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This week will likely prove to be very active in terms of mortgage rate movement due to the economic data and other events that are scheduled. There are seven economic reports scheduled for release, but in addition to the data, another Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be held this week. Together, we have the makings of a potentially volatile week in the financial and mortgage markets.
There are two housing related reports scheduled for release this week, but neither is likely to cause any movement in mortgage rates. May's Existing Home Sales will be released tomorrow morning while New Home Sales will be posted Tuesday morning. These reports give us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but usually do not cause much movement in mortgage rates.
Tuesday also brings us the first important report of the week with the release of June's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). The CCI is very important to the financial markets because it measures consumer willingness to spend, which is important because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. If it shows an increase in confidence from last month, we can expect to see the bond market falter and mortgage rates rise slightly. Current forecasts are calling for a reading 106.0, down from last month's 108.0 reading.
The only important release scheduled for Wednesday is May's Durable Goods Orders, which gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength. It is known to be quite volatile from month to month and is expected to show a decline of 1.0% in May's new orders. A smaller than expected increase would be the ideal scenario for the bond market and could lead to a decline in mortgage pricing Wednesday.
The only relevant economic data scheduled for release Thursday is the final reading to the1st Quarter GDP and weekly unemployment claims. The GDP data is quite aged now (covers January through March) and will likely have little impact on the bond market or mortgage pricing unless it varies greatly from previous readings. Last month's first revision showed a 0.6% rate of growth, but analysts are expecting to see an upward revision to 0.8%.
The FOMC meeting that begins Wednesday afternoon will adjourn Thursday afternoon. It is widely expected that Mr. Bernanke and company will not change key short-term interest rates at this meeting. But, as we have seen so many times in the past, it is the post meeting statement that often creates the most volatility in the markets. They could give an opinion of the overall economy, hinting at a possible future move or lack of one. Statements like these could cause a knee-jerk reaction in the markets and possibly mortgage pricing Thursday afternoon.
There are two reports due Friday morning. The first is the release of May's Personal Income and Outlays data. This report gives us an indication of consumer ability to spend and current spending activity. Analysts are expecting to see an increase of 0.6% in income and a 0.7% rise in the spending portion of the report. Smaller than expected increases should be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. The second report of the day is the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index's final reading for June. Unless we see a significant change to the preliminary reading of 83.7, I expect this data to be a non-factor in the market.
Overall, tomorrow will likely be the quietest day of the week. The most active should be Tuesday or Thursday due to the importance of the data and FOMC meeting. Wednesday's Durable Goods Orders and a 5-year Treasury Note auction could also make it a busy day. Friday's news could also affect mortgage rates, but likely not as much as earlier days. This would definitely be a good week to maintain constant contact with your mortgage professional.
Disclaimer: ActiveRain Corp. does not necessarily endorse the real estate agents, loan officers and brokers listed on this site. These real estate profiles, blogs and blog entries are provided here as a courtesy to our visitors to help them make an informed decision when buying or selling a house. ActiveRain Corp. takes no responsibility for the content in these profiles, that are written by the members of this community.