Obviously, from the market numbers, people do not get as excited about "historically low interest rates and low home prices" as they do low rates and rapidly escalating values. My numbers show it, your numbers show it and the national reports show it. Oh there are a few people "doing better than they ever have" but I'm a long stretch from generating the 400-600 loans a year I enjoyed in 2004 through 2007 - cue Archie and Edith singing "Those Were The Days". So if we thought low cost of money and low housing prices were fueling the business obviously we were wrong.
We didn't think that, though. We thought the fact that almost anyone could buy homes as primary residence or investment properties was driving the market. However, there are some very important figures to note: Interest rates are lower than ever and housing costs are extremely low.
As you can see from this chart of actual data this is THE point of lowest average interest rates since 1971. With rates in the high 4s and low 5s for prime borrowers and the 40 year average at 9.024 percent I would encourage everyone to think how it may be possible to buy that new home or first home now. I have never said, "right now is the best time to buy" but if that time has ever come it is very likely right now.
There is no way interst rates are going to hold this low for a myriad of reasons including inflation and dollar devaluation. Right now the government is spending your future income as fast as they can pass Bills and Resolutions into law. You can have whatever political bent you care but the facts are the facts and those are the facts. The national debt will soon cause interest rates to begin to rise. They may not rise as quickly as they did back in the late 70s when inflation was out of control thanks to massive government misspending but rise they will and I have not found one economist worth their weight in salt who think the rates will not reach double digits in the next 3 to 5 years.
Compare those interest rates to the Robert Schiller hosueing data set from Irrational Exhuberance and you have a very unique picture:
That top red line "Home Prices" really tells a story. If we combine the two we see housing prices back down to almost 1980 levels and interest rates lower than any other time in this history.
Does this mean now is a good time to buy? The best time to buy?
Only if you need to. If you do not need to buy then no time is a good time to buy - that includes for investors. In fact investment money is much more difficult to find overall than it has been since the mid 90s. Oh, I'm sure someone will disagree but the facts are the facts - just because Joe Smith in Montegumma has been able to borrow the money to buy 10 homes in the last 12 months doesn't do a thing for Bob Davis in Roswell. I'm sure Joe Smith will be more than happy to sell you his book for $29.95 or his seminar for $199 if you know what I mean.
As always if you are in the southeast and you need answers never hesitate to call me on my cell at 678-439-8683 whether you are an agent, seller, builder, buyer, or home owner. I will be more than happy to answer your questions and provide services where I can.
Ken Cook - Georgia - FHA, USDA, VA and Conventional Home Loans (678) 439-8683
7 Comments on Housing prices and interest rates are extremely low - so what?
NOV
07
2009
I am surprised that interest rates are still low! I am also waiting for UW guidelines in our area to absolutely start beating up investors that are financing due to the bottom falling out of our rental market (softened demand due to economy and first time buyers that were former renters and hightened supply being bought by all cash and financed investors expecting a certain return!)
"Historically low rates" - talk about beating a dead horse. I'm sure many consumers are completely numb to this statement. Rates could be 1% and half of them wouldn't know it because the horn has been tooted for so long.
And a phrase I often use with borrowers on the fence ... "You never know when the bottom of the market is until it is in the rearview mirror". Me, you, or the mailman may say this or that, but that statement is always applicable.
Maybe I should show them an old financial calculations book I came across when I was looking for something in some of my old paperwork. It was in the bottom of a box in storage from 20 years ago. The rates STARTED at 13% and went up from there. These days, buyers whine if they might have to pay more than 5%.
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I am surprised that interest rates are still low! I am also waiting for UW guidelines in our area to absolutely start beating up investors that are financing due to the bottom falling out of our rental market (softened demand due to economy and first time buyers that were former renters and hightened supply being bought by all cash and financed investors expecting a certain return!)