According to a June 2009 report by the Federal Housing Finance Agency, the typical housing downturn, from peak to valley, lasts 3¾ years historically speaking. However, the same report found that the typical housing upswing, from valley to peak, lasts 6½ years.
Doug's Take: I found this very interesting and reflected on our latest downturn. In Sacramento County, we statistically peaked in August 2005 @ a median price of $392,750. 3.75 years would come out to May 2009. Well, as i've been saying for months now, we statistically bottomed out in Sacramento County in February 2009. Amazingly close to 3.75 years of a downturn. Granted this one was much steeper than a typical downturn but our upswing before it was much sharper than normal. My personal opinion is Sacramento has bottomed out and we will see very slow and steady growth over the next few years. Yes, we might bounce around when you look at month to month numbers but overall, slow and steady growth.
clear skies,
doug
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