I still don't like year over year statistics

Ah....but singing the praises of getting listed in the winter...you are more apt to have less competition and as a seller get a  higher price...that sell in the spring stuff is bunk...only for the thin of blood and weak of snow shoes....

I never got the point of using year by year comparisons, either. Which is the main reason why I don't use them in my market reports. Looking at immediate gains or dips in home prices makes more sense for sellers, especially if they are thinking about selling in the near future.

huh???  Is there a point to your post?  I'm sorry, but I'm from up North where it's cold - but predictably so.  So predictable that I can rely on comparable sales for the last fall and winter to examine market absorption rates between the two periods to advise my clients on whether the market is improving or not.

Our market here has been going steadily up for about 6 months.  People have trouble believing it.

Year over year states are, indeed, meaningless and mislead the consumer. 

I want to see recent comps, up to about 4 months, or continuing averages to show trends.  That might have meaning.

Medians are also worthless, IMO.

Hey Jim,  The year-over-year stats only work in a consistently up ( or down ) market where they provide the long view - at best a weak argument.  Now, send me some of that Julian Apple Crumb pie !

Jim, you're so very right. That's what makes me nuts about NAR using their wonderful statistics.  3rd Q 2008 is down from 3rd Q 2009 - gee ya think?  Besides, it's like ancient history!  Any of those numbers are no longer pertinent or valid for any purpose other than to document that portion of time.  It's gone, good or bad, let's just stay current.

Jim, Some people love year-over-year stats and some people hate them. Perhaps the issue is how some people use them to make a point in short term decision making.  My opinion is they have their part to play in long-term-trend-analysis. JMHO

Jim -

Year-on-Year stats are meaningful to the extent that sales do vary seasonally. 

I don't know how NAR does "seasonal adjustments".  But I simply like to compare October to Octobers over the last few years because comparing October to September doesn't tell the whole picture.

For example:  What tells you the most about what's happening in one of many MLS market areas in my local area:  The first chart below - that compares October to the last few months or the later two charts that approximate "seasonal adjustment" by comparing this October to Octobers of prior years?

FERRY STREET BRIDGE

market area of EUGENE, Lane County, OR

New Listings may include properties previously listed by the same or a different brokerage.
Cancellations or Expired Listings may, therefore, by duplicated in the active category.
Pending Sales are those subject to a new sale agreement within the month.
Active Listings are those for sale on the last day of the month.
Closed Listings are those that closed in escrow within the report month.

*****

A decade's worth of supply (Active Listings) and demand (Closed Sales)
for the

Months of October

2001-2009:

And a decade of Average Prices for Closed Sales
for the

Months of October

2001-2009:

These average sales prices represent the arithmetic mean for those residential closed sales in this RMLS market area.   The mix of homes sold varies over time.  The average price for some months is drastically affected by an unusual number of homes selling at the TOP or BOTTOM of the range of prices.  An arithmetic median would make for a better comparison but is unavailable from RMLS.

Well, I agree with your last statement that it's both a good time to buy and a good time to sell.  The market is fairly down here in Massachusetts.  You may sell at a loss but if you are upgrading you will definitely win in the long run.

Jim,

Great advice. And good point about older statistics. Sounds like your market in San Diego has been thriving for a while now. That's good news!

Good advice Jim and well worth the feature. Statistics can be interpreted many ways. It's the clients situation that matters.

I think these statistics just give us an overall trend.  Can't pay too much attention to them.

There are lies, damn lies, and statistics. 

Wow I guess I should stop looking at statistics from what I read here.  Personally I use stats to see market trends in particular areas I work in.  I create my own database and I don't use the ones provided through MLS or my local board which can be meaningless. 

Recently I had a client that wanted to de-list and when I showed her area specific data and what was happening she held on.  I was even so bold as to say we should see a contract in a couple of weeks.  Within one week we got two offers on a home that had been on the market for almost three years with no offers and all comparables in the neighborhood that had sold were foreclosures.  We closed and she was happy that she saw some area specific numbers that discounted what she was hearing from the media and other people she talked to. 

Stats work if your willing to put the work into making them useful and not rely on what is handed out generically.  Take care and have a great day.

 Very good info, I agree that stats can be a reference point but the clients situation is more pertinent.