The California Association of REALTORS (C.A.R.) is holding it's annual EXPO in San Jose this year and speaking at the EXPO Luncheon this afternoon is the C.A.R. Chief Economist, Leslie Appleton-Young.

Since I am not there, I am depending on industry insider, Inman News to keep me up to date.  Considering the luncheon was not scheduled to end until 1:30 this afternoon and I received my email update at 1:05 p.m., I'm guessing this is pretty current news.

Admittedly the C.A.R. has an agenda to turn lemons into lemonade to support its declining membership.  So the projections for 2010 are of course optimistic and I am sure will be quoted by the mainstream press throughout the next news cycle and a source for future quotes and sound bites for some time to come.

I'm not going to bore you with those projections because they are just that PROJECTIONS that have a caveat.  According to Inman News, Leslie Appleton-Young said that, "The wild cards for 2010 include foreclosures, loan resets, the labor market, the California budget crises and the actions of the federal government." 

SO, WHAT ARE THE ODDS?

So lets see...if there aren't as many foreclosures next year, I guess the market will be better.  As long as interest rates stay low, then again, the market will be just peaches and cream.

If every dead beat (I'm being fascias - don't get mad at me) out there on unemployment goes out and gets a job then I guess we can expect the housing market to be better as well.  Here is a blog article I reposted:   The Effect Of Unemployment Upon Housing For 2010 that is right on the money.

As far as the California Budget Crises...well that's not going to fix itself with the politicians we have collecting paychecks in Sacramento.  Does anyone know that meg Whitman of eBay fame has announced her candidacy for Governor?  I think that will be great - we can get government moving again bases on the highest bid...or maybe someone will just elect for the ‘buy it now' feature of our new world order?  But this is yet another blog to write.

And then my favorite ‘wildcard' that will have a role in determining the favorable projections of the California Housing Market next year is the Federal Government.  YIKES - she sure got that right in labeling those boys and girls in Washington right by calling them WILDCARDS!

WHAT ELSE MIGHT HAVE AN IMPACT?

I for one think that one of the biggest and yet most silent factors that have anything to do with our American economy  - to include our housing crises has to do with foreign investors who have been buying up our debt pretty regularly.  Does anyone know what will happen if the world - or lets just say China - STOPS buying our debt?

I do believe there is  "New World Order" shaping up - but unfortunately the wars, terrorist acts and skirmishes that draw the headlines and feeds the news frenzy is not where we have our real changes taking place.  Rather I believe it is economic.  Now I am not an economist and not pretend to understand the deep mechanics of any of these theories bouncing around - but I was taught many years ago that "He who controls the Gold sets the rules" Unfortunately, there is not much Gold left here for us to control and this is why we are slipping away in our status of the world leader

2010 - FROM MY POINT OF VIEW

Well since I've done such a good job of discounting what I read, I might as well put my neck on the line and share my own personal thoughts.  Now as a disclaimer, I can't speak as a local expert for the entire national real estate market...or even the entire California real estate scene.  What I do claim to be a local expert in is the section of the Inland Empire Region of Southern California in South West Riverside County that I live and work in - the Hemet - San Jacinto Valley, CA.

Our real estate market has traditionally been one of the lowest price points in all of Southern California.  As a result, we probably had more than our share of sub-prime loans buying up the new construction from earlier in this decade.  As a result, I believe many of the homes that will ultimately be foreclosed on - already have been - in the Hemet San Jacinto Valley, CA..  Not to say that we still don't have a huge inventory of homes that will come on the market in the next year as bank owned homes for sale, commonly referred to in the undustry as REO.

My personal belief is that we have not seen the bottom of the market.  We have seen a steady decline in values for the past two years now   Only recently have we seen the market flatten out and even inch slightly higher with each new listing that comes on the market as the sellers hold out for their asking price.

I believe we will possibly see an increase in home values of a very small degree, further fueling the misconception that the housing market is on the rebound.  In August, I wrote The Next Wave of Bad Loans - Option Arms which very clearly spells out a lot of problems in our future for the next few years...unless of course the great WILDCARD in Washington decides everyone should just be given their house (gosh, I wish I bought a bigger house now) then we won't have to worry about the resetting of the Option Arms.

The other serious issue facing the housing market today is the ‘strategic default', which I covered when I wrote "strategic defaults - whoda thunk?" the end of last month.  This is so serious that I believe it should carry the same weight as our fearless leaders in Sacramento and Washington and move this up to full WILDCARD status.

Once the market finishes flattening or even showing some weak signs of recovery there will no doubt be another race to the bottom of the market - as all of the loan modifications and short sales in the world won't be able to save all of the homes that are going to change hands in the next 3 to 5 years as a distressed property.  We still have a serious free fall ahead of us.

Just telling you the way I see it from where I sit...just one REALTORS® opinion...

Whats Yours?