1. Homeowners come to terms with the harsh reality of declining values.  I believe we will see movement in the move-up market. Enough time has passed that the reality has set in. Those "waiting it out" for a higher price will decide to sell and move on.
2.  The return of jumbo money. Behind the scenes, I suspect lenders are trying to figure out how to capture a lucrative market that has been kicked to the side of the curb: Buyers with great credit, solid assets, and high incomes. Wait...tell me again why these people should pay far higher rates than the store clerk with no assets and a 650 credit score????? Which loan would you rather have?
3. Washington will finally "get it" when it comes to jobs being the #1 issue with the economy.  Okay, you can give money away to banks, car buyers, and real estate buyers all you want. But no one is going to buy anything if they don't have a job, or are afraid of losing the one they have. Washington will come to the rescue.
4. The economy gets a nice boost when homeowners finally need to fix their houses.  My new client works at the local Home Depot. He told me his store did well over $300k in business on Black Friday and management was astounded (okay...there are a lot of Christmas trees in that number). But I say that many homeowners have held off as long as they can and will need to repair/upgrade their homes next year.
5. Babyboomers revitalize the second home market.  I know, I know. The standard theory is that the second home market is the last thing the rebound. But I am going to go out on a limb and say that prices are ridiculously low and Babyboomers are ridiculously ready to escape from the madness of this economy. PS They are also sitting on equity from owning their homes for so many years.
6. Investors will be out in force and they want real estate. We all know that investors with cash are out in force competing with first time buyers for real estate. But next year I predict this market will really ignite. Why? How about once in a lifetime opportunity to grab dirt cheap properties AND good terms to finance said properties. The non cash investor will join the property grab.
7. Surprise! The tax credit ends for first time homeowners and they still keep buying houses! Want to know a secret? They are buying for the same reason as investors. Not because of the tax credit. Because houses are cheap. They will still be around and still be buying houses.
8. The world does not come to an end when ARM loans start to adjust, but a refi boomlet could help the mortgage industry. I have analyzed more ARM loans than you can shake a stick at. And I just don't see it as a disaster waiting to happen. At least not next year. Rates will remain low enough for most homeowners to absorb the adjustment into their budget, or refinance into a 30 year fixed rate loan.
9. The quality of people in the real estate industry continues to upgrade. The pretenders and hacks have mostly fallen by the wayside leaving the smartest and most committed in the business. Competition keeps shrinking.
10. Marketing is much cheaper than it used to be, thanks to social media.  All that postage. All those postcards, magnets, calendars and trinkets. Gift baskets at closing. Newsletters. Forget those. Now you have Facebook, Twitter, ActiveRain, and a website. And it all costs much less, and allows potential clients a much better look at who you are and what you stand for. You gotta love that.

Written by Janet Guilbault, Mortgage Banker, Broker, and Direct Lender Based Out of the San Francisco Bay Area