At the forefront of many developer’s and homebuilder’s and their constituent’s minds is the question; when will it
get back to normal? We now know, based on the leading economic indicators, nationally the economy bottomed in
March of this year and the greater Boise market area bottomed in August. Based on our recovery period analysis of
the last nine recessions, over the past 65 years, technical market recovery was consistently achieved two quarters
after the quarter in which the market bottomed. Market normalcy was achieved in the second quarter following the
1st quarter of GDP growth.

Nationally, this suggests there will be a positive GDP in 3rd quarter of this year with normalcy achieved by the end
of the 1st quarter of 2010. This analysis suggests Boise would achieve technical recovery by the end of the 1st
quarter of 2010 and normalcy by the end of the 3rd quarter 2010. However, due the scope and breadth of the impact of the recession on the greater Boise economy, it is not anticipated it will achieve normalcy for an additional
two quarters. The new home construction and master planned community development industries are not anticipated to achieve normalcy until the 4th quarter of 2011 or two years from now, due to the declines in nonfarm employment, decline in homes prices, residual land values and impact of the recession on real estate development
lending.

Read Boise New Construction Report

Trey Langford
www.BuildIdaho.com