

Can I plug my latest post about Shadow Inventory? I think San Diego (and Socal in general) is going to get hit with this...

OCT

Hi Myrl, Positive signs Yes. The new reports indicate that there are seven million homeowners at least 90 days late ( in default). am also hearing that lenders are reviewing shaort sale requests for possible remediation before taking other actions, in effect slowing down again the rocess for either approval of the short sale or filing notice to begin foreclosure.

Hi Myrl, That is a good answer. We have neve had less certainty than today but for sure, certainty was never a guarantee even in the past more normal markets

Hi Jeff, I comments on your post and for sure it makes a lot of sense. And yes, I fully expect this to apply to the San Diego region.

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