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New York - Commercial Real Estate Bust – Is it next or is it already here?

By
Real Estate Broker/Owner with New York Real Estate Experts

Commercial real estate is currently under greatest stress since, 1990s. CRE prices have plunged by 35%. More declines prices expected in 2010, some CRE sector it might fall by another 30% from the present level.

 

Here some more information form Forbes.com

--Massive refinancing requirements. There is a large concentration of CRE debt maturities this year in the $3.5 trillion CRE debt market, which will give rise to very high refinancing requirements. This could not happen at a worse time, given that the financial sector is already under considerable stress. Over the next two years approximately $500 billion per year in CRE loans fall due. Should a significant proportion of these loans not be refinanced, there will be an unwelcome increase in CRE supply on an already glutted market.

--Cyclical factors. Typically the CRE sector reacts with an 18-24 month lag to changes in the job market. Since a major part of the increase in unemployment occurred in the early part of 2009, its effect on the CRE market will likely be felt over the next year.

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