The whole year of 2009 was challenging in some segments. In other segments, it has shown surprising resilience and strength. It is one of the markets in Gwinnett County, GA, that has shown relative strength, even into the last quarter of 2009. And it started off fairly strong.
Looking back over the last couple of months for Duluth, GA, the market has moved... but only a little. The biggest thing has been the First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit. It has had a GIANT pull on the market, and when it "expired" (it was renewed and expanded before it actually expired, but the effect seemed to expire) it altered the direction of the market... as it did when it was enacted.
Let's knock out a few numbers...
- There were 527 Listings as of 12/31/2009
- December currently reports with 57 sales
- The Absorption Rates for Lawrenceville break down as follows:
- 12 month average - 9.02 months of inventory
- 6 month average - 8.30 months of inventory
- 3 month average - 8.55 months of inventory
The link above explains Absorption Rates more fully, but basically, it tells us how long it would take to sell all of the property on the market at the current rate.
Sales for Duluth in December were up 5.6% compared to December 2008. This was after November was up 54.8% year over year. Days on Market also decreased by 23 days to 87 days. One thing to keep in mind though is that there may still be sales that are unreported.
By Segment...
The market is divided up into six segments.
Under $200k...
There were 147 listings and 28 sales in December. Looking back the 12mo/6mo/3mo Absorption Rates were 5.6/4.9/5.3 months. I expected the 3mo rate to be a slightly better because of the accelerating sales, but that wasn't the case. However, since 6 months is considered a balanced market, none of these numbers are bad. The Under $200k segment is the strongest, but only slightly stronger than the $400k - $600k segment.
$200k - $400k...
There were 163 listings and 14 sales in December. The 12mo/6mo/3mo Absorption Rates were 8.9/8.6/8.6 months. I also expected the First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit to have a little more impact on the 3mo rate, but sales remained steady. The $200k - $400k segment has been pretty consistent in 2009. Looking back at our historical numbers for the last couple of years, and these are great numbers.
$400k - $600k...
There were 49 listings and 11 sales in December. The 12mo/6mo/3mo Absorption Rates were 7.1/7.4/5.7 months. This segment shouldn't have been affected by the tax credit as lower priced homes. I was a little surprised at the way the sales picked up in the last quarter. However, since this is a fairly affluent area, I shouldn't have been shocked by the numbers.
$600k - $800k, $800k - $1m and Over $1m...
There were a total of 168 listings and 83 sales in the last 12 months. The Absorption Rates can be calculated, but they really aren't meaningful. A couple of extra or missed sales make a big swing in the data. Also, these homes are not likely to be affected by the old tax credit or the newer expanded tax credit.
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