Assuming that first time buyers are the ones who start the chain of real estate transactions so move up buyers can move out, do we track and measure the number of first time buyer home sales to determine that housing sales are on the upswing?
What about when the first time buyer purchases a short sale or a foreclosured property and the money stops in those hands? With the high number of foreclosures and short sales, sellers in move up housing (usually priced higher than a typical entry level home for your region) are still not budging too rapidly.
"Look instead at the sale of the first- and second- move-up homes .... when that increases it will be an indication that the food chain is really going and that the bottom is real" says Doug Poretz of Seeking Alpha . So who really holds the title of the plankton in this market?
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