In the September 2009 Real Estate Market Watch for Northern Virginia released by Coldwell Banker, the results of a survey by Zillow.com reveal an interesting perception about the real estate market.  The survey found that 56% of homeowners in the Northeast (including Northern Virginia) felt that their home's value decreased in past 12 months.

In reality, 77% of homes actually decreased in value.  More interesting is how the homeowners project the future of home values -- 82% believed their home will increase in value or stay the same in the next six months.

Overall we applaud a positive attitude but the reality is that - in most places - a generous  inventory of homes will prevent prices from increasing.  We think four months of increasing sales may have contributed to this overconfidence.

And, although 2009 August sales decreased from the previous month, the sales are still better than 2008 August, which is a positive indicator.  As you will see in some of the area graphs listed below, more new listings came on the market in September than were sold. However, the graphs reveal some counties are experiencing much lower inventories indicating the beginning of an appreciating market in that area.

 September 2009 Listings and Sales for Northern Virginia 

Alexandria

Arlington

Fairfax County

Washington, DC

The trends in these current graphs are the best indication of whether home values will continue to decrease or begin to increase depending on the local market.  This means sellers in most areas need to be very realistic about the price position of their house so they won't lose more value by chasing the market down.  Home sellers should remember it is the buyer's perception of value that determines sale prices, not the seller's.  For buyers, this reveals excellent buying opportunities in a market posed to appreciate in the future.

If you or someone you know would like additional insights into this current market, please contact me at 703.927.4554 or michael.bergin2@verizon.net.