In Charles Dickens book, A Tale of Two Cities, the opening paragraph reads, "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, and we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way-in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some if its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only." 

When I read Dickens words again for the first time since my youth, I realize how true they are in relation to much of life as it is experienced and perceived.

True Financial Security comes from the ability to foresee trends.

In the late 1980s Real Estate appeared to be on a never ending cycle of "The sky is the limit". . .It was difficult for us to foresee what was to occur in August of 1990 with the beginning of recession here in Sacramento. With the decline of the Real Estate market we began to see the stock market flourish after a time. Indeed, within the last few years the stock market has climbed significantly, to unprecedented numbers.

For the astute observer of the business world, this translates to the darkness of the stock market, possibly being the Light of the real estate market. Traditionally, real estate has performed well in an inflationary market. Unless interest rates become unreasonably high as they did in the 1970s and early 1980s.

However, during an inflationary market, the cost of goods (including housing), generally appreciate at a more rapid rate.

Currently, we have housing at lower prices than seen a couple of years ago.  We have excellent inventory, and interest rates are still very reasonable. I see the present time as a wonderful window of opportunity for those wishing to wisely place capitol for future growth in real estate investment.

It has been my belief that true financial security hinges on ones ability to see trends in the business market place; and to not place all of one's eggs in one basket. The crucial point for the most growth is the ability to foretell when to buy what eggs for what basket.

Or you can use the analogy that Dickens uses with his season of "Darkness" and his season of "Light." The truth is, there is always Light and Darkness. Realizing there is always opportunity and choices to be made, gives us hope. It is also why some are successful, and others are not.

Dickens words in "The Tale of Two Cities" were meant to illustrate the happenings of a time he was documenting in the year of one thousand seven hundred and seventy-five (1775). . . more than two hundred thirty years ago, and the year before the American Revolution. Yet the words could very well be written to describe this very day, or yesterday. Actually they could illustrate most any time period that man has shuffled across the planet.

Although most of us do not have a crystal ball, developing the ability to foresee trends, can make a significant difference in the world of housing and business investment.

 
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14 Comments on Having the Ability to Foresee Trends Provides True Financial Security

OCT
22
298,297 Points 12 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

Hi Myrl,

Interesting post. But I'm not sure how many of us can actually have even a glimpse in too far in advance. What you said about the 80's was true, for the late 80's, yet the early-mid 80's were rough years. Same thing for the early 70's in r.e. but at that time I was too green to know it back then and just started selling homes.

I've seen these cycles come and go now for almost 40 years, yet this one is deeper and wider than previously experienced, I guess unless one was around during the depression. For me the difference came when I personally did not adjust my lifestyle all that much during the heavy cash flow years. At least the last 2 times around, this is my 4th. The good years lasted a little longer and reached higher than expected.

Btw, I completely agree with you about the current window in our market. I purchased a retirement home myself at the end of 2008. Am I read to retire now? Not at all, yet I felt this was the time to buy for the future.

9:00pm • #1
245,859 Points 5 Featured Posts

Lynda - I remember the 1970s as being wild too.  I wasn't selling real estate back then, but a home our family purchased in October of 1969 actually more than doubled in value in 6 years.  It was nutz.  I've been a Realtor now for 28 years.  I agree with you, for all the cycles we've had during these last 3 decades, there has been nothing like this one.  For some, it is an amazing window of opportunity.

9:15pm • #2
198,396 Points 2 Featured Posts

No one has a crystal ball, but you're right - the ones who come out ahead are the ones who make the most educated guesses about what the market will do.

9:28pm • #3
294,513 Points 4 Featured Posts

ToulaRosebrock.comHi Myrl:

Goodness, it's been years since I read Dickens....

We always hear the first two lines...how powerful the rest of that paragraph is!

Crystal Balls aren't as good as they use to be!

9:45pm • #4
162,386 Points 6 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor

And how many times has my husband said, we should have bought gold when it was $30. LOL!! Myrl, I think you're right, by watching past trends  it does help with the ability to foresee some also.

9:55pm • #5
245,859 Points 5 Featured Posts

Janna - Exactly!

Toula - You're right!  Those crystal balls aren't as good as they use to be.

Mary - Oh yes, the old gold at bargain basement prices. . .LOL!  The thing I have learned about watching trends is to not panic when we hit a low.  It's all cyclic!  It only becomes a problem when you must sell at the bottom of a market, are heavily invested, and can't wait it out.

10:37pm • #6
184,134 Points 8 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

Myrl, that is amazing how Dickens words ring so true now. Timeless. Now I am off to buy a new crystal ball.... 

10:41pm • #7
391,027 Points 1 Featured Post Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

Slow and steady growth will come back soon. I also think now might be one of the best times to invest in Real Estate.

11:58pm • #8
OCT
23
222,654 Points 8 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

Myrl,

I was just thinking of that opening paragraph...the opening line is easy to remember, but the whole paragraph really does drive home the point.  Exactly where we are today.  I't been 40 years since I read the book, I think I may re-read it.

(I wonder, do kids in High School still read books like this?)

John

2:18am • #9
1 Featured Post Outside Blog

It is the best of times if you are able to buy and do not have to sell to do so.

It is the worst of times if you are selling big and going small - downsizing.

5:18am • #10
452,859 Points 28 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

Myrl, Like some of the other comments, I remembered the paragraph so well.  We had to memorize the whole thing in school and I haven't seen it or thought of it in years.  Funny, that it applies to yesterday and today.

5:37am • #11
OCT
24
385,409 Points 28 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

I love reading about your insight, Myrl, and the parallels you've used are excellent. I know often that I amaze people with my real estate predictions, which I do every November for the following year, but there's a secret to it. I just look at the way things are moving and figure they'll keep going in that direction, unless I know a roadblock is coming down the pipeline.

sacramento agent

11:41am • #12
OCT
25
245,859 Points 5 Featured Posts

Andrea - Dickens was one of those writers that often demonstrated visionary influence when he wrote.

John - Yes, in some schools they still read. . .Albeit the electronic versions:-)

Carole - I had to memorize it too. . .Although, I have a few memory holes in it now:-)

Elizabeth - I do that too.  I remember thinking in mid 2005 that prices on housing seemed so artificially high, and unsustainable.  Yet, the economy seemed so resilient to every thing thrown its way.  What many of us didn't know and couldn't predict, was the impact of packaging of risky mortgages on the derivatives and credit defaul swap markets.  Alas, we fell victim to a toxic slurry, most - other than those in a few back rooms on Wall Street, even knew existed.

5:42pm • #13
OCT
29
542,882 Points 10 Featured Posts Outside Blog

I knew I had read those words somewhere, but I think it was in my Cliff Notes. LOL

2:53am • #14

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Myrl Jeffcoat

Sacramento, CA

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GreatWest GMAC Real Estate

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