I am always looking for ways to discover earlier signs of impending movements in the Tallahassee real estate market. The key to forecasting the future is knowing the “natural order of things” and then looking for the first signs of the first steps in the process.

The best forecasters build models, based upon the end-state that they are seeking, and them work them backwards, always seeking for clues of earliest signs. For example, we could create a simple model like this:

Home Sales In Tallahassee

This shows the hierarchy of what must occur for us to see a turn in the housing market. We are seeking year-over-year increases in home sales. Currently, our housing market activity roughly down 34% from where it “normally” is and over 60% down from the top of the market. The following real estate graph of historical “Daily Buyer Activity” shows we are:

The left scale shows the average number of homes sold in a day in the Tallahassee MLS is currently around 6.0, but it has been as high as 16! We want our forecasting model to tell us what is going to happen next, so looking at the model, our next exam should focus on pending home sales in Tallahassee.

[click to see PENDING SALES REPORT and REALTOR.com Report…]

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