Tuesday October 27, 2009

WASHINGTON (AP) - It's about to become official: The recession is over - but not the pain.

The government will release figures this week expected to show that the economy has awakened from its deepest slump since the 1930s and is in the early stages of a recovery. How can both be possible?

The government releases third-quarter Gross Domestic Product figures on Thursday. Many forecasters say they will show GDP growing at an annual rate of about 3 percent, validating a widely held belief among economists that the recession ended in June or July.

But try telling that to the more than 15 million still unemployed, the small businesses and individuals who can't get loans and the people whose homes are worth less than their mortgages.

Assertions by government and private economists that the recession is over - issued amid graphic examples of continuing wide distress - are raising fresh questions about economic scorekeeping.

A survey of economic forecasters prepared by Blue Chip Economic Indicators, a research organization, predicted GDP growth to remain positive in each quarter through the end of 2010. In a survey by the National Association of Business Economics, 34 of 43 economists polled said the recession is over.

"From a technical perspective, the recession is very likely over," said Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

Stocks have surged about 50 percent since their March lows. And a year after Washington rescued the financial industry, some large banks and Wall Street firms have roared back to profitability.

Economists suggest some of the expected increase in economic growth is a bounce off the bottom. They attribute it to government stimulus spending, including the now-expired Cash for Clunkers program; accommodative Fed monetary policies and widespread cost-cutting by companies.

To Keep things in perspective ...........even though the recession is over...........

  "Absent robust job growth, it is not a true economic recovery," said White House economic adviser Jared Bernstein.

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