There was a very long comment on a recent post.  I felt in needed a long response.  I'm not going to reprint the whole comment here... feel free to follow the links...

Here we go...

a) The fact that real estate is often a leveraged investment has absolutely nothing to do with the discussion... 

b) Maybe you could try actually explaining the leverage effect of the tax credit.  My guess is that you will try to make the case that buying a home creates jobs and increases the tax base.  It certainly may.  However, there are a certain amount of sales that would have taken place whether the credit was available or not...  Sara from Zillow has stats to show that 334,000 sales were "created" by the tax credit.  There will be about 1,860,000 sales that will take place.  The cost of the tax credit will be around $14,860,000,000.  This means that the tax credit actually costs about $44,500 for each "created" sale.  And many of those sales that were "created" by the credit would have happened at some point in the future.  Leverage is working the wrong way for you here...

c) Sorry, I am a FairTaxer and that WOULD eliminate the tax considerations you are talking about.  Besides, you can't depreciate structures for personal use... only business use.  And that depreciation is recaptured if the property is sold for a profit...  If you depreciate the value of improvements on a property, but sell it for more, you have to either re-invest the equity or pay taxes on it... again, for business use. 

d) Actually, while the discussion has little to do with this subject, YOU might want to go back and read about the Great Depression.  FDR's policies actually lengthened the depression according to many historical economists.  They helped some people, but spread the misery over a longer period of time.  And the deficit ISN'T small compared to the GDP, nor is it small compared to the federal budget.  Over 12% for Deficit compared to GDP, and the budget for FY2009 was supposed to be $3.1T with 2.7T in revenue.  We are going to exceed revenue by almost $2T instead of $400B...

And recession is NOT the opposite of inflation.  DEFLATION is the opposite of inflation.  Deflation and recession CAN happen at the same time... or not.  A recession is a SHRINKING of GDP.  Inflation actually hides shrinking because it appears that there is more output (more inflated dollars produced...).  So, since you don't even have the basic concepts down, arguing your point is strained... 

The "value of money" is NOT created by the government, but rather by the international response to monetary policy.  Do you really think that any government would adopt a weak currency policy on purpose for a long period of time?  Actually... yes, but that hasn't been the goal of the US.  Rather, value is lost when we have inflation greater than that of other countries.  Our currency devalues in relation...

And while it is true that you can't split the housing crisis from the rest of the economy, that is because housing is a symptom.  The disease is DEBT.  Jobs are a symptom (and fixing THAT symptom will help housing more than a tax credit...).  But, the problem is that we have created a system where the entire economy was fueled on empty debt... not investment, not saving... just empty debt.  Borrowing to build a factory or open a business is good debt, borrowing to buy dinner is stupid. 

And on Mercantilism...  Perhaps you should read up on it...  In a nutshell, it involves tariffs, protectionism and subsidies.  While YOU might think that is pure capitalism, most of the rest of the world would disagree... 

 

*** Let me also add that I didn't like the condescending tone of your comment.  It is kind of ironic that you were WRONG on almost every major point you tried to make.  And while I love debate, people that step into MY blog and try to put on their elitist gloves BETTER be ready to duke it out.  Basically, if you are going to try to "school" me, you better be sure... and maybe you should bring your sources. ***

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Post is included in group: Silent Majority
Post is included in group: Blatant Politics

12 Comments on Expanded comment...

OCT
06
414,834 Points 59 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

Hi Lane!  Long comment...long new post!  I'm in agreement with you on this.  Let's fuel the job market, not the national debt; we'll ALL be better off in the long run! 

Have a wonderful Wednesday...

Debe in Charlotte

10:10pm • #2
4 Featured Posts

Fascinating.  I think you are right on.  I with both you & Debe.

11:03pm • #3
210,638 Points 39 Featured Posts Outside Blog

There you go with those darned facts!

11:19pm • #4
OCT
07
1 Featured Post Outside Blog

Wait a minute, Lane. Let me steal a thought from elsewhere:

Do I get this right? According to Harris Interactive's survey:

18% said it would be the “primary influence” in their decision. 25% said it would be a “significant influence. 27% said it would have “some influence.

Let's see here: 18%+25%+27%=70%. Let me double check, yes, 70%!

So that means that extending tax credit would definitely influence two-thirds, or 70%, of prospective first-time homebuyers on their decision to purchase a home in 2010.

I guess there will always be people out there seeing the glass 70% empty instead of seeing it 70% full.

 

So, Lane:  Which Sara-at-Zillow one-third of all first-time buyers are we talking about here?  A 2009 one-third or a 2010 one-third who say it won't affect their decisions?

12:49am • #5
1 Featured Post Outside Blog

Lane -

I've looked at the Zillow report you cite. 

The numbers you mention are not Zillow's number for the sales that have been "created" by the credit.

The numbers are Zillow estimates for the 12 months ending in November 30, 2010, if the credit is extended:

1.86 million "first-time" buyers.

338,000 extra buyers from the credit.

Let's see:

NAR is forecasting a 5% increase in home sales in the year ending November 30, 2010.  That's a net increase of 215,000 sales - purchases by all types of buyers (on a current year base of 4.3 million).

Zillow says 334,000 from the credit or  7.5% of total sales.

This insignificant increase in sales you criticize so vehemently turns out to not be so insignificant at all -- it exceeds NAR's (always rosy) predicted increase.

That's a fact not lost on Zillow.  Here's their chief economist, Stan Humphries:

“While 334,000 may seem like a small number relative to the total number of home buyers who would claim the credit, their addition to the market next year could make the difference between a robust annual increase in home sales next year and a flat or negative change in home sales relative to this year.”

1:49am • #6
1 Featured Post Outside Blog

Lane -

I notice you say you want a flat tax.  (So it must be relevant.)

A flat tax is a political dream built upon filmsy numbers, giant assumptions and people's general dislike hatred for the IRS.  Everytime a credible run at the numbers is made, the higher the required simple(?) flat tax rate gets.

It is never going to happen.  It would be a giant tax increase at the low end and a giant tax decrease at the high end.  The politics of that are impossible.

Which is good, because lack of the mortgage interest deduction would be terrible - not just for REALTORS - but for home ownership in our country.

Adoption of a flat-tax would also harm a lot of other good things (but those are, indeed, irrelevant).

1:53am • #7
332,693 Points 4 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Lane - very thoughtful response. Mr. Gonta is apparently unaware of the late 70's and early 80's, where we had "stagflation", inflation and recession simultaneously. Something that many economists worry about in today's situation.

I, also, am a proponent of a "fair tax", which, Mr. Hale appears to confuse with a flat tax, two entirely different breeds of animal, and certainly not a giant tax increase at the low end. Perhaps he should Boortz's and Linder's book on the fair tax or check out the website.

One point of difference, in 1971 and 1973  Nixon devalued the dollar on a permanent basis, weakening against other currencies.

6:54am • #8
173,473 Points

Nice post Lane. As usual, the incorrect commenter is no where to be found.

8:11am • #9
352,370 Points 4 Featured Posts Outside Blog

The dollar is losing value right now, but it has nothing to do with "inflation greater than that of other countries."

I think we need to get together with Canada, Mexico, Latin American countries, and South American countries and create an "American Union" to compete more effectively with the European Union, China, Japan, and OPEC. Heck, if we did that, the American Union woulc control more oil than OPEC.

10:04am • #10
579,639 Points 34 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router

Jim...  In order to get 334,000 sales, we have to spend $14.86B dollars.  That is about $44,500 per sale.  That seems worth it, right?  And how many of those people would have bought later anyway?  And do you REALLY think it matters if you have an increase because you bribed people... to be followed by a decrease when you stop the bribe?  Look at Cash for Clunkers.  GIANT increase in sales for August...  GIANT decrease in sales for September when there was no more credit...  That should be a GREAT plan for real estate, right? 

Keep in mind that the number of sales that can be attributed to the tax credit is a WHOLE LOT CLOSER to the 18% than to your 70% figure... 

Ans please go back and read the post.  I am NOT a Flat Taxer... I am a FairTaxer.  There is a significant difference.  I'm not going to bother with your flat tax comments because they aren't relevent to this post... 

Russel - You are correct, that was a WAY over-simplification.  But with the right tax policy, we could compete with the world...  I would say that is the FairTax...

7:22pm • #12
OCT
08
1 Featured Post Outside Blog

Lane - (and Mike)

I have reviewed the methodology Zillow used to your numbers.  It is as out to lunch as their Zestimates.

Well, maybe its off by more than their Zestimates since they admit an average variance of 10% on those.

If I get time (perhaps next week) I'll write a post on that.  You can have at me then.

 

In the mean time, I spent a few minutes on the website Mike mentions.  I'm not clear on much about it yet.  But the numbers I saw for the current tax burden on low income couples is simply way off the mark.  But you'll have to catch me later for more of a response.

 

Russel -

We are in agreement on the desirability of a continental approach to the world economy.

5:37am • #13

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Lilburn, GA

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