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The NAR Predicts Sunshine and Lollipops

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I just returned from the National Association of Realtors convention in San Diego. NAR's chief economist Lawrence Yun spoke to a room packed with REALTORS® and projected that real estate prices would climb about 4% in 2010, while the number of home sales will increase 15%. He also predicts that foreclosures will peak during the first half of 2010 and that Realtor incomes will go up 20 percent next year.

I'm an optimist. Sometimes I even show Pollyanna tendencies, but I just can't join the partying that is breaking out in real estate offices across the nation based on his predictions.

In newspapers and blogs, the mockery has already begun. Take this typical response to Yun's predictions from The Wallet Pop blog: "The good news: National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun is predicting that home prices will rise 4% in 2010. The bad news: Lawrence Yun has never been right about anything in his entire life, ever."

A comment on Yun's prediction on the FreeRepublic website by the Antiyuppie was simply "This guy (Yun) was hired because Baghdad Bob had already been snagged By Al-Jazeira. Really."

The Wall Street Journal's Market Watch reported Yun's predictions and has received 200 comments. The most popular comment as voted on by readers was by Economutt, "Gee, I better run out and buy a house before they're all gone. ;-)"

How many times does an economist have to be wrong before people stop taking him seriously? Why do NAR economists as well as real estate association executives feel the need to serve as cheerleaders?

Wouldn't a good dose of reality serve us, as well as the public, better?

Linda Davis has been selling real estate in Ledyard CT for 32 years. You'll find Linda's profile on her Online Buesiness Card.

Old Time Rainers keep asking if I'll ever do another Carnac Post. I'm trying to muster up some predictions for 2010.

Posted by Linda Davis on 11/19/2009 11:30 AM

Comments (242)

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242 Comments on The NAR Predicts Sunshine and Lollipops

NOV

2009

Great cartoon photo! I Love It.... but would love Carnac's predictions for 2010 even better!!!!

I'm from Missouri.....I've got to see it to believe it. It's a hopeful possibility to think the economy will be better in 2010. Hope you had a great time at the convention.

NOV

2009

Wow, this is strange he would say that?

Based on what? To encourage us? To encourage the consumers?

Well I "wish" it would happen, 4% in my market would be amazing.

Heck I'll even take a plateau and not a downward spiral.

Wow, this is amazing. This guy makes not only himself, but the us look bad as well (because he represents us in a way). It would be great if he is right, but based on what we're see right now in our area, it would really take a huge economic turn around. And that ain't happening!

C'mon Linda, give us some Carnac! I miss those posts!

In our market we are already seeing signs of this. Less listings now because more are going under contract. Let's keep it going!

It would have been better if he just said real estate will be stabilizing. Economists are usually never right.

I think when people say things like that, they should mention that it's not going to hit ALL cities and states. My area is seeing biddding wars and if that keeps going, then he is right but only about areas like mine. Seems like it's to get the buyers in a frenzy.

The very worst PR move the NAR has made is to paint an unrealistically rosy picture. Buyers hate it because they feel they are getting mislead and I hate it because it makes us seem inauthentic as a trade group.

Lawrence Yun replaced David Lereah. As The Who sang in "Won't get fooled again", meet the new boss same as the old boss.

Interesting post. Thanks for sharing.

I am going to have to remain in wait and see mode. I don't even get excited about accepted offers. Over the past year too many deals have fallen through. Let's hope for the best and be ready to take advantage of a better market when it comes.

I want some sunshine and lollipops and while we have a record number of buyers our distressed situation is going nowhere soon so if I were NAR's economist I wouldn't be sticking my neck on the chopping block and making any predictions (although I guess that is his job.) The distressed market situation is too volatile in too many areas to be doing that.

There are many conflicting views out there today. Economists are rarely right. I don't know about specifics but I would say that things will be improving. There's lot of conflicting views and data such as shortage of inventory, shadow inventory from foreclosures on banks books, growing population and pent up demand, etc...

Real estate is always local. Where your market is located is more important. Having said that media has an affect and they are picking up on comments by the NAR.

Too many false prophets around. I mean, economists may "predict" that things will get better, but that does not mean that they will get better. For the consumer's sake, it is better to tell them the truth...which in many cases is simply, I don't know.

I would like to see someone do a serious analysis that breaks down the market into specific segments for analysis. There is a great report that was done by a Deutsche Bank analyst that is in my blog if anyone is interested. It breaks the market down by MSA.

Linda, I too am an optimist but unless somebody has a crystal ball (and I can't find one that works) none of us can accurately predict what will happen next. However, I certainly hope Yun is right. Perhaps he would have served himself and us better if his comments predictions had been couched in a little more "wait and see".

I believe this is nothing more than optimism. I cannot see the prices rising 4%, I do see some leveling out, but not until Spring.

With so much doom and gloom, I respect the man for trying to bring some positive thinking...due to the current economic woes, it is soething alot of us have forgotten.

Before I take anyone's predictions seriously, I take a look at how well their previous predictions came out. I did a post about Yun's predictions that he made a year ago and he was way off. I do think he is much like Baghdad Bob.

Like Jackie said in comment #7, he should have said in some areas. Here in Waco Texas, this month we had almost a balanced market with 6+ months of inventory, down from 7.8 last month. But this time of year the inventory usually goes up during Dec/Jan/Feb.

But there are some areas still with large inventories. I have been communicating with a couple from Florida who want to move back to Texas. They have had their Florida home for sale 3 years and lowered the price over $30K and still can't sell it. Detroit auctioned of houses last week for $500 and couldn't sell them.

I don't care what kind of tax breaks, rosy press releases or what ever you offer. The public is not buying it. Housing will not get better until the economy gets better. And the economy will not get better until the millons of unemployed find jobs.

i live in southwest florida and i love lollipops.

we are one of the hardest hit areas. things are much, much better.

i'm an optimist by nature.

i believe things will continue to improve. i would be cautious and conservative with any predictions.

Sub-prime mess = in the rearview!

5/1 ARM reset mess = through the windshield!

http://activerain.com/blogsview/1334316/forecast-of-arm-resets

Can a person who reads this chart honestly say that forclosures will peak in 2010? That would be denying the 32% and 26% of all loan applications in 2005 and 2006 (respectively) being 5/1 ARMs!!!! And... look at the prime and alt-a resets.

Folks, it's going to be a rough ride up until 2012. Draw your battle plans now. As for NAR, please put the REAL back into REALTOR!!

ugh, I completely agree. let's be REALISTIC! making this type of overly optimistic prediction just makes him look like a fool and reflects poorly on the industry as a whole.

What do you expect from NAR? Sunshine and Puppies and blowing smoke up our ample bee-hinds is what NAR is all about.

Linda,

They are simply saying what they think people want to hear. Thankfully we know the truth. After all, we are the ones out there busting our humps trying to make a living in this market. We see the truth daily and we are the ones who deal with it, not them.

I learned long ago that you typically cannot trust the yes men in suits. We have to go with our gut because we know deep down that is the truth.

Will things get better? Yes, eventually but like most things it will take time. Once consumers regain that confidence in the overall economy, then I think we will start to see an upswing in many different areas across the board. At some point the economy will have to learn to survive without the various crutches being thrown out there to supposedly stimulate the economy when really what they're doing is running up the national debt which will be felt for generations to come.

You wanted change America? You got it!

I agree Russell, how can artificially inflating something that was already artificially inflated help anything?

I like lollipops and I am optimistic...but I am also realistic and I intend to make REOs, Short Sales and Foreclosures part of my plan to get through the coming years. This is not going away anytime soon and the sooner that agents figure out how to make the market work FOR them, we will all be better off. Good post!

oh boy ... it's unbelievable that so many in public positions think that the public are naive and cant look up recent predictions - that were NOT so realistic !

Positive belief is one thing, artificial highly unrealistic predictions are just setting themselves up to be a laughing stock.

... oh boy ...

I used to work in an office where our BIC always insisted if someone asks us how the market is going...always say Great! Well, sometimes things aren't great. That doesn't mean we need to go in to a soapbox monologue for half an hour telling people how it "isn't what it used to be" and how it's soooo much tougher for people to get financing anymore, blah blah blah. But...let's not lie either. It is what it is...a tougher market and we just have to work harder (and harder and harder and harder LOL) and pick up on what may be new skill sets for us like Jeani mentioned: short sales, foreclosures, etc.

There's a thin line between being optimistic and positive and then trying to convince others of something we aren't entirely convinced of ourselves...I don't think Mr. Yun did us any favors with that speech of his.

As anyone in real estate knows, the markets are very localized. For Lawrence Yun to make a bold, general sweeping prediction like that is a bit irresponsible. In our market here in Phoenix we very well may see that 4% increase in price and 15% increase in units sold. And hopefully I'll see MORE than a 20% increase in income. But we were one of the first areas to experience the downward spiral. And prices have already declined by at least 50%, if not 70% in some areas in the valley. So one can't imagine them slipping further. And we've already seen signs this year that our market is heading up ever so slightly. Many other markets still have a long way to go. I talk to many realtors across the country and from what I hear it sounds like some markets are where we were TWO years ago. So there's still a lot stuff that needs to be flushed out of the system nationwide. Good post and best of luck to you.

Good post. Nothing like a little grounded thinking. I will asy then when Mr. Yun spoke at the Williamson County Chamber of Commerce in 2008 the matarial made sense. It was historical rather than predictive.

I have been seeing some light at the end of the tunnel. I believe I will have to go along with his rosier picture.

Linda, economists are correct, except when they are not. Some local markets are showing improvement, as the old inventory sells off and sellers wait to put their houses back on the market. Also, if your market has tanked, a 4% increase may well be possible. If you earned very little, a 20% increase is also do-able. Hope your market is strong! I always enjoy your posts.

I am always nervous when someone speaks to a national group about what is going to happen in the Real Estate market. Remember, that Real Estate is a LOCAL business. So what happens in Florida will be differnet than what is going to happen in Detroit. Just take this with a grain of salt and pay attention to your local market

Linda...so true...why don't they actually travel to various areas before making such statements.A simple trip to individual States would show them the conditions that exist. For those in states where the prediction pans out--great for you; for the rest of us, Real Estate rate up ticks are tied to the general economic reality of our area.
Just as HGTV's "House Hunter's" & "Property Virgins" can be interesting-they are hardly realistic; so to are the general statements made by government & other heads of organizations. Truth would be refreshing.

Linda:

Economics speak and spin, after they have to say something to justify their existence and salary...They are doing the best they can given their circumstances in their lives. Like Jim said real estate is a local business, your market is your market and that is what you should focus on! all the best

Because we all see the market locally, I think we need to think antionally. Here in Neww England, we are already seeing a turn around and prices are on the way back up. Does anyone think 4% is a lot considering that tens of thousands of foreclosures had been keeping the average price down? With just a modest reduction in foreclosure sales, appreciation numbers are affected. Frankly, national numbers may be important, but the focus that counts to us as individuals is what's happening in our own markets.

Linda,

I compliment your willingness to "stand out" from the clueless masses. As you recall, NAR's economist in 06-07 made rosy predictions about the future of that "about to crash" market.

It raises, in my humble opinion, a bigger question: Does a "professional" trade association want to be viewed as a provider of accurate industry research, analysis and projections about reality, or do they just want to function as a PR / advertising agency that engages in "misleading for profit?" When their economists provide baloney to the industry and to the public, does PHD behind their title mean "piled higher and deeper?" You know what I mean.

In a time where the public, investors, and lenders are more involved than ever in careful scrutiny of the markets, trends, and the next time bomb (spelled shadow inventory), NAR members may be losing more than they gain, and eliminating credibility by supporting a policy of lying to the public.

Thanks again for your well written commentary.

It's times like these that I am thankful that I am not a member of the NAR. I know my area is starting to plateau and will probably be flat, but I just can't see how nationally with the unemployment rate rising nationally, that those unemployment foreclosures won't keep things either down or flat, nationally.

I say this from a state with 11% unemployment for most of this year.

No wonder the previous "economist" quit, and then was (most likely) forced to recant his statement that he was pressured by NAR into providing optimistic forecasts.

There are 2 problems here:

a) the NAR loses an incredible amount of credibility and tarnishes realtors as a profession. Realtors are long viewed as being "only good news" empty smiley faces, that is the cliche, and the NAR just confirms the cliche

b) The "economist" tarnishes his profession and science as a whole. While I am not one to argue that economics is a hard science akin to biology, the problem of "buying outcomes" that started with the tobacco industry is evident here. This hurts science and scientific inquiry and research because the public now views nearly everything with skepticism.

In effect, we are being asked to just "poo poo" the NAR research because, well it comes from realtors.

The NAR does a complete disservice to its profession and professionals.

Those of you who are NOT members of NAR should hold your head high: keep your intellectual independence, the NAR does nothing to burnish the image of realtors.

Those numbers are unrealistic and every reasonable person knows it! I don't know why they keep hurting their credibility. Their predictions are certainly not helping the market.

Economists are like local weather forecasters, they only have to be right 50% of the time!

since when has NAR not been optimistic when things were falling apart it was still great

Linda

Clearly a touchy subject.....:) Seriously though, NAR has been consistently wrong greater than 80% of the time over the last 5-10 years. When we expect runaway growth, they predict higher. When we expect significant losses, they expect lower. Regardless of the prediction, they lack the depth of research and analytics regarding the individual markets, to be able to accurately forecast anything.

Those that cry real estate is local miss the point that while that statement is 100% true, our markets are very much interconnected in a myriad of ways, making real estate interdependent on many fronts.

If we all think positive, maybe? But I hear too many negatives from propsective buyers. Here's hoping!

Yun may have a PHD in BS. What do you think?

Those are great predictions! Lets just hope that they come true!

Linda - I have always envied economists, since they seem to retain their jobs no matter what they say, much like meteorologists.

It's always safe to predict sunshine in Colorado, not so sure about the lollipops. Depends on job outlook. ARM resets aren't all doom and gloom. I just had a loan reset that I took out in 2004, and my payment DROPPED $80 per month. So all those resets on that graph (#23), doesn't mean those are all foreclosures.

Linda...

I think Realtor incomes will rise but only because of the fact that those that have survived so far are the best agents!

Linda:

Great commentary. Sorry we missed each other at the convention. I was disappointed by the trade show and thought this year's convention lacked substance. Thank you for being honest.

Carnac...

I'm guilty of not reading the comment thread. I figure I'm safe anyway. No one can do me better than me :)

When you posed the question about NAR's Economist serving as cheerleaders, I just had to laugh out loud. We actually pay for the Rah Rah Sis Boom Bah :)

When it comes to NAR it always seems to get down to money and politics. Their job is to keep us paying to be part of an archaic system that seriously needs to be updated. The politics just piss me off. The who you blow or don't blow gets really old :)

Yeah. Yeah. I'm sure I've offended someone. I've been on a roll lately :)

TLW...ROAR!

I'm with TLW there. We pay someone to say good, positive things about the housing environment and to shove the sunshine at reporters, hoping someone will pick it up as a news story and publish it as the gospel truth.

Baa Baa, I think this is economist Yun in this video. But...baa, he does look a little baa worried at the end......

the little engine that could. - i think i can -song

Hi Linda, I got the impression from the RE/MAX "Demand Success" Series that these predictions have been overwhelmingly wrong.

Linda, the NAR has sunshine and lollipops as a prediction EVERY year!!! It is a PR firm, plain and simple.

Linda - I would love for what Lawrence says to be true, but I can't see how it is or will be. I wonder how much he gets paid to spew that spin - must be a lot. Who would want to be a public figure saying such ridiculous stuff?

Increases? It's possible. But....where? When? Why? Yun once again is trying to spin things to our advantage. The reality is some places will see an increase and some places will continue to plummet. Consult your local REALTOR(R) to get the real scoop for your area of interest.

That's my prediction.

Linda, I only wish he were correct. I don't foresee prices going up for awhile. Units, sure. Because of short sales & foreclosures, of which I expect another wave, prices, notsomuch. Yun's job is a lot like a weatherperson. What other job than those two can they be WRONG the MAJORITY of the time, and still get paid?!?!?!?!

I don't think I've seen this many comments on a post for a long time.

I believe in being honest with my clients, which for me means remaining positive with a good amount of realism thrown in. I have done some marketing research on ARMs that are going to reset and it looks like foreclosures and short sales are going to be huge for quite some time, 2013 was the last I heard, but who really knows? Yun hasn't impressed me with his predictions in the past. I think we can speculate the heck out of the upcoming market, but who really knows for sure.

I happen to be a big supporter of the NAR but I just can't past the cheerleading. Anyone in my area who bought during the 2007 "Now is the best time to buy a home" campaign has lost about 20% in value. It turned out to be a terrible time to buy a home.

Thanks for all the very interesting comments. I value your opinions!

People do not want this treacle ..

Now if they told us the truth any different would we be renewing our membership. Numbers are what the person wants them to be.

Yun's predections are like a stopped clock... If he says the same thing all of the time, he'll eventually be right for a minute.

Does this mean you're not going to allow me to trade in my ginsu knives for a lollipop? :)

TLW - No but you are eligible for 3 spatulas from spatula city.

yun has to speak positive. That is what he is paid for. He called the bottom a couple of years ago I believe. Was he just spinning back then.

I hate when people try to predict things, it's all a hoax if u ask me.

Like Lane said, a broken clock is right twice a day. I'm sure that somewhere in the US in 2010, the home prices will rise 4%, somewhere in the US, home sales will rise 15%, somewhere in the US foreclosures will peak, and somewhere in the US, Realtor income will rise 20%...exactly where nobody knows...

Hi Linda -- Since all real estate is local, I find that stats produced by NAR are completely meaningless at a local house level, as after all, one seller just wants one buyer. Focusing on price, condition, current demand, and making changings to one's property to effect a sale are what a seller should focus on and I think NAR would be wise to start promoting real solutions instead of meaningless statistics that they get wrong half the time.

I say this from Ohio, where we tend to lag national economic recoveries every single time. We are usually first into a recession (true this time, plus the added insult we were first in the sub-prime meltdown) and last out of the recession, but at least we no longer claim the top spot for foreclosures anymore. Top 5-7 states yes, but not #1.

NOV

2009

4% appreciation in 2010? Really?

Then perhaps it would be wise for many sellers to take their homes off the market for a few months and relist when they can get 4% more money.... just a thought.

Another thought... Yun must not be a member of NAR - isn't there something in the COE about being honest? ...just sayin'. LOL

Sunshine and lollipops? I've spent some time with the best of the spin masters and NAR is hiring way down on that ladder.

Follow the money. Yun is paid by NAR. NAR generates money by membership dues. Hence the cheerleading.

It seems that I remember they predicted that 2008 would be the worst, and the economy would come back in 2009. Now they're predicting 2010? By the end of next year they'll be predicting 2011! Yun and the NAR may be of the belief that "If we say it, it must be true, or will become true". And TLW, don't worry about offending any of us, you're just the bravest one to tell it like it is.

The NAR fluff jobs are EMBARRASSING.

I will second Everything TLW said!! When will we realize that NAR is just useless? all we need is our local MLS and not that before to long.

I would love to see it but think it is overly optimistic....

As a Canadian REALTOR just returning from NAR, let me say that our market is way better than that in the US and we are not evening predicting things to be that rosy for 2010!

Well, sooner or later, things will change. It's the one thing we can count on is that things will always change. But I have long had an issue with the sing songy happy wappy requirement in the real estate industry. I am an optimist, no doubt. But I am not deaf and blind. I try to be optimistic about reality, not lost in a optimist's fantasy. I was practically shizo from years of how it was always "a great day at Keller Williams!"

I find that if I can't see reality, I am unable to find it's silver lining. Whenever change is happening, thre is also opportunity. For real...

I agree, that the consumer would appreciate a little more reality and a lot less cheerleading. People need to trust us and that includes the information the NAR puts out.

I second everything TLW said. When will NAR stop trying to make themselves relevant and realize the real estate business is moveing to fast for them to keep up, they sit in their nice office in D.C. thinking we (the agent) don't have a clue as to how irrelevant they have become.

Great Post

A quick question...does anyone know how much we pay Lawrence Yun per year, or, for that matter how much we pay to any of the executives of NAR?

"Real estate value will appreciate by 4%." Well in my area we are still waiting for the DEPRECIATION to stop.

Believe NAR economic predictions at your own peril. Does anyone remember them ever offering anything other than self-serving messages meant to promote themselves and their members? Only problem is that they instead embarrass themselves and members.

I definitely can see prices rise more than 4% here but I think it is very specific to areas and that should absolutely be clarified. Of course I am always a wait and see, show the facts kinda gal but here in Temecula/Murrieta it has strong possiblities to meet or exceed that. But.... we also lost more value than most to begin with so I think that is also a factor that should be considered. Our values declined by a good 50%, that is a BIG percentage. We are definitely going up, we may stablized for a bit or even bob but not if we keep going in the same pattern that we have.

Great blog and you’re absolutely right!! A dose of reality and the ostrich syndrome to stop is want we all need. Sticking ones head in the sand and not really doing any research about what is really going on in the housing market is just ludicrous ant this point in time. I have been working in REO world for the last year and where is the shadow inventory that everyone has been clamoring about? Well hundreds of thousands of homes are behind the flood gates but the banks are holding on to the inventory. Why, well with the research I have done it appears that they would rather take the losses over several years instead of flooding the market again and dropping home prices. It gives us all that warm and fuzzy feeling again that things are OK but in reality the banks have learned how to control the market. Good or bad, I think it’s good we don’t need home prices to take another big hit. Is this the end, NO WAY, the loan modification programs are not working and we need to get people back to work. The banks are looking at actually doing a true “APPROVED SHORT SALE” and asset managers scrambling from one holding company to another at this time preparing for the changes coming. So is the market changing next year, yes it is, but you better be ready to work your behind off, get very educated in the short sale process and help those home owners out there that need our expertises. This information is backed by DSNEWS.com and you can subscribe to a daily news letter reporting all kinds of different data regarding the banks and housing markets. You just need to keep researching and you too will see it’s not the rosy picture that Yum is predicting but a much different market. Will you make a very good living next year and the next several years, yes the educated, well informed Realtors will do very well!!! Yum get your head out of the sand!!!!!!!!!!

This is a ridiculous prediction by Yun. I just blogged about our latest local market trends here in Phoenix, and I'm sure Yun has never been here. While the lowest-priced housing has strengthened, it's only because of the artificial market stimulation (tax credit). The middle and high end of our market is dead, as in 24+ months inventory for homes over $1M, and still a great buyer's market for anything over the FHA limit. The average appreciation in our market is today at -1.0%, with prices continuing lower. 4% price recovery in 2010? I don't think so except in the under $100k segment. And make note, many of the homes sold this year were also purchased by investors - a bit of a repeat when investors ran up prices a few years back. Thankfully, some of those investors are my clients. :-)

NAR lost it's credibility long ago with it's way to rosey predictions. I think you always have to take what they say for what it is: propoganda!

I agree with much of what Karen Liderman said above. If we as Realtors are fighting a public vision that we are dishonest or will do anything to make a sale then NAR making, ahem, very very positive predictions doesn't do us a service...

More importantly, information is KING. If we can provide the public with accurate information they can use and trust then we are doing a great thing, if they can't trust it then we lose credibility.

However, Karen's statement is a bit unfounded and a bit of info might help her here:

"Those of you who are NOT members of NAR should hold your head high: keep your intellectual independence, the NAR does nothing to burnish the image of realtors. Karen Liderman, Investor"

First, the only reason they are Realtors is because there is NAR, and only members of NAR are Realtors - everyone else is a real estate agent. So, the only reason there is an image is because there is a NAR.

They do benefit us in a lot of ways, but they are ways the public only sees by dealing with individuals so I can see why you wouldn't think they are useful... NAR requires us to abide by a code of ethics (this does help, trust me!). NAR provides us with a lot of education and helps make us aware of upcoming issues. They deal with and offer us technology, they provide a forum for sharing ideas and business tools across the country.

Tis embarrasing sometimes to be a REALTOR when our own organization makes comments. We had an ad going around in Texas from our state REALTOR association that stated that home prices are up since '05. How am I supposed to tell seller's the reality that their home value is down, not up?

"What do you expect from NAR? Sunshine and Puppies and blowing smoke up our ample bee-hinds is what NAR is all about" was posted in an earlier comment and TLW made the point. We pay for this crap! We have the power to fire....ALL OF NAR... or at the very least we have the power to cause some major changes (for the better). But we all sit her twiddling our thumbs complaining about how sucky this guy is. I vote we do away with NAR and "fix" the mess they're making with our industry...any takers?

Thank goodness I am not the only one who feels this way. I don't think we will be climbing up until 2011. We still have high amounts of inventory in my area and declining values. Until more homes start closing, the inventory keeps growing larger every day.

I often wonder if the NAR economists, and the CAR economists just keep making up these predictions in hopes that one day they will be right.

I remember when I started nearly 5 years ago all of the rah-rah from NAR. Find me a serious example of Mr. Yun being correct in any of his projections over those 5 years. A dime store psychic could get it right more often. What I find amazing and at the same time disappointing is that he is still on the our/NAR payroll. He is easily the most quoted individual in NAR. Maybe early retirement is in order for the sake of NAR credibility. Nah, never happen.

I was in the General meeting when Lawrence spoke also. I was "tuned out" because I knew he was going to be predicting better times ahead.

I am in Florida and better times are not going to be ahead until we lower our unemployment. If you don't have a job you won't be buying a home. We are also seeing a new surge of foreclosures hitting in January. I know they say it is area specific but with high unemployment across the country please don't let our Association sound unprofessional by stating we are out of the woods.

I am having enough problems with my sellers wanting to price there home too high for the current appraisal values. It does not help to under cut their own members by these too general statements.

our man Yun is just the latest in the unbroken chain of bought and paid for hacks that peddle the goods that the NAR tells them need peddling. that he does it above our signature as realtors is the embarrassing thing. they have a rich history of not letting the facts confuse them.

i am energized by the tone of the remarks here and am glad so see words like embarrass, irrelevant, treacle, and my favorite from cindy, #45..."a PhD in BS"...INDEED.

no one with a reading list longer than USA Today gives the NAR pap any credence.

Unfortunately, in times of anxiety or rapid change, fortune tellers tend to thrive.

Sadly both NAR political leadership and its economic team are so entrenched inside the Washington DC beltway, they have lost touch with the new landscape of real estate and the economic reality of our times. Those numbers sound more like a membership campaign drive for NAR to keep attracting new people into the profession and keeping us in the fold than an honest assessment of the real estate market today.

Those of in the trenches everyday, let's show NAR we can do better and we as individual real estate professionals (aka Realtors) in our community are the BEST resource of information, know-how and solutions.

Yes, it is time for change and it begins with our efforts to tell NAR now is the time to listen and learn from its members and to begin to deal with its own internal organizational anxiety by stopping the nonsense of fortune telling.

Sooner or later he will be right !!! The question is. Will we still be alive?

yun if the face of reality of over 10.2% unemployment and record high defaults due to lack of paychecks. yeah alice in wonder land. as the jeferson air plane song says "some pills make you small and small pills make you tall" . yes with $8,000 and $6,500 tax credits and 1.25 trillion support from federal resreve and record price drops people have entered the market. yet once that support is removed, you better being working real hard or else it's real hungry time. if you look at the builders new home contuction, except for this economic event, has fallen beyond when record were first keep 50 years ago. sooooooooo give the kool aid and pass the bong and lets all go to la la land.

I guess it's the build it and they will come mentality. Say it and it will come true. I wasn't at NAR so thanks for the heads up on Mr. Yun.

The graphic describes it perfectly. While things are starting to turn around and 4% increase would be amazing I am cautiously optimistic. I say the things will get better in 2010 but definitely not to the degree that Yun predicts. I guess we could all use a little hope, just wish that the hope was more realistic so I could jump on board.

Interesting comments considering this is the same guy that said the first time home buyer's tax credit should be continued and expanded as this would help the "nation's" economy. Now we are scrutinizing his latest comments with a level headed thoughtful look at reality.

Where was all this concern for “credibility” when the tax credit was being discussed? Reality? The reality is that "stabilize" is a code word for keeping housing prices up. The market will eventually drop where it is going to no matter what anyone does to try and stabilize it. Supply and demand, jobs and salaries will play the major role and so far the only thing the NAR and government have pushed for is a slow down in the process. Why? Admittedly, the credit has created some sales. Also admittedly, these homes sold for 4 to 8% higher than they will sell for next year using all states numbers. So the only economy that was helped really was the REALTORS’® and that economy help is being paid for by tax payers that for the most part, have been responsible and will see no direct benefit to the action. On the contrary, they are being penalized for the poor behavior of others. This will continue to be paid for by this generation of taxpayers and the next and even the next. Credibility??

Here’s a thought. Leave the market alone. Yes prices will drop and as I said earlier, they will drop anyway, even with artificial stimulus like the tax credits. The further prices drop the more affordable housing will be to more and more people. The more affordable, the more houses will sell. The more houses sell the more lawn mowers, carpet, appliances, window coverings etc will sell and pretty soon we are back in the black.

By the way, The economist is here for one reason; to give credibility to fortune tellers.

Hercel Spears

Advanced Realty Education

RE/MAX Alliance Group, LLC

www.HERCEL.com

Glad to see NAR predicting a recovery this year, since they are usually wrong it kind-of confirms what I have been thinking for the past six months, “long tough road ahead”. I was in San Diego the day NAR started. I wouldn't take the time to stay for the "party". I have only been in real estate a few years so maybe NAR used to be an asset but I cannot see it now. Even the term "REALTOR"? My marketing person (not an agent) just convinced me to pull the term REALTOR out of our collateral because she sees too many people out there thinking of it as a derogatory term. I wouldn’t even pay the fees except that they have a chokehold in our market. An agent is effectively are shut out of practicing real estate in our area unless they pay the fees. It is sort-of like protection money but without the protection.

Let me see if I have this right. Home prices are going to increase 4% even though 1. Unemployment is at record highs (almost 15% here in California) and is projected to increase for at least a year. 2. All the resets of the 5/1 ARMs (real problem isn't the reset because interest rates are significantly lower than when most people took them out. It's the reset PLUS going from interest only to an amortized payment that will hit the hardest. 3. Record number of homes at least 90 days delinquent which signals an even bigger wave of foreclosures. Banks will take care of this one by doling out foreclosures with an eyedropper which will artificially inflate values. and so on and so on... Give Yun a break, he was in San Diego, the weather was perfect and close to 80 degrees, his rose colored glasses were obviously working perfectly.

We already have the Sunshine here in Florida, a few lollipops would be nice. I agree with Pat and Wayne "somewhere" in the US he will be 100% correct.

I can see that here in Las Vegas. People probably think I am full of it though! I pulled up our inventory and we have less than 8000 homes active (not in contract). Only 3900 of these are not short sales. That is not a lot of homes for buyers to choose from. One of my team members had a buyer submit on a home that had 52 offers! It is supply and demand. We supposedly have a shadow inventory and unless that is released, we could see some recovery. I already have 2 clients buying new homes because it is less frustration and relatively close in price. We were one of the first to fall, hopefully one of the first to rise! At least that's what me a Spongebob came up with this morning. I love that guy!

Ah yes sunshine an lollipops from the NAR, the people that tell consumers that it is a great time to buy real estate. Maybe the prediction is true for some part of the US. It is possible that sales will go up here at least compared to 2009 and it is possible that prices will go up a tad they already have . . but real estate is local and the folks I work with mostly only care about the twin cities metro area . . or when you get down to it home owners only care about their own neighborhood.

A prediction is just that! Maybe he's being positive - which I do appreciate. I'd much rather hear positive than negative predictions. That said, I know it is a prediction, nothing more or less. As for me, I predict good things for 2010 in Mesa, Arizona.

Unemployment won't correct until new construction comes back around. New construction won't come back until trade-up buyers can get their homes sold, freeing them to build. Trade-up buyers can't get their homes sold unless first-time buyers buy from them. First-time buyers won't buy from them as long as there are cheap foreclosures. The first-time buyer tax credit should have been limited to those who purchased an owner-occupied property ONLY, to stimulate the trade-up cycle, new construction and jobs. We should have pushed for the credit to be structured so that if they want a discounted price, they buy a foreclosure. If they want the cash, they buy from a person. We missed the boat big time.

Well, they don't call him Sunny Yunny for nothing, and I can't remember any of his predictions being correct, yet NAR keeps and reveres this misleading pundit, who has single handedly made our profession look less professional.

While we all HOPE his predictions will come true, we realtors, and more importantly the consumers would be much better served if NAR faced reality and hired an economist who has better grasp of the overall economic picture. But more importantly, NAR must empower Yun's replacement to TELL THE TRUTH.

It seems that some of you out there have removed the rose colored glasses you received upon becoming realtors. While I don't agree with any of the predictions, I do believe that the media has been trying to put a more positive spin on the economy and it may be helping.

Good for you, Linda. It's about time that someone in the real estate community blast NAR for its unrealistic outlooks. I'm pleased to see ActiveRain members joining the chorus of those who want to deal with facts rather than propaganda. I nominate Chris Brunner to be come the chief NAR economist!

NAR cannot be serious....Each and every day it is something new with pending sales, newcon permits, foreclosures, etc.....Nobody has a clue.

Linda, very interesting post. These predictions seem unrealistic. It is very unlikely that home prices will go up, particularly when we take into account that there are millions of foreclosed properties expected to hit the market next year.

We'll see...but remember that real estate is an emotion driven industry, like the National poll which measures consumer confidence. We have certainly seen this increase in price and activity here, so we'll see. I do think the Coasts see these types of recoveries first.

It seems very puzzling to me that Mr. Yun is so optimistic . Considering the local and national economic situation, what is it that is creating the demand for housing? Consumer confidence is not exactly at its highest levels now. I would love to believe his theory... but I will not be sharing this information with my clients...I just might sound like a used car saleswoman . LOL

I don't know about you but as a Realtor I continue to get mixed signals on all of this stuff coming out of NAR. On one hand Yun makes all these optimistic prognostications while his own publication continues to manafest stories like the ones below:

Daily Real Estate News | November 20, 2009 | Share Delinquent Mortgages Reach Record Levels
Almost 10 percent of all mortgages on one- to four-unit properties are in some stage of foreclosure, up from 2.65 percent a year ago on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's National Delinquency Survey released Thursday.

The combined percentage of loans in foreclosure or at least one payment past due was 14.41 percent on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the highest ever recorded in an MBA delinquency survey.

The bankers blamed the high foreclosure levels on unemployment. "Over the last year, we have seen the ranks of the unemployed increase by about 5.5 million people, increasing the number of seriously delinquent loans by almost 2 million loans and increasing the rate of new foreclosures from 1.07 percent to 1.42 percent," says Jay Brinkmann, MBA's chief economist.

Brinkmann points out that prime fixed-rate loans represent the largest share of foreclosures and are the biggest driver of the increase in foreclosures.

Home builders and housing analysts mostly shrugged at the high foreclosure-rate information.

"My prediction is we'll probably recover on a seasonal basis," Robert Toll, chairman and CEO of Toll Brothers, the largest builder of luxury houses, said yesterday at a conference in New York sponsored by Citigroup Inc. "It's generally accepted that the homebuilding industry is off the mat and on the road to recovery."

Josh Levin, a housing analyst at Citigroup Global Markets Inc. in New York, said he expects sales to continue to be slow until January or early February, followed by a surge as buyers try to beat the April 30 expiration of the tax credit.

"The bouncing along the bottom is distorted by government policies," he said in an interview with Bloomberg News yesterday.

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association (11/19/2009) and Bloomberg, Kathleen M. Howley and John Gittelsohn (11/20/2009)

Daily Real Estate News | November 19, 2009 | Share Increasing Volume of Foreclosures in Pipeline
An additional seven million properties are headed for foreclosure, according to a study in September by Amherst Securities Group.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com, concurs with high estimates of potential foreclosures, anticipating 2.4 million homes in foreclosure in 2010, compared with 2 million in 2009.

Experts say the onslaught is the result of moratoriums lifting, banks overwhelmed by the demand for modifications, and the sheer volume of late payers. Banks also are trying to spread asset write-downs over several reporting periods to maintain a better profit picture.

Bottom line? I really don't think anyone has a crystal ball in today's RE environment. Thanks Linda you've just given me the fodder and inspiration for my next post.

Mr. Yun's prediction will be accurate somewhere and wrong in most places. Bottom line: he's a typical trade association economist who will claim he was correct by validating his forecast with statistics from somewhere while other economists will "prove" he was wrong with their own statistics. Ever heard of the book "Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics?"

Linda, awesome blog! I am re-blogging it right now... They should have let mr. Yun go a long time ago, but then, who's gonna sell the sunshine???

Lolipops and sunshine? I'm confused. . . is this and uptick or downtick from: rainbows and puppies ?

Certain areas here are most certainly are doing better. We have zip codes and segments that are posting 5% gains over our all time peak pricing of 2005, but iventory/volume is way down and so absorption/price is way up. Of course one follows the other. We have other zips in the same city that are still below the basement, as a function of distressed sales and higher inventory.

I suspect that the country as a whole is very similar to this example, being that - modest gains in select categories don't balance the ledger or act as leading indicators for the health of the national market overall. Housing does not exist in a vacuum, nor in a computer model. So . . .

"Mr. Yun. Please zip your pants. . . . .I know it's not raining, so cut it out."

I'm waiting for Carnac....carnac...carnac.... :)

Actually, this will probably be true in some areas, but like mentioned earlier real estate is local and this broad generalization will almost positively (trying to remain optimistic) come up short. However, I think he could very well be right that our incomes will go up 20%. I'm hearing of a lot of agents again turning in their licenses. There's work out there for those of us who want it. Sure, I've had to adjust and shift from listings to buyers, but I'm not participating in the recession. :)

I agree with the majority of comments and especially that Yun's comments are a PR campaign at its lowest level.

This is a trend these days...a rosy picture...they say our economy is picking up, jobs are picking up, foreclosures are down, real estate is up....I think they all must read the same comic book. How about reality. The uptick was the short sales and 1st time buyer. Short sales are getting worse and there are only so many 1st time buyers. Shadow inventory estimated at 7 million is now reported at 20 million. the number of people behind on their loans is increased and they just haven't been foreclosing. I have clients who have not made a payment in over 2 years, have been served their default notice and thats the end of it. I'm in south Florida where we have a 24% delinquency rate and it is still going up. Until we turn unemployment around nothing will change for the better. Heres a new concept...no income = no pay bills. Duh! What can we do to help...we can't change the employment woes, but we can get really good at doing short sales and save what little dignity the homeowners have left!

FYI, Mr. Yun is the new guy...last "economist" to carry water for the NAR was David Lereah who stated in JANUARY 2007: "It appears we have established a bottom."

Lereah was booted finally and in comes Yun. one of mr Lereahs books was titled "why the real estate boom will not bust". what a dope. for a bit of reading that will have you shaking your head go have a look at his wikipedia page. for a time he was with Move.com...the company behind Realtor.com? oh my! sample dialog, "geez, we hate to lose such a luminary...maybe we can find you a spot in the Realtor family of companies."

Linda,

BINGO! Credibility is lost when it is always a good time to buy and sell real estate.

The NAR should get out of the business making Kool-Aid predictions without all of the factors considered.... Tax credits, Fannie Mae getting in the landlord business, The Fed buying up Mortgage Backed Securities to keep rates low, etc..etc...

So... if it's all Sunshine, Rainbows and Lollipops... why the big push to extend/expand the $8,000 tax credit?

Zillow now has more credibility... especially after the NAR November 2007 $4 Million dollar advertising campaign where it was a great time to buy real estate!

As somebody above mentioned... it's just become a PR firm and consumers know it.

Personally... I think the reports coming out from the Mortgage Brokers Association are far more credible.

They say "Build it and they will come" This sound like the same philosophy the NAR is trying to promote. I'll believe it when I see it. I hope they are right.

Let's all say it at once... JOBS, JOBS, JOBS, JOBS.

If there is no job growth, there will be no real estate growth across the country. Certain areas have shown an increase in home buying, but until there is job creation.. the entire country as a whole will not show an increase in buying.

People cannot purchase homes if they are without a job... it's that simple.

With Yun as our real estate market weatherman, we should all advise carrying unbrellas at all times.

I am with Sally - Carnac, Carnac!!

This is exactly why NAR has virutally zero credibility. They are really nothing more than cheerleaders with their heads buried in the sand. I would love to see a legitimate, professional, national real estate organization that was based on truth, facts, and reality.

Oh, man this was funny~

Once again the out of touch with reality NAR making fools of themselves and embarrassing their membership, most of whom would not belong to the group were they not forced to by their local MLS offices.

Yun is the biggest joke ever. The NAR should be supremely embarrased at his completely wrong wild ass predictions. That fact that he still has a job tells you everything that you need to know about the NAR. All they care about is members paying dues. They want Yun to make the Kool-Aid and hope that as many ignorant Realtors as possible drink it often and deeply. The NAR hopes that this will lead to exsiting members staying in the business even though they should get out, and will suck new innocents in even though they should stay out. Any real estate professional who is worth their salt, should be questioning what value they receive from the NAR and should be concerned that the NAR creates a public perception amongst consumers that Realtors are not very smart and not very well versed about what is going on in the real estate markets. The NAR does a disservice to all real estate professionals.

Vito Boscaino

Managing Partner

North High Realty, LLC

Dublin, Ohio

http://www/Vito.ServingColumbus.com

More proof that you can't believe everything you read or hear! Ty

Ive been following NARs predictions since '04. They have never been right! Ever that i can remember.

Since I have some knowledge of the workings of whats going on at the lender level , etc etc, I predict that next year will be worse than the last 2 years. And I havent been wrong yet in 4 years. Hows that for odds?

Oh, and for those of you say" Activity is picking up here"...well of course it is. Bottom feeding, people pulling their money out of the market, investing for tax purposes...lets see what happens when values go down another 10-15% and there are fewer buyers, less mortgage money, more defaults and more inventory. Add into that commercial meltdown and higher unemployment. Yeah, keep wearin your sunglasses and suckin that loolipop....those of us who are prepared are still making money!

Hey Vito! Right on man! I cant believe people still pay dues to them...look into what they are trying to do with their lobbyists....they aint gettin any more of my money!

I really haven't had much of an opinion on Yun. Yet I've noticed many of our peers have had negative comments on him. I'm curious as to how INaccurate he really is? It's no doubt a rough job... but still if the guys WRONG as much as I hear...well, then maybe it's time to find someone who isn't. Of course were this Wall Street...he'd be getting a BONUS about now. No?

Jeff Burnham, Rosen & CO West, Las Vegas, NV

Hi Linda,

This was really a great blog. It was accurate, witty, well referenced, clear & concise. I whole heartedly agree that we would all be better served by a good dose of reality.

My thanks to Linda for sharing the spew. I am in agreement with Chris #23 and Russel #26. As Realtors we struggle through the mire of distrust regularly. I read a while back that we were rated just below lawyers and just above car salepersons as far as the trust of the public. The media has not helped us anymore than the bailouts are helping our economy. So, as REALtors we need more than ever to support our clients by being truthful and hardworking.

Because I am very much an optimist and my personal business this year in Tarrant County, TX. has begun to improve, I am high hopes of recovery.

Cautious but optimistic.

Vito,

If you think NAR is bad - here in California we have CAR...

If you research CAR predictions, you will see in 2006 they acknowledged there was a market slow down, but predicted market would recover in 2007. In 2007 they said they see a turnaround in 2008. In 2008 they said no one could have predicted that the banks could have caused this decline with their lending practices, but the market should flatten out in 2009 and prices will begin appreciating again in the middle of 2010.

And we're paying them to do this!!!

Sally, You are so right. Nobody knows anything substantive. If our predictions from 3-4 years are any indication, we should never make predictions again. In any case, predictions about the whole country, or even actual trends, are really not relevant to any of our local markets. All I am willing to share with clients here locally are the different trends in a specific neighborhood. I tell them anything else is too unpredictable.

I feel sorry for Lawrence Yun, the NAR chied PR talking head (economist). Since 2006 he has been paid to call the bottom of the market trying to drum up business for us Realtors. He has faithfully followed his job description for these past 3 plus years and he gets nothing but criticism.

Let's pick on someone else.

I can believe a possible 4% increase in prices (maybe, if everything goes perfectly) given low inventory, but everything else is well beyond wishful thinking. I'm no economist but a 20% increase in Realtor's salaries is flat out ridiculous. NAR's forecasts are consistently way too optimistic. In 2010, by comparison, the California Association of Realtors predicts a 3.3% rise in prices and a 2.3% decline in sales, that sounds a bit more realistic to me.

Lets be honest....that HAS TO BE the worst career move ever...being NARs chief economist. What happens with these guys after they 'retire' from NAR?

Well written post!

Tim

Has Yun really always been wrong? It isn't about the market but about the Realtor anyway. If the market turns or if there are new indicators it is up to the professionals to find ways to make it successful. There are upturns in the market though not traditional ones. Take advantage of what is hot.

Dave,

I hope you are joking about CAR...

CAR has a really appalling "prediction" track record in CA. In a September 2005 prediction for the future of our state, Leslie Appleton Young made light of any chance of a real estate bubble. She predicted a 10% increase in median price, sales volume of 630,000 homes, and builders would build 200,000 homes (50,000 less than was needed according to Appleton).

Need I say more?

If the number of foreclosures are expected to peak next year then I can see how that might increase the number of sales, but I really don't think there will be an increase of prices if we have a larger inventory. And a 20% increase in salaries sounds unreasonable. The bottom line is nobody can really predict what is going to happen because the rules are changing every day. There are government plans developed all the time in an effort to help homeowners. The loan modifications help some, but for many they only delay foreclosure. The banks may decide to dump their shadow inventory of foreclosures on the market all at once or they may slowly introduce their foreclosures to the market. I don't think there is one prediction that has been totally accurate because there are so many factors involved.

Hi Linda,

Could not agree more. Rational optimism is one thing but this is nothing more than kool-aid for the masses, just nuts. Unfortunately our (Realtors) already bruised credibility will now take yet another nuclear hit.

Linda, good post. Great comments. Maybe Mr. Yun's comments should have started out like this... "Once upon a time...."

I really don't know how our industry will ever be considered "professional" when we have someone in Yun's position making foolish statements that only lessen our credibility with the public. People tend not to forget losing gobs of money on the home they purchased after being reassured on TV that "now is a great time to buy".

There are so many resources out there for Realtors to educate, train and advance themselves I don't understand why some of us are REQUIRED to be members to participate in this business. Why hang on and continue funding a bloated bureaucracy? Reminds me of belonging to a labor union that no longer serves a productive purpose.

Maybe he should not make predictions after Happy Hour -- New Jersey has been hit pretty hard as well

You are so right... a good dose of reality would do everyone good...... it is much better than blowing sunshine and warm wind towards people... when they go and try to make plans because of that kind of crap, they end up in a worse position than they were before.

Great post, Lenn..........

My broker recently complained about spin by politicians. I asked him to explain how the "Real Estate is Great" and "It's Always a Great Time to Buy" weren't spin. Politicians have nothing on REALTORS!

Anna...I don't disagree that CAR's prediction track record is bad. I was simply making the point that their 2010 forecast seems more plausible then NAR's. Maybe Ms. Appleton Young will get it close to right this time...who knows, even a blind dog finds a bone once in awhile.

I do believe we are going to see foreclosures being released into the marketplace after the new year, but they will be dribbled slowly out by the banks. If not, the sheer volume being released all at once, would cause a huge tsunami of homeowners walking away all at once. The banks aren't stupid. Will values go up about 4%? I've heard about 3%! If this happens, and I DO see it happening in certain territories already, then it will happen definitely in about the 3rd to 4th quarter of 2010. But they have to fix the new HVCC rules for appraisers first.

We can neither participate in being Cheerleaders OR Dooms-dayers. I have a feeling that a lot more Realtors are going to be quitting the industry. The economy worsens , job losses, housing increases (4-sale REO) and short-sales get harder and harder to close. Loans are hard to get right now, and no one, whether it be NAR or a Realtor* can possibly predict 2010. We need to put away the crystal balls, feel our guts, and do what is right in front of us for now.

These last 2 years are unprecedented in history, and life is scary right now. To be honest, non of us know where this is all going. Not even the government.

Thanks for a GREAT discussion!!!!!!

You forgot PONIES!!!!

This is reason number 2,658,999 why I will never give my too hard earned money to NAR or any of my local boards. NAR is an over inflated, self promoting, 500 pound gorilla with no more sense of the real world than my parakeet's left toe. I will never be a part of large lobby group. Lobby organizations are at least 50% of what's wrong with our government.

Most all of our information today has a spin on it to benifit the person or organization delivering the message. You get both sides of the story with a spin to favor each side telling it. We are overloaded with biased information so much so, that it almost makes it almost impossible to take anything seriously. You have to be a detective to find the facts in information today.

Boulder City Steve

We have to keep in mind real estate conditions are regional. I am is Southern California, we wer hit as hard as any region. We are now seeing multiple offers. Of course most of these sales are short sales. The encouraging part is the demand is high. Demand creates increase. I don't know if Mr Yun's prediction will be accurate, but in my area I am clearly seeing a positive trend. Any positive movement is good news for our industry.

Not to worry. . . . . We won't be reading Dr. Yun's prognostications much longer. . . . He won't be able to get to his office because he won't be able to get his every increasing nose into his vehicle to get to work. . . . . . I almost missed this. . . . Broker Bryant's post today pointed to it. . . . I've been busy helping a young family find a new home. . . . . .

Linda, It's a prediction; who the heck really knows?

hercel spears, #107, if you were paying attention to this crowd you would have seen a HUGE contingent that thought the tax credit a bad idea and merely the latest instance of the government involving itself where it has no business.

howard, #108, i am with you. i only joined the board recently after 15 years and then ONLY for the Winforms. for 20 years i had been able to keep up with the paper versions and even create my own, but the pace of the changes to the forms accellerated so rapidly that i "caved" and joined.

joining was cheaper than buying the Winforms separately...i may reconsider that choice. truth be told, i cannot think of a single thing the NAR brings to the table.

c. mark willix, #166, i agree COMPLETELY, i was a member many years ago and resigned when the NAR came out AGAINST the flat tax because it did away with the mortgage interest deduction. single issue politics/lobbying are one of the greatest threats to this country. the narrow scope of the NAR is rarely in line with my free Libertarian and market tendencies

Eugene,

We are paying this guy his salary to figure this out.

Oh goody! Two of my favorite things-- sunshine and lolipops!! Now pass me the kool-aid.... Becky in FL

I too was at NAR in San Diego and believe you need to take Yun's comments with a grain of salt. His statements and predictions are very generalized, look at your local market and you should be able to tell if your market is one of the areas that will see appreciation and increase in home sales. Here in the Sierra Foothills (about 2 1/2 hrs from San Francisco) we are making headway on clearing the inventory of homes currently on the market. We are a retirement and vacation desitination for Bay Area residents and when their market improves so will ours. Like a previous comment, while markets are local we are all interconnected.

Great post. There is no way housing is done bottoming out. Lawrence Yun should be fired. Consumers already think Realtors are bad. With absurd comments and predictions like those Yun provided is only more fuel for th fire. I cover Yun and the Real Estate Market in my posts: Real Estate Fiction, The Unsustainable US Economy and Our Phony Real Estate Market.

As usual with anything I post, the comments are the best part. Did you know that there was a Yun Watch Blog? http://lawrenceyunwatch.blogspot.com/ It hasn't been updated recently but I suspect there will be another post soon.

I think it is totally unrealistic to be talking about a 4% increase in prices. In my area, Northern California ,prices are still declinging. Inspite the decline in inventory, due to Government moratoriums on foreclosures. In my area we have hundreds of homes in different stages of default, many are already bank owned and have not hit the market yet. There is still over an 8 month supply of properties, considering these properties. I just don't see clearing this inventory, and see an increase in prices by the end of 2010.

Sweet!! Can I get a loan from the bank based on the fact that my income will be going up by 4% next year? I will try tomorrow and see how it goes. In the mean time, don't count your chickens before they hatch. Hope you are all very well.

And NAR wants me to join and have my money and reputation to support this guy? For some data that I don't believe. What's even worse is that it sounds like over 50% of you don't believe him. Crazy times.

Great post, Linda! It sounds like this guy is living in a dream world or some other planet -- his predictions are clearly not in touch with the reality in the marekt, at least not for surein Chicago's metro area, the North Shore, North or Northwest suburbs!

Linda, I loved those quotes from others! I actually enjoy his numbers but I feel he might have been taking and mixing medications just before the convention! When your heads in the clouds all kinds of things come flying out of your mouth! Are those really 'the stats' or just a ouija board prediction he would WANT to have happen? I can see him swigging a bottle of Nyquil and a ouija board can't you? ;-)

I have no idea what will happen as everytime the wind changes direction in Washington the rules get changed.

Linda - I did miss this post and was brought her by Broker Bryant... When was he ever right? Never...my market her in Lakeland,FL is still down and what I mean with down are the prices. Unemployment is over 12 in my county and until that is going down prices will still go down. Real Estate is and always be local, but you know this - I think Yun doesn't know this.

In a market where none of us really know what is going to happen from one day to the next, I am surprised that Mr. Yun is publicly making this prediction. If something happens positive or negative at Pfizer, EB, Foxwoods, Mohegan Sun or Subase New London, we could see our market change overnight up or down.

Hopefully he is right, but I would be surprised.

Welcome back to southeastern CT.

Hopefully he is right, but I would be surprised.

Welcome back to southeastern CT.

While I'd like to to believe that everything will be rosie in 2010, but i I'd have to use more than widex on my rose colored glasses! I think that the recovery will be long and slow. much like 1990-95. There is nothing driving this "recovery" We need to see real economic growth before real estate sales will start to move. the stoch market is still in limbo and untill that gets stedally moving up We in real estate will not see any real growth.

Satisfaction is the difference between expectations & results. Give an conservative projection & let the market beat it - everyone feels good & we continue to recover...

I don't have any idea what will actually happen either. I hear a lot of gloom and doom about how bad things are, but I don't pay much attention to it. I just continue to concentrate on real estate education, work on and in my business, and each year my business grows. Predictions are worthless. They seem to depend on all other related conditions remaining the same. Does that ever happen?

I definitely want some of what Mr. Yun is taking!

Linda,

Great post. Unfortunately, I quit believing what Mr. Yun said long ago as he was claiming a recovery in sight where no signs existed. I think he wanted to offset the caos caused by the media but as a REALTOR I knew it was only hope. When will we really know the truth now?

The NAR, the state associations, the local boards, the real estate schools and yes, the broker owners, have one commodity to sell. We sell houses. They sell memberships, education and an office to hang your license. They need to paint a rosy picture to increase their memberships. It takes a lot of money to keep Chicago rolling, the state associations running and the office's front door open! They have to make it sound seductive!

The most frustrating thing about these types of predictions is the effect they have on the public. Now, the average home seller will expect their home in 2010 to be worth more than 2009's value. In those cities where values don't increase by any noticable amount (or further decline), sellers may be on the defensive trying to use information like that given by Mr. Yun to justify their homes' values--unrealistic, above market values. Now our job becomes more diffucult to explain away what has already been etched in the minds of the public.

I just snapped this great photo of Mr. Yun and one of his NAR economists. I tried to interrupt them to ask a few questions, but they said that they were busy preparing to make more predictions on the 'State of Real Estate'. If I didn't know better, I'd say they were smoking something.

Scott Miller, Realty Associates, Boca Raton, FL

Yun is just working his pay plan. Telling the people who pay his salary exactly what they want to hear.

Jennie Blackburn

www.StopFloridaForeclosureNow.com

Cheerleading is one thing, but making ridiculous comments and predictions just makes us all look bad. I cringe every time I see Yun's name in an article now. Didn't the last NAR economist admit that his career was ruined from making these sort of wild statements during his tenure. Those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Funny thing is, you don't need to do it. There will still be foreclosures to come. But if it continues to unfold as the market is doing today, prices may very well continue to be stable (at least in our market) and life will go on. People are buying homes and banks are lending. NAR making these statements has more of an impact on the perception of credibility and professionalism of Realtors (in a negative sense) than all the PR advertising they put out. NAR wants to help us...thanks but no thanks. The truth is out there...unfortunately NAR doesn't have a clue where.

Prices have to stop dropping and stabilize before we see them going up. They're still on a downslide in my neck of the woods. I think predictions of a 4% in crease for 2010 is more like a pipe dream. I'd be happy with stabilization.

Wow, I hope it somehow comes true. I will not hold my breath though, as I might suffocate~

Lawrence are YU from Arabia? Aren't you members tired of our institutions living fat off of our work? We should be compensated by low if not zero NAR fees for generating the pics and and data of which is dissemenated to thousands of web sites competing with MLS and used to market to us via licenseses. The executives in our assns. enjoy recession proof fat salaries. I SAY, MAKE MOST OF THEIR COMPENSATION SHOULD BE BASED MOSTLY ON COMMISSION. When we prosper they too can prosper! They are disconnected from our environment.

We have NAR acting like AARP, marketeering off our membership to sell us VERY LAME health insurance, software and on and on. This new health care plan offered by NAR was such a joke. It's not even as good as the quack AFLAC plan I already have. We've had our fees raised while all of us make less money.

I withheld a portion of my dues for the lobbying activities and now I'm looking for ways to work without NAR altogether. We need to take back control of our gov't, national and local associations and make it very clear that they are there to serve US the citizen membership! They are not there to hire economists and lobbyist who as far as I can tell, have little if any impact on helping us do our work and enhance our incomes. They are where United Way was a few years ago when they had executives pulling down huge salaries while the "little people" were told to "eat cake".

Lawrence is just a small part of the excesses that our institutions have morphed into. Yes, he's a cheerleader and can't be objective, His role is to be the "opiate for the masses" and a Kool-Aid mixer for us sheeple.

Our best and only hope is these times is in our God given abilties to look for opportunities in different ways than before. When things go down (or negative) there is also an "up" or "positive". It's the way our Universe is balanced and It's how I am trying to overcome this very trying time our profession is now facing and shall face for years to come.

Wow, to say the least, yes I live here in San Diego, I had friends from out of town that went to the conference. I have many contacts and friends in the industry and being a Real estate auctioneer, I have seen a lot in the last 24 months, unfortunate for many, friends loved ones and good people. We are seeing the systematic destruction of what we all worked so hard to create over the last ten years. If some saw the hardware and machinery being sold off at auction, to investors in other countries, it would just make you sick. We (the country) are in some serious trouble until we get money flowing through to consumers and small businesses and creative minds and hands untied so we can fire this economy up again. Fees and new taxes in California are strangling us here. It is deeply concerning. My recommendations: remind the sellers how fortunate they are to have buyers, take the deal, liquidate while you still can and hold onto your cash, and buyers jump in buy. It will get better for all of us, just not soon enough. Its all about money and accountability, I recently saw a t shirt that read: A recession is when your neighbor gets laid off, a depression is when you get laid off, redemption is when the president gets laid off.

Col. Sean Sutton

Falcon auctions Company, Sutton & Sutton Auctions

Great title! It really got my attention...

This is just more of the same from NAR. Oh, but don't worry - they now have a "short sale" DESIGNATION for those of you who a)don't believe the economist and b) have a few xtra c-notes laying around to pay for the logo on your business card...

NOV

2009

Linda,

I love all the comments from people who point out that "certain areas are different." Guess the basic spin here is that "their neighborhood is different." Yes, in fact, it's so good they've got their own localalized brand of sunshine and lollipops.

There's a great quote about this from Martin Goodman, President of LoanMLS.com He provided a definition:

The word is "Houseallucination" Definition: The belief that your specific neighborhood is different and isn't / won't decline.

That's my comeback to the "well, it's all very local, it's neighborhood by neighborhood. Right!

thanks again, Linda,

Joffrey

Linda,

There's a great quote about this from Martin Goodman, President of LoanMLS.com He provided a definition:

The word is "Houseallucination" Definition: The belief that your specific neighborhood is different and isn't / won't decline.

That's my comeback to the "well, it's all very local, it's neighborhood by neighborhood. Right!

thanks again, Linda,

Joffrey

This is amazing! I really think he is off base. Has he heard about the commercial market predictions!

Linda,

Thanks for the update and the good news:- )

We would love to believe those stats, but that's not the reality in our area! We are a rural area of mostly second homes bought by people who have discretionary income to spend or extra cash. With unemployment rates soaring plus impending HUGE tax increases for healthcare reform, cap and trade, etc., we see more foreclosures forthcoming. The good news is that homes and land are the lowest prices we have seen in 10 years so it's a GREAT time to buy. If someone ever wanted a cabin in the mountains with a view or overlooking a creek, there are some wonderful opportunities. It's also a good time for investors if they can hold a property for a couple of years.

And we're going to be making 20% more income? Sweet ------ With substantially lower home prices that means we will have twice the customers. Thanks Mr. Yun, we'll hold you to that!

The Regan Team

In the Beautiful North Georgia Mountains

Excellent post. Inflated predictions such as Yun's just make our job harder. People start the process looking at all Realtors as dishonest. They can see much of what is going on with their own eyes and want to find an agent that they can trust. Instead they start our viewing all Realtors with suspiscion.

Linda,

What a great post. I have been seeing alot of new construction in the Westport area. One of my clients is in the trades and working seven days a week. It usually starts in Lower Fairfield County and works its way up to Greater Danbury. Also, my sister is a Realtor in Clermont FL near Orlando and is so busy that she can't keep up. There are a lot of European investors who think now is the time to invest in the States. I can't believe that there will apprecaition across the board but there will be some pocket areas and hopefully we're all in them.

I just visited www.realtor.org and yes, the logo still reads: NAR is the Voice for Real Estate

But, judging from the majority of the comments listed above maybe it should read: NAR Members are the Voice for Real Estate

He usually qualifies his predictions, that he has been hired by the NAR and his Economic Predictions are geared to those who pay for his services (Pollyannish). If He Gave Doom and Gloom (Chicken Little) Predictions for The Trade Association they may Select a More Favorable Economist (Tells Me What I Want To Hear) Next Year.

Prepare For The Worst and Hope For The Best,

All The Very Best,

Walt Kaminski

Linda, great post! I've felt for some time that NAR is taking way too much of my hard earned money & providing too little in return. Yun makes me feel good when I read his stuff but soon I start to feel that Too Much Sugar sweetness I felt when Lesley Gore first added Sunshine, Lollipops and Rainbows to our consciousness.

It's interesting to see some folks argue with the concept that all real estate is local. Maybe that's a topic for another post.

Anyway, in Denver in the $200K & under price point, the Buyer's Market is over. I had buyers that bid on 12 homes before they were able to win one. Yes, it's because there's been a substantial drop in prices and now investors are seeing value. Isn't that how recoveries begin?

Carnac...

I just what I'm about to do to BB. I certainly wouldn't want to cheat you out of your due s :)

TLW...ROAR!

Ooops...

Typo. Sorry. They don't give us errors and omissions insurance on an AR embed :)

TLW...ROAR!

From the sounds of it, I'm glad I went to see Max Pigman instead. He did the Real Estate Marketing in 2010 and Beyond. Pretty interesting.

If anybody has a short-term memory please review the last guy the Realtor's threw at us:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Lereah

I'm an appraiser (MAI) as well as a licensed Realtor and I honestly was ashamed to admit to anyone I was a Realtor in 2007 with this Lereah clown shilling for the market. It was so blatant it was embarrassing to all Realtors in the profession. (Don't do a whole lot of brokerage work but keep my license active nonetheless.)

The mortgage bankers and appraisers played it much smarter by not having an economist on staff. It really isn't the job of the Realtors, Appraisers, Mortgage Bankers, etc. to be out there making market predictions.

This same clown was blaming appraisers for "killing deals" on this very web site. Sure there's some "out-of-market" guys out there but I honestly believe many have failed to realize just how much property values have declined and decide to "shoot the messenger".

If anybody is really that good at predicting the market they should be running bond or trading desk on Wall Street and not working as an economist for NAR.

If he were any good at forecasting he would be trading real estate futures or bond futures... not posing as a the economist clown for NAR. NAR was so wrong for so long they should stick to reporting facts.

real estate prices, and sales are local events.

Anytime anyone can say that the whole market is going up or down as a whole can not be made.

NAR has always been a cheerleader for the market, and really it's nice to have at least one organization spining the stats in a good way. Since the media loves the negative, NAR has to counter that message.

Supply and Demand control prices more than any other factor. Spin only effects consumer confidence.

real estate prices, and sales are local events.

Anytime anyone can say that the whole market is going up or down as a whole can not be made.

Supply and Demand control prices more than any other factor. Spin only effects consumer confidence.

Linda....This is what our dues brings us. It is disappointing.

Jerry Gray CRB,CRS,GRI / Prudential Carolinas Realty / Winston Salem, NC

One of the biggest cause of homeowners defaulting is because of loss of job. Are they providing jobs?

NOV

2009

Linda, I salute you for being discreet and more gentle than is warranted. On March 26, 2008, at my own blog site, I wrote the following: “For those unfamiliar with Mr. Yun, he is the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, which essentially means he has a real estate license to kill logic and sell snake oil optimism to any real estate agents or homeowners naïve enough to trust him. His predictions are dangerous for anyone planning their real estate business or house purchase plans around them. He was clearly mentored by his predecessor, David Lareah, now retired to Florida where, we can only pray, no one in his community is seeking his advice about the housing market. He too was a shameless huckster.”

A good trade association provides its members with honest information that helps them plan and execute their businesses. And then there are those like the NAR. I am an agent but, thankfully, not a member.

What a joke......if you believe that I'll sell you the Golden Gate Bridge......that is if China doesn't already own it!!! Real Estate agents and brokers are dying a slow death if they continue to hold onto unrealistic outlooks!

Linda,

Good morning. I love Real Estate [mostly the Florida's Waterfront Lifestyle I market within my unique Coastal Deep Water Community http://GulfHarbors34652.net ] but really, I have to agree with Michele # 1; Carnac's predictions might well be better for 2010.

Steven Zimmerman Realtor ABR GRI / Prudential Best Realty / GULF HARBORS FL 34652 http://retaggr.com/page/StevenZimmerman

I've got to say that I didn't feel like Yun was trying to shove sunshine up my pantleg. I was a bit surprised at his trend numbers for positive growth, but the meat of his presentation provided some statistical review that actually has some value. The prediction of +4% and +15% was the only thing that seemed pollyannaish, and frankly, I wasn't interested in that pontification anyhow.

Speaking from a demographic basis, we can be quite certain that the supply/demand curve will not sustain in its' current configuration. Builders are not building. People are still being born. Household creation is at a historic low, and that is creating a pent up reserve of new households which will emerge as the economy allows.

Bonnie: While I did not attend the commercial forum, I have time and again heard Yun caution of the issues in that market, and as I understand it, NAR hasn't moved away from their concern over Commercial. That presentation is also available here.

Is NAR pre-disposed to find the positive in real estate? Sure. Would you prefer that they searched out the worst aspects and drilled those into consumers heads? Not me. It's encouraging, though, to see the statement "Most renters are not qualified and should not be homeowners" featured prominently in the NAR analysis.

The presentation pointed out a lot of ongoing problems in the market. We've undergone a tremendous adjustment in our industry, one that will prove to be difficult but not insurmountable for both for consumers and the industry. I'm highly enthused about my next 5 years in the business, and that enthusiasm is not born of belief that property values are going to do an about face and skyrocket next year. I'll do better if we just grind this out, knowing I'm smarter and willing to work harder than the next guy.

It's all about jobs... Jobs, baby, jobs How can someone buy a house if they aren't working?

If economists were laid end to end across the US it would probably be a good idea.

I have to totally agree with #198. I have not been a fan of NAR since they turned on their members and started marketing our own listings back at us. Now they say they are going to make a huge profit on our DATA in a national database. Where do all these profits go? I certainly don't see my dues going down with all this profit we are making as an association?

It's all aboiut the DUE$ that are due in December. Tehy need the cash to $pend on more boondoggles like RPR.

I’m surprised by some of the harsh comments here. As pointed out by many, predicting is not an exact science even when done by so-called experts, so why not be positive? How foolish would the man look if after spending months pushing hard for extended and expanded tax credits, he predicts a tepid year? I agree with those who say that it’s a good time to buy if you want or need to and can afford it; and it’s a good time to sell if you want or need to sell and the conditions are right for the seller. Whether or not the market is optimal shouldn’t enter into it.

I agree that the NAR is trying to sugar coat the situation. My husband is a foreclosure attorney in Ohio. His caseload has almost doubled just in the last 3-4 months. In over 30 years of doing this, he has never seen so much "A" paper come through his office. In Ohio, it takes 9-16 months to get these homes through the system before they come on the market. Given that information, all I see are forces continuing to drive prices down. Those good loans will be houses in the $200,000 + markets. When you have that many distressed properties coming on the market in those price ranges, how can it be any different? Also, this administration has done nothing to stimulate small business and encouraging businesses to hire. Anyone who doe not need to see their home now, is going to hunker down and wait to see how this precarious economy plays out. I know predicting is not an exact science and I don't have Yun's credentials but to me this is common sense. I believe his predictions ultimately harm NAR's credibility as a reliable source of information.

And, with that, they want my dues....

WE are going to have 4% appreciation... REALLY?!?

Central Florida has a long way to go before we see 4% appreciation.

WOW as long as unemployment keeps going up, so will foreclosures. not to mention option arms are resetting into late 2010... high foreclosures will be around for atleast another year or two is my guess... we are where we have never been before, and those are some rosy numbers up top. CA, FL, NV, AZ will have even longer!!

AND there are so many unknowns like unemployment, new house starts, inflation, new loan mods, bank activity and interference, new regulation and on and on...

That said, positivity and the strength to move through and forward is so important. You can be realistic and still be positive. Easier said than done ;)

Thank you so much for your informative comments. I'm working on a follow up about the subject as I take all of your input and let it roll around in my brain for a few days.

The comments include a bit of everthing from serious to funny and complete with photos and audio!

Mark Warner gets my "Brevity is the Soul of Wit" award for his comment....

If economists were laid end to end across the US it would probably be a good idea.

Linda,

I read a lot of the comments and what can you say other than real estate is local. Some markets are improving for whatever reason.

Sales may be brisk in some areas of CA, even in my market, but the median price is in the toilet, the DOM is through the roof and getting an escrow to close on time is the rarity. With CA legislators mucking up our economy I don't see things improving for CA real estate anytime soon. I do want to be one of those agents who sees the positive side of things...and there is one, buyers who were priced out of the market are now able to purchase a home and that's exciting.

NOV

2009

I've bought 7 houses in 4 cities and dealt with hundreds of real estate agents because I've also been staging homes for 7 years. I have yet to meet an agent who will say "this is a bad time to buy a house".

So why would you be surprised at what the NAR says? Isn't it their job to promote optimism and convince regular people that they still have a need for real estate agents?

Besides, October sales were the highest they've been in 2.5 years!

I truly believe it is a good time to buy a house in my area. Is it the best time? I don't know. I don't have a crystal ball. However, I have been telling clients and potential clients (depending on their circumstances) that it's not a good time to sell. I have also told potential clients in the past it wasn't a good time for them to buy. Even in what I consider to be a great time to buy, I have often subscribed people to my email campaign about budgeting/credit/finance and told them to hang tight and get their houses (finances) in order before they buy. I have an investor right now that has cash for an investment property and I've counseled him to pass on several homes lately so he'll get a good one, not just one to get one. I'd much rather turn someone away who is not in a position to buy. People will tell just a fraction of people about a good experience versus a bad experience (which could be me putting someone into a house when they aren't ready). There are many ethical agents out there, and it's a shame we get a bad rep due to so many others... others who often leave the business within a year.

I have to agree with other posts- real estate is definitely local. I sell in a resort/vacation home market and yes things are moving (mostly bank owned), but until the jobs return, we won't see the borrowers. JOBS, JOBS, JOBS- that is the bottom line in this market/economy.

Isn't it great how everyone thinks they are an expert and the one that knows what will happen? Nobody knows for sure what will happen and only time will tell.

We all have decisions to make every day and the biggest one is "What are we going to focus on?".

People who succeed focus on what they can control!

Whitney, This is the most relevant posting on this thread!

He's definitely optimistic. My concern is the mortgage resets as shown in the graph above.

Things are looking up, but this sounds very optimistic.

NOV

2009

Um is Mr. Yun not realizing real estate is local? Not a prediction that would apply to everyone and everywhere even if he was right.

NOV

2009

There were three Economists who decided to climb a high mountain. During their climb a blinding snow storm halted their ascent.

When the snow storm abated the three Economists quickly removed maps and charts from their backpacks.

After studying them for over an hour one of the three Economists looked up and said: “According to our maps and charts, we are on that mountain over there.”

NAR Economist Leah split when the going got tough.

NAR Economist Yun is desparately trying to pump up a sagging real estate market balloon.

NOV

2009

Here in California we were honored with our Economist from our state board. It was very interesting, with about the same amount of accuracy as NAR; that the power point slides above thier head as they were touting recovery painted quite a different picture. I do hope for a better future but feel it is disrespectful of our intellect and misleading to newer agents not to be more honest about the near future. I think many agents were using this info to decide whether they could hang in there or whether they should consider a new career. Using false predictions to bolster membership is unconscionable in my opinion. They should instead focus on basics, technology and "best practices" to clean up our name in the public forum.

MAY

Just thought I'd wake up this post a bit... It's always fun to see if the forecast was right or not...

Case Schiller shows the Composite 10 CSXR down -1.20% from December 2009 to December 2010.

Case Schiller shows the Composite 20 SPCS20R down -2.38% from December 2009 to December 2010.

The Case Schiller index for San Diego is up 1.71% from December 2009 to December 2010.

OK, here's the official stats from NAR itself:

http://www.realtor.org/files/research/localmarket/ca_sandiego.pdf

http://www.realtor.org/research/research/ehsdata

Oops. Guess home sales in San Diego actually declined. Guess appreciation in San Diego was below the 4.0% forecasted as well.

JUN

NAR is the gift that keeps on giving.

Joffrey Long

Southwestern Mortgage Inc.

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Linda Davis

Gales Ferry, CT

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