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The market always heals from the bottom up" according to Paul Bishop, National Association of Realtors Vice President of Research. According to the recently released sales numbers 47% of buyers this past year were first time home buyers.  Surpassing the previous high record of first time purchasers set back in 1991

 "These buyers are critical to housing and a general economic recovery ...they absorb inventory, free existing owners to make a trade and stimulate related goods and services " said Bishop.  He compared this rise to the last recession in 1991, where the same dynamic played out "first time home buyers started the chain reaction that led the nation out of recession" he said.   Bishop credits tax incentives,record high affordability, and pent up buyer demand to this spike in recent sales.   Economists would also credit the FED with suppressing any immediate rise in interest rates affecting home mortgages while the economy is still so fragile.  

BUYER PROFILES ARE ALSO DIFFERENT THAN ONE WOULD EXPECT  

The median age of a first time home buyer is 30 indicating that some are younger and some are older. They are planning to live in their homes for at least ten years. The typical cost Nationwide was $156,000 down 7% from last years figure of $165,000. 87% of First time Home Buyers surveyed consider their home to be a good investment."   Single Family homes sold a higher rate than other forms of housing.  In fact 78% of the home achieved were single family homes

HOW ARE BUYERS PAYING FOR HOMES?   96% Chose a fixed rate mortgage.  (55% used FHA compared to 8% Using VA Programs) 61% of First time buyers used their savings as a down payment. 22% received down payment assistance as a gift from family.      6% received loans for down payments from family 6% tapped into a 401 (k) program  

WHAT IS OLD IS NEW AGAIN- SAVING MONEY FOR A DOWN PAYMENT ON A HOME

39% of home buyers have cut back on luxury items, 38% cut back on entertainment and 30% cut back spending on clothing according to the study.

And a staggering 80% of first time home buyers are using the Internet.  

HOW HAVE RECENT CHANGES IN REAL ESTATE AFFECTED SALES?  

13% Experienced a Purchase Agreement that was canceled, terminated or fell through "This raises the question of how many potential buyers were unsuccessful because of problems with appraisals or loan qualifications. The market would be stronger without these problems" Bishop added.

Only 8% of applicants were rejected for loans (a 92% success rate) 12% of applicants said that financing their first home was more difficult than they expected. 8% of all buyers paid cash.  

85% of Successful Home Sellers used a Real Estate Professional. Sellers surveyed want agents to price their homes competitively, find a buyer, market the property and sell within a specific time frame.     

THE TAX CREDIT  EXPANSION INTO 2010   

The expansion of the tax incentive program will extend to homes placed under purchase agreements by April 30, 2010  and will include home buyers who have owned a home in the past 5 years.

  Repeat Buyers  surveyed  had an average age of  48, earning $88,100 and plan to stay in the homes they purchased on average for 12 years.  These buyers typically bought more expensive housing. The median price on a National level was  $224,500  

RECORD DECLINE IN FOR SALE BY OWNER PROPERTIES.  

In the actual number of homes sold without representation was a record low according the most recent survey only 6%. Declining for the second year in row. 

The most difficult tasks reported by owners attempting to sell homes themselves were,; preparing and fixing the home, understanding and performing the paperwork and selling within the planned length of time.

The overwhelming majority of successful sellers used a Real Estate Professional full service brokerage.

 Want to know more about how to Marketing works?

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Allison Stewart Broker, SFR, CDPE 

407-616-9904www.kissimmee-stcloudflhomes.com

                                                                                                       

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75 Comments on INTERESTING INFO ON WHO IS BUYING AND HOW THE HOUSING MARKET HEALS FROM THE BOTTOM UP

NOV
18
2009
429,318 Points 57 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Called Shot Master

The Internet has become the most popular source for buyers looking to purchase.  The other big news is For Sale By Owner sales have sunken to an all time low. 

5:05am • #1

FSBOs should be at an all time low when housing inventories have been at all time highs. Trying to sell a home yourself in the face of an enormous overhang of inventory has got to be very depressing.

5:38am • #2
1,544,582 Points 416 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

One thing I find interesting about these stats is the number of buyers using their 401(k).  Back in 1991, a large percentage of the buyers to whom I sold used their 401(k).

Sadly, a large number of these buyers used tax payer's incentives to buy, i.e., the tax credit incentive, etc.  These stats may, eventually, cost us more than we gain. 

5:50am • #3
1 Featured Post

Allison, great "snapshot" of who your target should/should not be. Thanks for sharing!

6:05am • #4
450,896 Points 2 Featured Posts

Wonderful information. The best blog I've read this morning

6:29am • #5
125,489 Points

The bottom-up theory is not a surprise.  Makes sense to me. I am curious, as to how the restrictions on not selling homes for  ten years in some of these government programs will affect the market in the future.

6:31am • #6
429,318 Points 57 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Called Shot Master

DAVE- I see it in my market of St. Cloud Florida and agree with that.   FSBO's lack exposure, marketing and knowledge of contract negotiations, form preparation and process of selling a home.  46% of FSBO properties were sold to peopole they already knew. AWhich accoubnts for an extremely small percentage of all homes sold in a one year period.

Thank you for commenting!

LENN- I am not convinced entirely that the Tax Incentive will have a negative impact- if we are able to clear the new obstacles and lender scrutiny, provided these people keep their jobs given 9/10 people are working- they should be OK.

The expanded credit to include previous home owners may also serve well in the higher end homes of which the buyers are slightly older and have larger incomes.  So overall I do think we will see a controlled recovery.  Do you agree?

 

6:37am • #7
429,318 Points 57 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Called Shot Master

JANICE- THANK YOU!  YOUR COMMENT JUST MADE MY DAY!

6:38am • #8
497,372 Points 21 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Called Shot Master

Great info! Thank you for posting it.

And Lenn read my mind. I've been thinking about that too.

6:43am • #9
776,800 Points 47 Featured Posts Outside Blog Hit Router Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

Allison,

Great data. I wonder what it would look like if they were able to normalize for the first time home buyer tax incentive. I hope the market still has legs after the incentive expires next year.

Rich

6:43am • #10

Allison: Great post to start the morning! I just put one of my listings under agreement last night. First time homebuyers about 30 years old. Great house, great neighborhood and unbelieveable price. An unusual short sale. We don't have many short sales in my market and even fewer bank owned properties. The FBSO market here is laughable.

Your stats on who is buying and what is being bought is playing out in my market. The properties priced under $300,000 (our low end) are being snapped up rather quickly. Our upper end is quieter than in years past. For the 1st time since 1999, we have not closed on a property over $1.5M. Many flirting with that number, but not passing yet. Of 118 singles in MLS, we have 30 over 1M. and 25 under $300K.

6:52am • #11
335,235 Points 11 Featured Posts Outside Blog Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

It's interesting to look back my market and my own business this year and see how they differed or agreed with these stats.  Great information.  Thanks for posting it.

-Scott

6:58am • #12
398,164 Points 3 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

Here in San Diego due to the low inventory that we are currently experiencing ------FSBO's are in thriving mode. The pendulum is swinging back to when the market was hot.

Enjoyed your post.

7:33am • #13
360,757 Points 36 Featured Posts Called Shot Master

Allison,  You did a great job of capsulizing what's going on.  I'm in a really tough market as my typical buyer (back when we had buyers) was retired, buying second homes or investment properties.  Almost all of my deals were once cash (moving money) and my average sale was $575K. 

I've definitely had to "Shift".  Suddenly those retirees are holding onto their money and funding for condos has all but disappeared here.  So...I'm expanding my market, and trying to work smarter since I've always worked harder. 

7:37am • #14
224,348 Points 22 Featured Posts Outside Blog Hit Router Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

Allison - tons of great information here.  I am surprised to see the average age of the first-time homebuyer is 30.  I would have expected that number to be lower.  Looks like sellers are also seeing the advantage is working with a real estate professional.  Best wishes to you!

7:45am • #15
1 Featured Post Outside Blog

Great info. I am not surprised to see the average age up to 30 because I have already been surprised by how many first time homebuyers I have worked with in the past year have been in their 40s or 50s!

7:59am • #16
395,027 Points 35 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Hit Router Attended Rain Camp

Allison:

This is well-written, as always and gives us a good picture of what has taken place this year in the housing market.

The tax incentives have definitely had a positive impact, bringing out so many first-timers. Also the the low interest rates have helped.  I think the extension of tax benefits to all home buyers will also boost some move-up sales. Sure, we have to pay for these programs, eventually, but the housing market needed a shot in the arm, and it would appear that it has helped.

It is also great news that people are realizing the importance of using a professional to sell their homes rather than "pulling out their own teeth."  Theses are good numbers.

 

8:00am • #17
144,487 Points 1 Featured Post

Thank you for the information.  Very interesting.

8:03am • #18
123,720 Points 1 Featured Post

"80% of first time home buyers are using the Internet."

This is no surprise to many of us on ActiveRain. That is the new. That is good.

The other good news is that buyers are getting back to the basics. Saving money for a down payment, getting fixed rate mortgages, etc.

It's amazing how more things change, the more they stay the same.......screeecccchh! (insert slamming on the keyboard breaks here) Except for the part about 8 out of 10 people now looking for a home are looking online.

Do you sometimes wonder what the agents you know are thinking when they tell you that they've tried blogging and they think it's a waste of time etc etc?? Let them continue to think like that as you slowly and steadily pull away from them on any kind of search engine placement.

8:04am • #19
156,066 Points

Great information.  We've all suspected that the housing market recovery would start with the "first time buyers" and their desire to "cash in" on the current Tax Credit incentives.  Your data substantiates that fact.

8:18am • #20
285,140 Points 11 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

Allison,

This is just loaded with information that completely fits with the trends I have seen....I am going to print this one out!

9:06am • #21
1 Featured Post

Grat post. Confirms a lot of the information I have been hearing from NAR and anecdotally. Those first time homebuyers are making it possible for trade up buyers. We just need better employment numbers - then we will know it's up from here.

9:56am • #22
1 Featured Post

I have a question about the definition of First Time Buyer.  It is now someone that hasn't owned in past 3 yrs. I don't remember that being the definition in 1991 or prior market downturns.  Does anyone remember if the legal definition back then was 3 yrs since ownership? 
That may explain the average age of the 'first time'. 

12:30pm • #23
1 Featured Post Called Shot Master

Thank you - this is one of the best topics for a blog I've seen in a while. Thanks for the update.

Anecdotally I am working on several short sales where the buyers were told that since bank approval has not yet been received they were almost definitely going to miss the deadline for the credit should it NOT have been extended. I spent my whole week on the phone the week before the credit extension negotiating these. ALL of them agreed to remain in the transaction and continue waiting, credit or no credit. Perhaps the NAR Home buyer survey next year will ask buyers about whether or not they would have bought had there not been a credit. It will still only be theoretical but I think it is worth asking.

In our area the "average" price is closer to $400k and the $500k homes which have been very slow seem to have a substantial increase in showings lately. Let's see if it translates to real transactions.

The research on number of buyers who had at least one deal fall apart is interesting too.

Thanks for bringing this to our attention!!

12:45pm • #24

Those are very interesting stats.

 

Thakns for the info~

1:10pm • #25
429,318 Points 57 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Called Shot Master

Re: Average Age Question

It appears the many young professionals are waiting after they graduate college or in some  cases graduate school which would put them in the 30 year bracket.  Also given that more are putting down payment money down this too takes time to accumulate. 

1:19pm • #26
Localism Sponsor

It truely is hard for FSBO these days to sell their home.  Not only that, most dont hav the knowledge to do so on their own, which could lead to bigger mistakes down the road.  I make most of my business from FSBO's, I show them the pro and cons of doing it on your own.  Its hard work and takes time and money, most of which dont have that time or money.  Good stats thanks.

3:02pm • #27
429,318 Points 57 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Called Shot Master

LENN- Nope to what?

5:14pm • #29
1,062,392 Points 156 Featured Posts Outside Blog Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

Allison, saving for the down payment truly shows we have come full circle again.

8:01pm • #31
677,325 Points 5 Featured Posts Outside Blog Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

Great Blog, Allison. Reblogged and loved the stats I had not seen before! Thanks!

9:04pm • #32
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I believe the government is operating as any other "business" when it comes to incentives.  Businesses rely on a % of people to end up NOT fulfilling the requirements of the incentive (length of ownership in this case, and homeowners having to pay the credit back).  Ouch!  While it stimulates the market now and there is concern of future market lags as a long term result, I don't agree or believe it will hurt future markets because peoples' lives change and some will get restless causing the need or desire to change.  Most won't even care if they have to pay it back.  Take advantage of the business that comes your way because of the tax credit and sock some of it away just in case!

10:13pm • #33
546,166 Points 11 Featured Posts

Hi Allison -- I was relieved to hear the "...10 years" as far as living in a home, as real estate should be viewed as a long-term investment, not a short-term stock to play with.

10:58pm • #34
NOV
19
2009
429,318 Points 57 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Called Shot Master

Thank you to everyone who took the time to read the post, and leave a comment, also to those of you who reblogged this post. Thank you AR moderator for the Gold Star- much appreciated.

 It was interesting to read in some of the comments how certain markets are substantially different from others in terms of price range and activity level within those ranges.

Check back please for Part Two- which sheds interesting light on what impact your marketing money has and where it is most effective.

 

 

 

2:12am • #35
105,233 Points 12 Featured Posts

For future business and personal planning, I would suggest studying up on the economic influences of demographics by age over sales statistics that already happened partially influenced from short term subsidies.

Demographics by age certainly explains a lot with all of the changes currently taking place...

The economy, health care, real estate, etc.. etc..

5:34am • #36
Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Attended Rain Camp

Great statistics and very informative. In the "old days" contracts almost never fell-through...but I am not surprised to see that that number is now at 13%. 

8:27am • #37

A lot of great stats and info.  Interesting how history repeats itself.  Let's hope we can learn from our mistakes next time. 

8:39am • #38
255,776 Points 3 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Awesome info! I especially like the part about 85% of Successful Home Sellers used a Real Estate Professional. Sellers surveyed want agents to price their homes competitively(then please take our advice), find a buyer, market the property and sell within a specific time frame.     

8:39am • #39

Great post Allison!  This post is my first ever re-blog.  These numbers and behavior patterns really match up with what is going on in my area.  Thank you for sharing!

8:44am • #40

Another important aspect of the bottom up recovery involves recognizing how many of those first time buyer were not born in the US.  People who have come to the US, worked hard to establish themselves, find success and then purchase a permanent with a down payment of 20% or more.  So many of these folks, certainly most of those I have worked with, then plan to live in the house for a long time and set a goal of owning their home free and clear as soon as they can. 

When I think back, that's the same idea my grandparents had when they came to the US from Russia in 1909.

8:48am • #41

Amazing how economic downfall levels the playing field isn't it?  These are buyers previously outpriced in the market and who are wise to take advantage of high inventory, low prices and interest rates.  Staying in a home for 5 to 10 years is a better economic plan than the recent pattern of immediate resale to turn a profit. 

8:50am • #42
242,610 Points 17 Featured Posts

Great content. This post was packed with useful information. We've seen the bottom of the market recovering in the wine country, but I had not idea that we were repeating the results from 1991. Thanks for posting.

8:56am • #43

In prior pull backs recoveries have always started at the bottom. Those sellers moved out and up. The story is a little different this time around. Many of the sellers are already gone or do not have the means to move up. Many of the buyers are investors. I see the market recovering, but I think it's going to be slow at the upper end.

9:13am • #44
105,012 Points 2 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Wonderful, informative post. Packed with great information to "know"

9:26am • #45
105,012 Points 2 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Wonderful, informative post. Packed with great information to "know"

9:27am • #46
396,420 Points 30 Featured Posts Outside Blog Called Shot Master

Allison, this is great info. I'm going to re-blog this.  Thanks.

9:42am • #47
Outside Blog Attended Rain Camp

Great blog.  Great information.  I thought the VA number would have been higher.  Also, here in Hawaii, I have not experienced anyone saying they wanted to buy because of the tax credit. They look at more as a "bonus."

Aloha!

Karla Casey, Principal Broker

9:50am • #48
115,577 Points 1 Featured Post Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

Great post.  Having some historical reference for where we are and what to expect is very useful.  That recovers start at the bottom is something good to note.  We've seen excellent activity in the lower end in San Francisco.  Lower end is still high end for most others outside of San Francisco.  And it does seem to be trickling up.

10:05am • #49

Thank you for the informative post. Bottom up appears to be what's going on out there. The tax credit has definitely been a help to many however Obama's statement about concerns over a "double-dip recession" can't make us all feel to good. Time will tell. Thanks for the stats.

10:16am • #50
Outside Blog

good job on the blog short but some good points and some good info

10:52am • #51
105,200 Points 2 Featured Posts

Hi Allison,

Thank's for all of the delicious hard data, some very interesting stuff there.

10:55am • #52
Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

Alllison, thanks for the great overview.  Very useful for me and my clients!  I will use this for my 2010 marketing plan!

11:13am • #53
121,748 Points 1 Featured Post Attended Rain Camp

I really like the way you presented the story. Thanks

11:18am • #54
110,985 Points 1 Featured Post Attended Rain Camp

Allison,

I would have to agree that the extension of the tax credit and the inclusion of existing homeowners receiving a credit will create more activity which we sorely need.  I wonder what the landscape is going to look like beyond next April?

11:18am • #55
811,010 Points 7 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Called Shot Master

Good information.  Too many first time buyers are being squeezed out in this area by investors.  We have a very limited inventory.

11:23am • #56

Real numbers! Thank-you Allison.

"And a staggering 80% of first time home buyers are using the Internet."

YES it's up from 75% just a couple years ago, and that's where I come in

www.MorSystems.com

11:53am • #58
Outside Blog

Thanks, Allison, interesting information.

Boulder City Steve

12:44pm • #59

Wow that is a lot of statistical numbers.

When the prices are down so low many FSBO drop out of the market.  It is not just the high inventory that they are fighting, it's the inability to price as low.

12:53pm • #60

Great article, you showed some real concrete numbers. I wish I had some solid numbers to back up this disagreement with Paul Bishop: "free existing owners to make a trade" The problem I see is that there are far fewer existing owners that have sold with so much REO`s, shorts and foreclosures glutting the market... that is were the first time buyers bought, in vacant homes without a move up seller. I hope with the additional tax credit (6500$) we can see stronger movement in the $500k-$2mm range and get this housing market stabilized.

1:26pm • #61
482,170 Points 1 Featured Post Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

Hi Allison, Thanks for an excellent review of the market.  Interesting stats on cash buyers, fsbo's and full service offices.

2:07pm • #62
220,779 Points 4 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

Fascinating information on this market segment.  Sonoma is home to much older folks....many retirees....not so many first time buyers.  Our market is pretty slow right now and your stats explain why.

Thanks for the good work.

2:48pm • #63
112,414 Points 2 Featured Posts Attended Rain Camp

Glad to see that most used a full service broker. With all the hidden cost Realtors have I do not see how they afford to stay in business. Realtors like any other business that provides a service or a product must make a profit to stay in business and provide for there family.

5:30pm • #64
429,318 Points 57 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor Outside Blog Called Shot Master

WOW this was re-blogged 12 times.  THANK YOU.

If we better understand who is buying, how they are buying, we can market to them more precisely.

5:46pm • #65
1,004,647 Points 36 Featured Posts Outside Blog Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

It's amazing to me how many FHA loans are currently happening.  For years, the limits were so low, that almost nobody used them.

6:11pm • #66
680,489 Points 129 Featured Posts Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

FHA has been a great thing for our market...trickly up in housing, trickle down with tax breaks and we'd be set.

6:15pm • #67
122,575 Points 3 Featured Posts

I agree completely that we are experiencing a bottom up recovery.  But I think we are going to see more hits to the high end market before it's all over.

7:31pm • #68
133,539 Points 2 Featured Posts Outside Blog Attended Rain Camp

It is always good to have numbers in your head when you are talking to prospective clients in case you need to refer to them.

7:34pm • #69
116,015 Points 3 Featured Posts

Alison,

Good points and good insight.   I believed the tax credit was right in targeting first time home buyers who would help eliminate the built up inventory.   The Internet is the way to go to reach today's buyers.

9:34pm • #70

Allison, it seems to be a good thing that buyers are actually coming up with down payments. Unfortunately, lending is very stringent now as a result of the 0% down payments of recent years. FSBOs seem particularly hard to sell in rural or semi-rural areas where few people can easily see the property as they drive around.

9:35pm • #71
4 Featured Posts Outside Blog Attended Rain Camp Called Shot Master

The data in this post is very interesting. Thank you for stating it in an easy to understand manner.

10:05pm • #72
124,162 Points

Absolutely this is the way the market corrects.  In Denver, CO the lower price inventory is going like hotcakes and prices are rising.

11:41pm • #73
NOV
20
2009
328,348 Points 4 Featured Posts

Allison

It all looks promising for 2010 and for those who market well

Ty

7:51am • #74
NOV
22
2009
Outside Blog

Prices are at a all time low and interest rates are low, economy is uncertain making housing one of the safest havens, that is an easy package for professional Realtors to sell to buyers tired of the restless renters living accommodations. Realtors could of turned the housing market around without the interference of the government with a feel good give away taxpayer money for asking plan.

I am glad you gave me an opportunity to answer, good post.

Thank You

8:14pm • #75
Outside Blog

Prices are at a all time low and interest rates are low, economy is uncertain making housing one of the safest havens, that is an easy package for professional Realtors to sell to buyers tired of the restless renters living accommodations. Realtors could of turned the housing market around without the interference of the government with a feel good give away taxpayer money for asking plan.

I am glad you gave me an opportunity to answer, good post.

Thank You

8:14pm • #76

This blog does not allow anonymous comments

 
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Allison Stewart St Cloud Fl Realtor Osceola County Real Estate 407-616-9904

Saint Cloud, FL

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St.Cloud Homes & Land, LLC

Address: Osceola CountyRealtor Real Estate Agent, Kissimmee/St.Cloud Real Estate Osceola County Real Estate , St.Cloud Homes & Land , St. Cloud, Fl, 34771

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