Statistics can be manipulated. But the evidence shows a 17.5% decline in house values on the Eastern Shore in 2009. Coupled with our deceptive and behind-the-rest-of-the-nation 1% decline in 2008, housing prices are almost back to pre-Hurricane Ivan levels of 2003-04.
The picture is a bit brighter in terms of the number of homes sold. Low interest rates, the first-time homebuyer tax credit and an abundance of inventory and incentives helped check the decline in the total sales to only 3.5% compared to 2008.
For the year, 803 homes sold between Spanish Fort and Point Clear, compared with 833 last year. Of these sales, 35% (281) were new construction and 14% (110) were foreclosures or short sales. That means "regular" existing home sales represented only half of homes sold.
Perhaps because of the entry of first-time buyers into the market, a little more than half of all sales were $200,000 or lower; and 82% of all sales were under $300,000. Yet, at present, only about a third of the Eastern Shore homes for sale are priced under $200,000.
Sellers of homes priced over $300,000, which represent a third of the Eastern Shore inventory, will be under great pressure to compete for the few buyers in this market. Realtors and market-watching investors expect foreclosures to become more commonplace in the upper price ranges.
But builders with new construction in the $200,000-and-lower range are making sales.
Inventory is still high, with some 1,144 homes on the market (compared to 1,082 this time last January). There are no indicators to show that prices have hit bottom or stabilized locally.
At the risk of sounding like a used car salesman (my apologies to all those in that noble profession - Guy, I mean you!) it's a good time to buy, as the home-buyer tax credit has been extended to existing home owners who qualify and buy before the April 30 deadline.
In fact, buyer activity increased during the Christmas and New Year's holidays, local Realtors say. Hopefully, that's a sign of things to come.
So now, a look back ...
On the Eastern Shore, the 4th quarter of 2009 showed improvement in the number of sales, which rose to 183 compared with the 162 during the 4th quarter of 2008, when the housing and banking crisis crested. Average sales price declined from $260,838 during the quarter last year to $230,117 this past quarter.
For the year, the average sales price fell from $287,736 in 2008 to $237,020 in 2009.
Fairhope: 64 homes sold in the 4th quarter, up from 57 during the same time in 2008. Average price was $265,091, compared with $304,455 the previous year. Average time to sell rose from 172 days to 211 days.
For the year, 271 homes were sold, down from 293 in 2009. Average sales price dropped from $353,765 to $275,373 (not a typo). Days on market rose from 197 to 221.
Daphne/Montrose: 72 homes sold in the 4th quarter, nearly unchanged from the 69 sales in the 4th quarter of 2008. Average sales price increased from $248,922 to $250,140. Days on market rose from 166 to 176.
During all of 2009, 303 homes were sold, compared to 321 in 2008. Average sales price was $238,999, down from $271,599 in 2008. Days on market stretched from 150 to 170.
Lake Forest: 27 homes sold, up from 15 in the 4th quarter of 2008. Average sales price dropped from $139,600 in the 4th quarter of 2008 to $134,207 this last quarter. Days on market rose from 124 to 132.
For the year, there were 104 sales, compared to 99 in 2008. Average price dropped from $157,355 in 2008 to $142,757 in 2009. Days on market decreased from 159 to 141.
Spanish Fort: 20 homes sold in this past quarter, again almost unchanged from the 21 sales in the 4th quarter of 2008. Average sales price went from $268,198 to $175,594 (not a typo). Days on market decreased from 130 to 114.
In 2008, 125 homes were sold vs. 120 in 2008. Average price dropped from $277,245 to $227,496. Days on market rose from 140 to 149.
Inventory: Here are the current homes on market
Spanish Fort: 155
Daphne/Montrose: 362
Fairhope: 523
Lake Forest: 104
Comments(0)