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Recession Over? Not With 21 Percent Unemployment.

By
Services for Real Estate Pros with Think Glink Media

How bad is the economy? Despite what you see going on with the stock market, and the continuing talk about profits and green shoots, it’s pretty bad.

According to the official unemployment numbers, not quite 10 percent of the U.S. population is unemployed. But that unemployment number doesn’t include everyone who doesn’t have a job but wishes they had one.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) surveys only 60,000 households every month and asks them if they “have a job, are looking for a job, or have given up, or have gone back to school, or retired,” writes MSNBC.com senior producer John W. Schoen.

The government also surveys 150,000 businesses and government payrolls to find out how many jobs there are compared to prior months. When all is going well with the economy, these surveys can be somewhat accurate. But with what’s been going on, they may be way off. At least, that’s what some labor economists suspect. In September, Schoen reports that payroll data showed a loss of 263,000 jobs. The household survey showed a loss of 710,000 jobs.

According to the BLS, the September 2009 U-6 measure of unemployment stood at 17 percent. A year ago, it was at 10.6 percent.

If that wasn’t bad enough, some analysts and economists factor in long-term unemployed, the so-called “discouraged jobless,” who have been unemployed for more than a year and have fallen out of the BLS calculations. That’s how these economists get to 21.4 percent true unemployment.

Is the recession over? I’m not sure how it could be, not with 21 percent unemployment.

To read Ilyce's entire article, logon to CBSMoneyWatch.

Comments (8)

Brian Brumpton
Keller Williams Boise - Boise, ID
Boise Idaho Real Estate

That sure doesn't paint a very pretty picture.  I would say there's more to being out of a recession than just what happens on Wall Street.  It's too bad that's all that seems to count.

Oct 28, 2009 05:32 AM
Associate Broker Falmouth MA Cape Cod Heath Coker
https://teamcoker.robertpaul.com - Falmouth, MA
Heath Coker Berkshire Hathaway HS Robert Paul Prop

There are so many numbers all over the place. I heard a builder tell the local MLS tour today he'd just sold a house for $850K and $650K in a $450K area. A new chinese proverb: He who states the numbers has to provide validation.

Oct 28, 2009 05:33 AM
Sandra White
John L Scott Real Estate - Port Townsend, WA
Experienced Residential Resale Broker

That is a real eye opener to look at it that way.  I knew a lot of people were under-employed, or working part time.  Not a pretty picture.  With all the tax hikes coming our way, it is sure to get even worse. 

Oct 28, 2009 05:33 AM
Dennis Duvernay Broker/Owner
Hillview Realty - Northbridge, MA

Yikes Ilyce...do you have any positive news you can publish?

Oct 28, 2009 05:34 AM
Lori Bowers
La Quinta, CA
The Lori Bowers Group

Sadly, americans are going down farther and farther!  We need to bring jobs back to our country and get our people back to work!

Oct 28, 2009 05:36 AM
Syreeta Saunders
Keller Williams Realty Centre - Randallstown, MD
Keys, MBA - The Keys2Day Team

I heard a radio program yesterday that went on and on about the fact that the recession was over.  I actually remarked to my husband last night that it might be technically over but the effects on the people will be around for some time unfortunately. 

Oct 28, 2009 05:36 AM
Jeff Craig
Hang Me Up Photos - Jamestown, NC
Greensboro Area Real Estate Photography

Unemployment is 10.4% in NC.  The highest I can ever remeber previously was 7%.  Recession over?  I don't think so.

Oct 28, 2009 06:23 AM
Tom Braatz Waukesha County Real Estate 262-377-1459
Coldwell Banker - Oconomowoc, WI
Waukesha County Realtor Real Estate agent. SOLD!

Ilyce,

It is always refreshing to read a post that is so very true. The unemployment in Wisconsin is also very amazing, and larger than many may think. Thanks for the great read.

Oct 28, 2009 09:27 AM