In recent months, we've noticed favorable market factors
at the lower end of the price/size range
for homes for sale in

Eugene, Springfield and Lane County, OR.

We've read about declining inventories and stabilizing home prices in many parts of the country -- as evidenced by information posted on
the Active Rain real estate network.


The first reliable and positive national numbers appeared
two months ago when

   the Case-Shiller Index
(as reported by Standard and Poors and the Wall Street Journal)

for May showed that Index's first month-on-month increases in nearly three years.  The Case-Shiller report for June continued and amplified that trend.

Now, the Index for the month of

July, 2009

(reported on September 29) is again positive.



What is the Case-Shiller Index?

This monthly report is derived from year-on-year sale
 of the same homes.
It's not an arithmetic mean (average).
 It's not a statistical median (half above/half below).
It doesn't compare apples to oranges.

It compares prices paid for individual homes turning over
during the reporting period.

It is the most accurate market statistic for prices of homes for sale in the United States.
For every metro area scored by Case-Shiller:
a score of 100 represents the level of home prices
in the year 2000.



Unfortunately, the Case-Shiller Index is compiled for only 20 American metropolitan areas as shown on the chart below. 

The metro areas have been ranked in descending order

by the percentage change in price

during the twelve months ending in July, 2009.


Case-Shiller Index  -  July, 2009

Case-Shiller Index
City		 Index Value
July, 2009
 Change From
June, 2009
 Change for year ending in
July, 2009
Cleveland
 107.93
 + 1.5%
 -  1.3%
Dallas
 121.17
 + 1.2%
 -  1.6%
Denver
 128.79
 + 1.5%
 -  2.9%
Boston
 154.53
 + 1.2%
 -  4.9%
Charlotte
 121.23
 +  .6%
 - 9.0%
Washington
 176.32 + 1.8%
 - 9.8%
New York
 173.66
 +  .8% - 10.3%
Atlanta
 110.06
 + 2.3%
 - 11.8%
San Diego 150.99
 + 2.5%
 -12.3%
Portland, OR
 150.06
 + 1.1%
 - 13.9%
Chicago
 128.32
 + 2.7%
 -14.2%
Los Angeles
 163.86
 + 1.8%
 - 14.9%
Seattle
 149.44
 - 0.1%
 - 15.3%
Minneapolis 118.68
 + 4.6%
 - 17.3%
San Francisco
 128.86 + 3.3%
 - 17.9%
Tampa
 142.84
 + 1.4%
 - 18.4%
Miami
 147.27
 + 1.3%
 - 21.2%
Detroit
 70.25
 + 1.1%
 - 24.6%
Phoenix
 106.66
 + 1.8%
 - 28.5%
Las Vegas
 106.08
 - 1.1%
 - 31.4%



Only two cities among the Case-Shiller twenty failed to see an increase in prices during July:

Seattle (down 0.1%) and Las Vegas (down 1.1%).

None of the listed cities shows a positive number for the twelve-month period, though some are getting close.

The uptick in May, June and July means that
 the market is taking back
a fraction of the loss in value experienced by U.S. homes for sale
during the last year.


The Case-Shiller city located closest to
the Eugene, Springfield and Lane County market is:

Portland, OR.

Portland's Index score reached it's highest point in July, 2007.
 That month the Portland score was 186.51 -- meaning
 prices in that metro area were
86.51 % higher
 than in January, 2000.
In July, 2009, Portland stood at 150.06 -- a decline in home values
of 19.5% from that July, 2007 high.



For comparison sake, the Case-Shiller Index numbers
for June and May are repeated below:


Case-Shiller Index  -  June, 2009

Cities going from no change in May to an increase in June included:

New York and Tampa.

Cities changing from a decline in home prices during May to an increase in June were:

Seattle, Los Angeles, and Miami.

 

In June, Portland stood at 148.47 -- a decline in home values
of 20.3% from the July, 2007 high.

Case-Shiller Index
City		 Index Value
June, 2009
 Change From
May, 2009
 Change for year ending in
June, 2009
Dallas
 119.68
 + 2.7%
 -  2.2%
Cleveland
 106.38
 + 4.2%
 -  3.0%
Denver
 126.92
 + 2.5%
 -  3.6%
Boston
 152.71
 + 2.6%
 -  5.9%
Charlotte
 120.66
 +  .7%
 - 9.6%
Washington
 174.32
 + 2.8%
 - 11.8%
New York
 171.49
 +  .4% - 11.9%
Atlanta
 107.52
 + 1.5%
 - 13.7%
Portland, OR
 148.47
 + 1.0%
 -15.2%
San Diego
 147.31
 + 1.6%
 - 16.0%
Seattle
 149.53
 + 0.4%
 -16.1%
Chicago
 124.99
 + 1.1%
 - 16.7%
Los Angeles
 160.90
 + 1.1%
 - 17.8%
Tampa
 140.90
 +  0.4%
 - 19.5%
Minneapolis
 113.46
 + 3.1%
 - 19.8%
San Francisco
 124.70
 + 3.8%
 - 22.0%
Miami
 145.37
 + 0.5%
 - 23.4%
Detroit
 69.49
 - 0.8%
 - 25.0%
Phoenix
 104.73
 + 1.1%
 - 31.6%
Las Vegas
 107.31
 - 2.0%
 - 32.4%

 


Case-Shiller Index  -  May, 2009

Case-Shiller Index
City		 Index Value
May, 2009
 Change From
April, 2009
 Change for year ending in
May, 2009
Dallas
 116.54
 + 1.9%
 - 4.1%
Denver
 123.78
 + 1.3%
 - 4.6%
Cleveland
 102.11
 + 4.1
 - 6.2%
Boston
 148.77
 + 1.6%
 - 7.2%
Charlotte
 119.80
 +  .9%
 -10%
New York
 170.51
      0%
 -12.2%
Washington
 169.49
 + 1.3%
 -14.9%
Atlanta
 105.69
 +  .3%
 -15.0%
Portland, OR
 146.97
 +  .1%
 -16.3%
Seattle
 148.96
 - 0.3%
 -16.6%
Chicago
 123.68
 + 1.1%
 -17.5%
San Diego
 145.06
 + 0.4%
 -18.5%
Los Angeles
 159.18
 - 0.1%
 -19.8%
Tampa
 140.35
    0.0%
 -20.8%
Minneapolis
 109.77
 + 1.2%
 -21.7%
Detroit
   70.05
 + 0.2%
 -24.5%
Miami
 144.59
 -  0.8%
 -25.2%
San Francisco
 120.16
 + 1.4%
 -26.1%
Las Vegas
 109.49
 - 2.6%
 -32.0%
Phoenix
 103.56
 - 0.9%
 -34.2%

 

It would be great if we had Case-Shiller data for our own local market.
Eugene is not Portland.
Our housing values are different.
Our local economy does not precisely track Portland.
Our unemployment rate is higher.
Our employer mix is much different.


Nevertheless, Portland is an important driver for what happens to home prices here.  The upturn in Portland is truly good news. That it appears part of a national trend in prices for homes for sale is  heartening.

 ***********************

 

Jim Hale

Principal Broker / Owner

Graduate, REALTOR Institute             e-PRO

2012 Member, Million Dollar Club of Lane County

actionagents.net
1715 Linnea Avenue
Eugene, OR 97401-1962

Office:  541-484-0219
Direct:  541-543-9991
Fax:      541-485-8068

Eugene Oregon Homes / Real Estate               jim@actionagents.net

Company Logo - ACTIONAGENTS.NET - Eugene, OR - Jim Hale, Principal Broker

All statistical market data is based on information from the RMLS of Oregon for the dates indicated.
© 2013  All Rights Reserved  /  Licensed in the State of OREGON

 
This post has been included in Oregon Real Estate News
Post is included in group: Market Updates
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Post is included in group: Oregon Realtors and other Real Estate Professionals
Post is included in group: The Economics of Real Estate

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