Over the past year, my reports have continually pointed to simple supply and demand indicators in an effort to define a “normal” Marin County real estate market. As noted a year ago, “recovery to a normal market will require stability in financial markets, a strong local employment trend, affordable interest rates and strengthening consumer confidence.”  

Reflecting on the past twelve months, Marin County real estate markets experienced the most difficult and unpredictable dynamics. The financial markets imploded, unemployment trends accelerated and consumer confidence was shattered. And while we benefit from historically low interest rates, credit requirements, approval guidelines, and loan to value ratios are as stringent as in recent memory.

The good news is that over 1,100 single family homes have sold in Marin County in the first nine months of 2009. Successful sellers have processed market dynamics, followed their real estate advisors recommendations and successfully made housing decisions to support their lifestyle. Buyers continue to seek opportunity and will write offers only on the homes that have balanced the best pricing in relation to the relevant and recent neighborhood comparables.

Over 70% of the 1,100 single family homes sold in 2009 closed for under $1 million. Approximately 50% of these 1,100 homes closed in San Rafael or Novato. The velocity of the market under $1 million and in San Rafael and Novato may be the only growth sector in Marin County real estate. The chart below illustrates summary market trends by price point.

 

YTD Sep ’09 v YTD Sep ‘08

Jan 1 – Sep 30, ‘09	$500K - $1M	$1 Million and Up	$1 - $3 Million	$3 Million +
Volume	+12.15%	-50.23%	-48.05%	-56.64%
Units Sold	+12.99%	-47.18%	-46.47%	-53.62%
Average Price	-0.81%	-5.82%	-2.95%	-6.51%
Median Price	-1.89%	-2.70%	-1.06%	-21.71%
Days on Market	+25.00%	+43.66%	+49.25%	+12.00%

 

The average number of days on market has trended over 100 days for 2009. This trend is indicative of sellers’ “hoping” to get a specific price for their home — these hopes are often based on what they paid for it or what they “need” to sell it for in order to maintain lifestyle choices.