Perusing around the internet I came across some interesting statistics from the Mid-Year California Association of Realtors Report that I thought many of us would find interesting especially in this current market. As we are all struggling through this time of higher interest rates and slow moving inventory these numbers seem to put things in more perspective about the current market.
Consumer Confidence
Has the lack of consumer confidence contributed to the housing slowdown? Not according to the mid year numbers. It seems that although sales of existing homes are declining consumer confidence continues to be on a upward trend. From it's index low of 60 in March of 2003, it has steadily climbed to it's current levels of 120. While housing sales have dropped from their highs in April 2006 of 660,00 units, down to it's current level as of April 2007 to 380,000 units.
Median Time On The Market
Some improvement here. From it's lows in June of 2004 of 22 days on the market to it's most current high on January 2007 of 74 days on the market, the numbers are showing some sign of improvement. It appears that the median time on the market has fallen from it's January 2007 index of 74 days to 53.5 days as of April 2007.
Unsold Inventory By Price Range
Listed by price and months supply
$0-200k 15 Months
$200-250k 14.5 months
$250-300k 13 months
$300-500k 11 Months
$500-700k 8.5 months
$700-1000k 6.5 months
$1,000k 6.5 Months
Let's Take A Look At The Lenders Side of Things
Prime vs Sub-prime vs Other Loans
From the first quarter of 2003 till the present, sub-prime loans in California have been on the rise. However, despite all the news reports focusing on the sub-prime troubles, only 14% of all outstanding loans in California are sub-prime. Which leaves 83% as prime and 3% government.
Percent Of First Time Homebuyers With Zero Downpayment
As I am sure this statistic is no surprise to us in the real estate industry, the percentage of buyers wanting a zero downpayment has risen from it's low of 5% in 199 to it's current level of nearly 40%.
Here's the most Significant. First time Buyer Housing Affordability Index
In 2003 50% of households could afford to purchase a home in California. Currently in the 1st Quarter of 2007. that number stands at 25%. That is half of the number of buyers that can afford a home.
What does all this mean? According to the report, the housing market may bottom out sometime in 2007. Rates will remain the same due to the Fed not changing the Fed Funds Rate. However, in my own opinion I believe this slump will remain going into the 1st quarter of 2008. What's your opinion?
You can view the whole powerpoint report with the above charts at CAR Powerpoint Presentation
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