The PMI Mortgage Insurance Company has published its Summer 2007 Economic Real Estate Trends. For Sacramento area home owners, the news is not good.

While PMI’s previous model was tuned for the rapid appreciation of the first half of the decade, the revised model gives more weight to current price trends, area volatility, and the increased use of unfriendly variable interest rate products. While the inputs have been updated, the output is the same:

“…a risk index that predicts the likelihood that home prices in a given metropolitan statistical area will be lower in two years.”

How does Sacramento stack up? How about 9^th among the top 50 MSA’s in the nation, and a 56% probability of lower prices in 2009.

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