Remember what I recently posted about Statistics?

Illustration by Peter Newell from COSMOPOLITAN, 

August 1898

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CAAR Market Report

2009 After 3 Quarters

Published by the Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS®

Where Are We Now?

Home sales, compared to 2008, showed improvement in the 3^rd Quarter. At mid-year, sales were down 28%, but after the first 9 months of the year, sales are only 19% below the 2008 levels. In the third quarter, sales (845) were only down 6.2% from the same period in 2008 (901). This is the smallest year over year decline we have seen in several quarters in the Charlottesville area. July and August monthly sales were very close to 2008 levels, but September fell back a bit.

As reported in the CAAR Mid-Year Market Report, significantly lower home prices (down 20% or more) are driving the pick-up in sales. In addition, the $8,000 tax credit for first time buyers has supercharged the sale of starter homes (below $300,000). 65% of home sales in the third quarter were in this starter home category, which is consistent with the overall trend for the entire year. The surge in first-time buyers is also a national trend.

Home Sales for the First Nine Months

There were 2,001 homes sold in the Charlottesville area during the first nine months of 2009, which was down 19.1% (-471 sales) from 2008. All local areas are still down from last year: Albemarle -5.4%, Charlottesville -27.4%, Fluvanna -25.3%, Greene -7.7%, Louisa -28.9%, Nelson -25.8%, and Orange -25.5%. Monthly sales for the region had improved slightly each month since November 2008, but that string was broken in August due to normal seasonal swings.

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Conclusions and Predictions

We can draw a few general conclusions from the numbers in this report. First, prices of homes in the Charlottesville area have fallen substantially in 2009. Second, due to excess inventory, we are still in a strong buyer’s market. Third, some areas of this report show a positive or at least stabilizing trend – sales are doing better compared to last year, DOM has flat-lined, and condo sales in Albemarle are rebounding.

The next quarter should continue an improvement in the market compared to 2008. During the 4^th quarter of 2009, we will likely see a year-to-year sales improvement, but only because the 4^th quarter of 2008 was so bad it will be hard not to beat. 2009 may even catch up with sales from 2008 by the end of the year. Additional declines in prices are possible, but it will be hard to tell if these price drops are a result of more sellers finally pricing their properties based on the current market, or a real decline in home values. Only time, and future market reports, will reveal this to us.

This Quarterly Market Report is produced by the Charlottesville Area Association of REALTORS^® using data from the CAAR MLS and the Greater Augusta MLS where noted.