The 30 year rate rose again this week rising from 4.92 to 5.00. Now in the last two weeks 30 year mortgage rates have risen from 4.87 to 5.00. Most of the other major mortgage products rose as well. The 15 year rate rose from 4.37 to 4.43. Both the 5 year arm rising from 4.38 to 4.40 and the 1 year arm was the only product to fall moving from 4.60 to 4.54.

While this is not a huge jump the question is are we seeing the tip of the iceberg with rising rates? The expectation has been that rates would rise as the economy improves. While the economy is by no means doing well it seems to be improving from what we have seen in the last year. Additionally, the government has lowered its volume of buying mortgage backed securities. This has helped mortgage rates to rise in the last two weeks and led to speculation of further rises. Below are rates for the last few weeks.

Oct 22, 2009
30-yr 5.00 15-yr 4.43 5-yr ARM 4.40 1-yr ARM 4.54

Oct 15, 2009
30-yr 4.92 15-yr 4.37 5-yr ARM 4.38 1-yr ARM 4.60

Oct 08, 2009
30-yr 4.87 15-yr 4.33 5-yr ARM 4.35 1-yr ARM 4.53

Oct 01, 2009
30-yr 4.94 15-yr 4.36 5-yr ARM 4.42 1-yr ARM 4.49

Sep 24, 2009
30-yr 5.04 15-yr 4.46 5-yr ARM 4.51 1-yr ARM 4.52

Mar 26, 2009
30-yr 4.85 15-yr 4.58 5-yr ARM 4.96 1-yr ARM 4.85

In spite of the increases rates are still relatively low. They are lower than at any point before January 2009 and lower than they were just last month. In addition to looking at rates we also like to see mortgage payments. Using our mortgage calculator we translated rates from October 22, October 8 and March 26 into a mortgage payment for a 200k loan.

Oct 22
30-yr $1073.64
15-yr $1522.84
5-yr ARM $1001.52
1-yr ARM $1018.12

Oct 08
30-yr $1057.8
15-yr $1512.66
5-yr ARM $995.62
1-yr ARM $1016.93

Mar 26
30-yr $1055.38
15-yr $1538.17
5-yr ARM $1068.75
1-yr ARM $1055.38

As we can see again there is not a huge difference. Compared to 6 months ago a mortgage payment is only 1.73 percent higher ($18.26 more a month).

So what is going to happen moving forward? The fear of rates hitting 12 percent has probably lessoned. Basically if the economy quickly recovered the speculation was that inflation could spiral out of control. Since the economic recovery seems to be a somewhat slow process the expectation is that mortgage rates and inflation will rise but it's doubtful they will move above 10 percent.

That said if one is looking at buying its best to lock in rates now considering that rates are rising and the expectation is that they will probably be higher a month from now.


Ki has lived and worked in Austin, Texas for over 10 years. He has a comprehensive understanding of Austin Tx real estate. His site provides graphs of historical mortgage interest rates along with a free mortgage calculator.