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They aren't ready to declare, "Recession Over!"

By
Real Estate Agent with Laura Gail Gwyn Properties

It's all over the news that our recession is over.  Let's be real here folks.

They determined this because our economy grew 3 consistent quarters.  It grew because of stimulus driven gains in consumer spending and home building which are now over.  Household purchases may have climbed 3.4 percent nationally but we are a long way from where we should be.  Here locally, according to the Willamette Valley Multiple Listing Statistics, 2009 is down 14% from 2008, 2008 was down 34% from 2007 and on down from there.  So it isn't hard to climb a little after hitting rock bottom.

Can this be sustained in 2010 and generate the much needed jobs for those still unemployed?  Will they give us what we need in revising the tax credit that was only given to 1st time home buyers?  We are still waiting for information that will help us tremendously in 2010 so it is a little soon to believe we are out of the recession.  I understand what they are saying so don't send me a bunch of hate comments.  I just want to make sure everyone knows where we really are.  I also don't think my definition of recession is the same as theirs. 

Consumer spending accounts for 70% of the economy.  Don't hunker down and not spend.  I am reminding you to spend wisely.  Spend with cash from your need vs. want list. 

Grasp this cartoon for a minute.  "Official" word on this recession report can't be confirmed yet.  Robert Hall, head of the committee that makes this call out of the National Bureau of Economic Research said in August it may take more than a year for their group to reach this conclusion.  Let's use this next couple of months wisely.  Continue to get your finances in order.  If you didn't get help or have someone review your financial picture because you were in shell shock, do it now.  I have resources available for you if you feel like you are still trying to stop the bleeding. 

This is the perfect time to pay down debt and get organized.  I think we have all learned a lot of great lessons in this economy.  It has been fantastic for my family.  I'll have to tell you about that sometime.  Get your numbers organized and let me help you. 

Trudy Martin, Resident Lending Group will share how to figure your debt to income ratio Monday on my blog.  You need to know where you stand currently and what your goals are.  If they open up this tax credit to existing home owners you want to take advantage of it.  You probably have already been long overdue down sizing and getting debt cleaned up and out of your life.  To get a tax credit on top of it would be a double serving of icing on the cake! 

Feel free to contact me directly anytime!

Pat Champion
John Roberts Realty - Eustis, FL
Call the "CHAMPION" for all your real estate needs

I'm with you I think it will take time to heal and our economy to recover before we can declare the recession is over. At least we have some good news let's all hope it continues.

Oct 29, 2009 04:51 AM
Rob Arnold
Sand Dollar Realty Group, Inc. - Altamonte Springs, FL
Metro Orlando Full Service - Investor Friendly & F

You have to wonder who these people in the government are kidding?  Maybe by some economists standards we aren't techcially in a recession, but everyone is still feeling it out in the real world.

Oct 29, 2009 04:51 AM
Melina Tomson
Tomson Burnham, llc Licensed in the State of Oregon - Salem, OR
Principal Broker/Owner, M.S.

Laura this is a really good blog post and I LOVE that cartoon.  Keep it up!!

Oct 29, 2009 05:07 AM
Gerry Michaels
Glasswork Media Arts - Gettysburg, PA
GettysburgGerry Social Meida

Laura, great cartoon and post. It just re-enforces my belief that the government (state or National) has no clue what the average Joe is up against. This recession is far from over in the real world.

Oct 29, 2009 06:45 AM
Victoria Linton
First American Title Company of Oregon - Beaverton, OR

Great advice! I knew consumer spending drove a lot of the economy, but had no idea it was 70%.

Oct 29, 2009 03:57 PM
Laura Gwyn
Laura Gail Gwyn Properties - Salem, OR

Pat, I think any good news is awesome news for the public to hear.  I just didn't want my peeps tearing it up at the Nordstrom Sale next week!  lol...

Rob, I was excited to see you guys post so quickly.  I had barely refreshed my screen!

Melina, Now if I can only find one pertaining to these consumer cards raising rates for no reason...  lol...

Gerry, I every realtor should have to move every 5 years to keep the pain fresh, and I think every senator should have to choose and follow just 1 public assistance program so they know what it is like.  So many have never felt any experience the way the public/working class has.

Victoria, yes my darling, we are very affected by consumer spending, so shop local!  lol...  I am a huge supporter of shopping local when I can.  I know you do the same thing.  Good job.  Where's your photo?

Oct 30, 2009 03:02 AM
Tarris Rogers
Cascade Sotheby's International Realty - Bend, OR
Bend Oregon Real Estate

I think back to how merciless the media was over falling home prices which I have no doubt made the problem even worse.  I can't help but think they'll jump all over the 'Recession's Over' bandwagon just as hard.  It makes me wonder if the media circus will improve the general publics perception of the economy being better than it really is.  It will be interesting to see how things play out. 

Nov 02, 2009 09:18 AM
Jim Allhiser
Perfection Inspection, Inc. - Salem, OR
Salem, Oregon Home Inspector

Laura,  Good stuff.   We have all got to take care of our own economy.  This down turn has certainly helped to refocus my family's finances. 

We improved our situation by cutting spending.   Those cuts made every dollar work harder at the necessary things.  It has worked wonderfully. 

I think I may need to give the federal government some pointers.  They may need hints on how to manage a budget in hard times........

Nov 03, 2009 02:27 AM
Laura Gwyn
Laura Gail Gwyn Properties - Salem, OR

Tarris, I am with ya on that!  I think the media has a huge impact on what the average Joe believes to be true.  Talk about free advertising for Tamiflu!  I just wish we could convince them to help us a little with their words.

Jim, my family is in the best financial shape it has ever been in.  We aren't going back to all that spending either.  I truly found the higher volume of deals meant more people to push the paper.  It all net the same in the end after payroll, taxes, space, equipment, etc.  I love this new lean and mean machine!  I'm not going back.

Nov 05, 2009 12:34 AM